The Portland Trail Blazers have had a successful season in many ways, rising from the depths of the NBA standings to at least mediocrity. After several years of lottery lunging, both the results and the style of play that has produced it look pretty good in Portland.
One facet of the game that’s hasn’t improved much for Portland is inbound plays, particularly crucial ones at the end of the game. The motif switches from scoring terrors to comedy of errors, a concerning predicament for a team looking
to win close games.
One reader, noticing this phenomenon, has inquired about it in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag. Let’s take a look.
Hi Dave,
Sorry if this question comes off too negative. But after the Charlotte game, I have to ask. Does the NBA track how many times a team has a turnover while inbounding the ball in the last minute of a close game? And if that stat exists, does this Blazers season break every record in that category?
Gabe
I am not sure if that stat exists, but I imagine it must somewhere. I’m betting there’s an assistant coach or digital media analyst for a team that knows the answer. Maybe some of our readers do as well. Look in the comments after this publishes to see if they can guide you.
But yeah, this has been an issue for the Blazers pretty consistently throughout the season. I was at that Charlotte Hornets game and got to see the last-minute inbounds play that put you over the edge firsthand. It had the hallmarks of Portland inbounds plays this season. That’s not a compliment, either.
So let’s take a look at why this is happening.
First, this is tied to Portland’s lack of three-point shooting, or distance jump-shooting in general. The Blazers can’t spread the floor. There’s no Steph Curry on ball, Ray Allen off ball, or even a Klay Thompson hybrid that teams have to worry about. Opponents aren’t leaving Portland’s shooters wide open; it’s not that bad. But nobody has to stick in their pocket either. Being close is close enough. That means defenses can stay in their initial set positions longer, banking on reacting to whatever the Blazers do instead of having to anticipate what they do.
The difference is striking. Let’s say I’m guarding Curry on that possession. He’s the best of all time (and an extreme example, but go with it). I’m scared of him even catching the ball. I want to move to deny him, which means shadowing him, trying to stay between him and the inbounds passer. But what if a screen comes behind me while I’m doing this? I better be watching back there and listening for my teammates to call it out. But what if he quick-cuts the other direction while I’m half glancing back to check for screen action? He only needs micromillimeters to get his shot off. I better be ready to cover that area of the floor too. And if he catches it he can go up, sideways, or even back. If the ball heads that way I’d better…etc. etc. etc.
You can see where I, as a defender, have probably made three moves on the floor (and several dozen in my mind) before the ball is even inbounded. And every move I make causes my teammates to have to react, helping cover the space I just left or might be leaving.
Here’s that same possession with the Blazers. “There’s my man. Over there is another guy I might have to help on if the ball goes that way. Got it. As long as I can close, we’re good. Now let’s see what they do.” I don’t have to act. I don’t have to anticipate. All I have to do is move with the offensive player(s) and react. That’s much easier defense than I have to play against Steph.
Here’s another issue. The Blazers don’t have that many isolation scorers. The list runs: Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, maybe Shaedon Sharpe.
Those five aren’t going to be on the floor at the same time. For every one you take off, that’s one more person catching the ball that the defense doesn’t have to worry about much in a short-clock situation. I love Toumani Camara! I love Donovan Clingan! This team has experienced so much goodness over the past two seasons because of them. If either one of them gets the ball with three seconds remaining in the game and Portland needing a shot to tie or win, I’m pretty much chalking it up as a loss. That skill is just not in their wheelhouse. If they catch it as the primary scorer, something went wrong with that play.
For this reason, the defense already chalks up at least a couple of players that they don’t need to worry about catching the ball in a last-second inbounds situation. If Clingan is setting a screen for Avdija in this situation, who are you going to anticipate getting the rock? Who are you going to guard? Both Avdija’s defender and Clingan’s are going to go to Deni! They literally don’t care if Donovan catches it. They know they have time to recover to him enough to make any shot he takes low-percentage. That extra attention is going to make it exponentially harder for Avdija to catch the ball and get a clean shot.
This calls into question whether the Blazers even want to run much action for the guy they’re trying to get free. Sure, those screens are helpful in theory, but at what point are you simply bringing more defenders into your prime player’s defensive zone to gum up the works? They’ll have an initial scheme, but it quickly devolves into, “Please, Deni, just get the ball!”
We’re not done. Let’s say the Blazers do manage to get the ball in the hands of one of their isolation guys. How many of them really, really demand a double-team? Obviously some of them do get doubled in these situations for the reasons we just described, but let’s say the defense is in simple single coverage. How worried are they about sending a second man?
The answer is: not too worried in most situations. Two things are going to scare defenses on end-of-game plays. One is someone catching the ball on a cut to the hoop and getting an easy conversion or foul before the defense can compensate. The other is a player starting a hard drive, getting the defender moving backwards, then pulling up or stepping back for an open jumper. Both of those possibilities require an extra defender to be in place immediately, before the move even develops.
How often do Portland players do this, though? First, They don’t get passes on the way to the hoop in the halfcourt offense under normal circumstances unless it’s an alley-oop that took several seconds and dribbles to set up. Second, Sharpe and Grant are the only Blazers with a good pull-up jumper. But Sharpe has trouble getting past defenders with his own dribble and cannot shoot the three well enough to make them respect his step-back. Grant is better at those things but his shots take far more time to set up than Shaedon’s or Deni’s…time the clock doesn’t allow on these possessions. Also neither one is apt to pass once their move is started, so once they catch and begin their motion, the defense can blitz them.
Long story short, the defense doesn’t have to double-team, or even shade too hard, at any time before the Blazers catch the ball. They can feel confident in single coverage along with later help, if necessary. With every defender confidently staying home on their man, every Blazer and every bit of the court remains covered.
The one guy who might provide a counter to this is Avdija. But the opponents know this too. Remember the “Defending Steph” script just above? Remember all the options and threats just on his initial move and shot, let alone the driving and passing threat we didn’t even cover in that paragraph? Well, here’s the corresponding script for Avdija’s defender: “Deny Deni. If he gets the ball anyway, stick to him and guard his right hand against the dribble.” That’s it. They don’t have to worry about a contested jumper from him. He may make it, but that’s still a good bet for the defense. They don’t have to worry about him passing to anyone else. The threats aren’t that big and can be single-covered. Basically, if the ball doesn’t go to Deni, the defense wins. If it does and the defender stays in front of him, the defense still wins.
That’s a very short list of responsibilities compared to the more complex threat from Golden State. It allows Deni’s defender to concentrate on him, on the inbounds pass, and on the line between him and the bucket. It’s literally the most basic form of defense, but that’s all they really need against the Blazers.
Understanding this, we can now describe more fully Portland’s troubles inbounding late-game.
First of all, there’s one guy they’re trying to get the ball to: Deni.
Second, they’re running action to try to get Deni free, but defenses ignore it and stay laser-focused on Avdija. Watch the screens and the cuts the Blazers are trying to execute. Defenders are barely moving most of the time in favor of overplaying Avdija and the inbounds pass.
This means that, after all the motion and whatnot, the inbounds passer still finds nobody open. The defense just didn’t bite. The passer finds himself standing in a stationary position trying to get the ball to one of his guys, but each guy has an active defender in the vicinity ready to deflect or steal the pass. That’s hard on your local YMCA court, let alone in the NBA with the best athletes in the world defending. And notice the subtle shift here! The defense is supposed to have to react to the offense, guessing and playing on their heels. With the five-second clock ticking and nobody open, the offense has to react to the defense. It’s all backwards…not a good position to find yourself in.
Even the best defense can’t cover everything, though. So they leave one path to an open pass available. The intended recipient (usually Avdija) gets shaded towards the sideline, cutting towards the inbounds passer. This has several advantages for the defense:
- The ever-nearing sideline acts as another defender. Avdija can’t go out of bounds and catch the ball, so the space in which the inbounder can execute the pass is constantly narrowing. This forces the inbounder to make a quick decision about when and where to pass before Deni runs out of real estate.
- If Avdija catches the ball, he’s headed away from the basket. That means he either has to turn 180 degrees for a quick shot or take time trying to correct course, bleeding clock and allowing the defense to set up against him.
- If Deni corrects course to try and open up more space for the pass and subsequent move, he only has two choices: cut right back into the defender who’s trailing him or cut further down the sideline away from the inbounds passer. Either way, the pass becomes more difficult because of passing angle. And guess what? Whether Avdija reverses course or parallels the sideline, the trailing defender is now right there, in between the inbounder and Avdija.
The end result of this is often a rushed pass or miscommunication between Avdija and the inbounder. The inbounds passer has to make a quick decision about how (and whether) to get the ball to Deni before the defender and sideline pinch him. Sometimes the ball gets there but it’s bobbled. Often the inbounder expects Deni to cut down the sideline but Deni doesn’t, leading to a missed pass and a turnover. Or the two communicate directly but the defender disrupts the pass or forces it to be thrown at an angle that cannot be caught. Sometimes Deni catches it but gets stalled because the defender is on top of him, he’s at the sideline, and there’s little to no way to make a move. None of these options are good.
Here’s the upshot. I shouldn’t be able to type sixteen paragraphs about all the things that can go wrong with a single inbounds play. And yet I just did, without any trouble, and we didn’t even cover everything.
What can the Blazers do to fix this? They do have a couple, limited options.
- They can put more of their isolation scorers into these end-of-game plays. Jrue Holiday or Jerami Grant could probably drift out towards the halfcourt line and catch the ball freely while still providing a scoring threat from there if Avdija can’t catch the ball on the initial attempt. The downside is, this will mess with the initial screening action because Portland’s best screen-setters are also their non-scorers who will now be out of the game.
- They can create more constant motion off-ball even after their initial action, particularly cutting towards the hoop. This likely won’t free up a clear layup off of an inbounds pass but it will keep defenders having to drift towards the bucket to prevent same, freeing up more space at the top of the court for an inbounds pass and shot.
- They might try a play where Avdija heads towards the sideline like he’s always forced to do, but the inbounder knows that as soon as he passes Deni the ball, he (the inbounder) will cut hard right towards the hoop, allowing Deni to pass him the ball right back give-and-go style, catching the overplaying defenders off-guard and allowing a potential layup or foul.
- They should probably coach their players to keep moving and keep their heads in the play even after their initial action is over no matter what, because sometimes they kinda don’t, and then everybody from both teams is watching the inbounder trying to get the ball to Deni, with comical results. If it ain’t working, set a screen, make a cut, or just go get the damn ball. Anything is better than another turnover.
Failing all of that, the right move is to get more shooting and scoring threats on the roster so that the options become greater and defenses have to think more. Until that happens, the window to success in these situations is going to be cracked narrowly instead of wide open. Since a small opening is easier to defend than a wide one, that’s going to be bad news for the Blazers.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
