While the Michigan Wolverines are ranked 15th in the AP Poll and SP+, the USC Trojans find themselves unranked by the humans but loved by the computers. Vegas has the Trojans favored this weekend, which
somewhat is due to location, but SP+ does have them as the better team outright, ranking 13th-overall thanks to the No. 1 overall offense.
That offense has been good on both dimensions, ranking 5th in the country at 6.41 YPC (Michigan is 6th at 6.39), but it is the passing game that could be the difference maker against the Wolverines. The raw stats are gaudy, as USC is 3rd in passing yards per game and 3rd in yards per attempt, though those numbers drop slightly to 19th and 12th, respectively, against Power Four opponents. Either way, this will be a huge challenge for the visitors.
Oh Mai
The center of USC’s early success is quarterback Jayden Maiava, who took over the starting job partway through last year. Maiava has been nothing but impressive so far, completing 70.5% of his passes for 11.4 YPA with 11 touchdowns and just one pick (last game against Illinois). Against Power Four opposition, Maiava is top 20 in passer rating, and while the Michigan defense will be his toughest test yet, the same is going to be said about facing him.
Maiava’s favorite target is Makai Lemon, a top-50 prospect who has exploded for 589 yards and 5 touchdowns already this season — the entirety of the Wolverines’ receiving corps has 748 yards and 2 scores. Though he is not the biggest target, that barely seems to matter; Maiava consistently looks to him in key moments, and he often just finds a way to make it happen.
This formula is nothing new for Lincoln Riley, as USC will live and die by its offense. The defense’s persistent struggles more or less necessitate a high-volume passing offense, which puts pressure on Maiava but also is surely a big motivator for any quarterback. In addition to Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane and tight end Lake McRee each have more receiving yards than any non-Donaven McCulley Michigan pass catcher, so there are many ways this aerial attack can win.
Both eyes open
It feels a little surprising to look back and see that Miller Moss threw for just 5.5 YPA last season in Ann Arbor. What is not surprising is to see his 3 passing touchdowns — coming against some of the worst coverage ever displayed — and his 51 (!!) pass attempts. Maiava threw the ball 43 times in the loss against the Illini and will likely drop back a ton again on Saturday.
Last year’s numerous disasters will be very present in the mind of every Michigan fan. While Wink Martindale toned it down as the season went on, that early game against USC highlighted all of the flaws of his aggressive approach. Unfortunately, some of those same issues have popped back up in the beginning of this year, and a blitz-happy approach would surely be burned again.
The Wolverines need to respect the production of Maiava and Lemon and ease off the gas a bit this weekend. Dropping extra defenders into coverage seems smarter than playing with fire, and the Wolverines have both the defensive backs to protect against the damage and the defensive line to cause trouble without overcommitting. That means that the Trojans’ effectiveness depends on how much Martindale can reel back his aggressive tendencies, as Michigan holds the keys to its own success.
