BYU returns home for the first time since defeating Arizona State 27-20 on Halloween. A lot has happened since then. The Cougars dropped the Holy War for the first time in seven years, losing 28-20 to the Utes. They now sit at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They still have a legitimate shot at a Playoff berth. First things first — beating Baylor.
The Cougars enter the matchup as 7.5-point favorites. The game kicks off Saturday at 1:30pm MT on FOX. Let’s explore five questions surrounding
the matchup between the Bears and Cougars.
What is at stake for both teams?
To put it simply, if BYU loses to Baylor, they can kiss any shot at a Big 12 title game berth or College Football Playoff appearance goodbye. They are already on the bubble, as it were. Losing to the Bears would cause that bubble to burst dramatically. The Cougars would be looking at another trip to the Pop-Tarts or Alamo Bowl, most likely.
For Baylor, they currently have the same record in Big 12 play as BYU. They still have something of a pulse in the race to get to Arlington. Their brutal schedule to finish the season also has them controlling their own destiny. After their trip to Provo, they host Texas Tech and then travel to Houston to finish the year. They need to win out and likely have one of Utah or Texas Tech lose an additional game.
But if Baylor loses this game, their hopes of getting to Arlington go from slim to none.
What has Baylor done since firing head coach Dave Aranda?
Whenever a program fires a long time head coach midseason, the results certainly can vary. For Baylor, it looks like it fired the squad up. The Bears lost at Kansas on October 25 in a gutting 25-24 defeat. News broke not long after that Baylor had fired Aranda after seven seasons at the helm in Waco. All Baylor has done since interim head coach Joe Klanderman took over is beat UCF (something BYU can’t say this year) and Iowa State by a combined score of 83-40.
Their offense has been explosive. Along with those 83 points, they have over 900 yards of total offense in those two games. The run game has caught fire, with 378 rushing yards in those two games combined.
Where are the advantages for BYU against Baylor?
As mentioned, Baylor’s offense is scorching-hot the last two weeks. According to ESPN’s SP+ metric, those came against the 69th (UCF) and 94th (Iowa State) ranked defenses in the country. BYU sits at 20. The Cougars are by far the best defense the Bears have faced this season. Baylor wants to run the ball. BYU ranks 20th in rush yards allowed per game. The next strongest rushing defense Baylor faced was TCU, when they mustered just six points.
The quarterback matchup also favors BYU. Bear Bachmeier posses a 141.7 passer efficiency rating. DJ Lagway checks in at 128.2. Lagway has the worst completion percentage in the Big 12.
Baylor also has one of the worst passing defenses in college football, ranking 108th in yards allowed per game. Bachmeier and his weapons need to take shots downfield, especially with upstart freshman Legend Glasker.
Lastly, BYU certainly has the advantage given this game is in Provo.
Where does Baylor present challenges for BYU?
Like BYU, Baylor also possesses a solid run defense. They rank 27th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed. BYU has faced two stout run defenses already in Notre Dame and Utah. Baylor is not too far behind those two against the run. Running LJ Martin was on a very limited snap count against Utah. Hopefully, another week to get back into the groove will give Martin the confidence to let it rip against Baylor.
Baylor’s defense ranks third in the FBS in havoc rate, meaning roughly one in five plays ends in a tackle for loss, sack, interception, or pass breakup. BYU just faced an aggressive, havoc-creating defense in Utah and things did not go well in the second half. Baylor ranks second in FBS with 37 sacks this year. They have been getting sacks from everyone, not just one or two stars. Garrick Ponder leads the team with just four. 13 Baylor defenders have more than 1.0 sacks.
Also, BYU needs to be wary of Lagway’s legs. If the Cougars get good coverage downfield, Lagway can ruin a good gameplan by just taking off and using his athleticism to get key conversions. The BYU pass rush needs to be disciplined.
Which non-quarterbacks could decide the game on either side?
As mentioned, LJ Martin looks to have a bigger impact for BYU’s run game than he did against Utah. Legend Glasker will test the back of Baylor’s defense several times. The Cougars need to land a couple of big shots with him downfield. Walker Lyons is slowly becoming one of the most solid tight ends in the Big 12. Bachmeier will look to him in key third down and red zone situations.
Gavin Freeman is Baylor’s best weapon. He ranks second in the Big 12 with 852 receiving yards. In the Big 12, only four receivers in the conference have been targeted more 20-plus yards down field than Freeman. He is basically their version of Glasker. The Bears have something of a thunder-and-lightning approach to the running back group. Caden Knighten brings the boom with 292 yards after contact this season. Ryelan Morris can beat you off the edge and turn on the afterburners. Also, be aware of tight end Tony Livingston in the red zone. He doesn’t have the gaudy stats but he does have four receiving touchdowns.
Prediction: BYU 27, Baylor 24
