Ok, everyone, it’s the big one. Iowa-Oregon. Don’t get scared now.
What I mean is, don’t get scared of the weather. Because oh my GOD this weather forecast for Iowa City looks horrendous tomorrow. Right now, Friday looks great. High of 66. A little windy but nothing crazy. Chance of precipitation at 2 percent. Lovely!
Tomorrow? Not lovely. Not at all. You need to dress warm and find your rain gear. Find your rain gear now. The day starts in the upper 30s, climbs into the low 40s…and then the rain comes.
And it will rain all day. The forecast when this game kicks off?42 degrees with a 99 percent chance of rain. YO. So again – stay warm and bring rain gear.
DO NOT GET SCARED AWAY BY THE RAIN!
To the game. This is the biggest game at Kinnick Stadium since at least Penn State in 2021. You can argue it’s the biggest since Purdue in 2015, a win that propelled Iowa to 11-0 and wrapped up the old Big Ten West.
One problem – this Oregon team is just a tad better than 2015 Purdue. Or even 2021 Penn State. This is a team, though young, that’s full of dudes. Dudes all over the field.
Some of Oregon’s numbers this year are impressive – 483.9 yards of offense per game. 237 rushing yards per game. They have the best pass defense in the country, at just 124.6 yards allowed per game. They speared Rutgers, 56-10, and every podcast I listened to this week said don’t watch that game. If you do, you’ll immediately think Iowa has no shot.
But Iowa DOES have a shot here. Some of Oregon’s numbers have been inflated by playing some dreadful opponents. Oregon State. Oklahoma State. Rutgers isn’t a bad team but their defense is definitely bad. Against teams with good defenses – Wisconsin (welcome back head coach LUKE FICKELL!), Penn State, Indiana – their numbers drop off and there is a script to beat them laid out by the Hoosiers. Indiana held Oregon to 81 yards rushing and just 267 yards of total offense in Eugene. They had 6 sacks and were +1 in turnover margin. The game was only close score-wise due to a pick-6.
Iowa doesn’t have Indiana’s offense, but they have a defense equal to IU’s. Toss in a road game. Toss in a young team. Toss in a horrible forecast – around 5:00, right as we hit sunset, the weather looks to be a rain/snow mix and temps plunge into the 30s – and you have a ton of variables that even this out and could make this a rock fight game that tips Iowa’s direction.
Oregon is a 6.5-point favorite, which makes sense. Iowa’s offense, while so much better and able hammer teams on the ground themselves, still has issues in the pass game that won’t suddenly be solved because Iowa had a bye week. It’ll be awhile before that’s fixed. If Iowa falls behind, it’s an uphill climb. But if Iowa can hang in that opening sequence, they’ll have a good shot. I take Iowa and the points, and it’ll be a 24-20 win for someone. I hope it’s Iowa. My heart tells me Iowa. My head tells me Oregon just edges the Hawks. I want to listen to my heart. Do it, Hawks. This is your time. Grab this one and set up another huge game at USC next week.
Date: Saturday, November 8
Time: 2:40 pm CT
Matchup: Oregon Ducks (7-1, 4-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2, 4-1)
Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
TV: CBS
Updated Weather Forecast: Horrible. Temperatures in the low 40s to high 30s at kickoff, 99 percent chance of rain turning into a rain/snow mix by 5:00.
Updated FanDuel Line: Iowa +6.5, O/U 42.5
