Let’s start with the good news, because there is some.
Garrett Crochet threw a live BP this weekend and is traveling with the team to New York. Willson Contreras DHed in the finale after a hand injury that scared everyone—he’s healthy enough to swing a bat, even if nobody’s declaring him fully healthy yet. Ceddanne Rafaela was back in the lineup for the Cubs series. Tanner Houck made it back to the mound in Game 162. Those are real things.
Now the rest of it.
Mickey Gasper is dealing with a significant
biceps injury from Friday’s doubleheader and is almost certainly not going to be available for the Wild Card Series. Tyron Guerrero—one of the four bullpen locks Boston was counting on in October—is also banged up and may not pitch again until next year. Eli White’s foot injury is in fact season-ending, having had Lisfranc surgery last week. Justin Slaten is out. Masataka Yoshida is out (though we’ve known that). The enigma that is Curtis Mead is down in Fort Myers, and nobody seems to know what his actual status is.
That’s a utility man who provides quality at-bats against right-handed pitching, a back-end bullpen arm, a speedy outfielder, a late-inning reliever, a left-handed power bat, and a middle infielder—all gone or in serious doubt for a three-game series that starts Tuesday at 8.
Not to make excuses for this team. But damn. These guys are hurt.
The pitching is legit
Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez will start in some order. Chad Tracy says the current sequencing against Cleveland didn’t give anything away, and maybe that’s true. What matters is that all three are healthy and available, and that’s more than a lot of teams can say.
Brayan Bello and Jake Bennett give Boston a pair of genuine multi-inning options out of the bullpen. Bennett’s numbers against the Yankees this year—2-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 10 Ks—can’t be ignored even if he’ll be pitching out of the pen against them. Those two going two or three innings in the middle of a game gives the starters a real off-ramp. This is also where Garrett Crochet could end up—bulk innings behind your main starters to get to your true back bullpen weapons in Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman.
The back end hinges on Chapman. He last pitched on the 23rd—locking down three Ks and the save against the Guardians in a 1-0 win—but the question is whether a full week off means he comes back at his usual level. Nobody knows the answer until he’s on the mound.
Crochet and Houck: the upside bets
Houck back on the mound in Game 162 is the kind of moment you wanted to see. He wasn’t sharp, but he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since July 2025—some rust is expected. It’s not clear whether he’ll make the postseason roster, but four solid rehab outings and then a real appearance in a real game is enough in my book to use him some time in the next two days. He’s not at his best, but compared to other options like Jovani Moran or Alec Gamboa, a healthy Houck in a short series could be a legitimate weapon.
We haven’t seen Garrett Crochet pitch at all, but he’s determined to make an impact. He’s the most talented arm on the Red Sox and one of the best pitchers in the world. It would be foolish to count someone like him out.
The position player math
Contreras DHing in the finale is the good news we all needed. The hand is healthy enough to swing. Whether he can handle the rigors of a full Wild Card series is a different question, but he’s available.
Rafaela back in the outfield means Boston’s defense gets considerably better (sorry not sorry to Jahmai Jones and/or Nate Eaton). He changes that center field situation completely, and in a series at Yankee Stadium with Max Fried and Carlos Rodón likely on the hill, having an elite defender out there to cut down extra-base hits matters more than people will think.
The Gasper loss hurts the bench big time. Tracy loved having him available against tough righties. Hell, Tracy loved him more than Connor Wong, who really felt like he was on the outs with the way Evil Mickey was producing. With Gasper out, Jahmai Jones becomes even more important as a right-handed option to deploy against Fried or Rodón—and Boston will almost certainly see both of them. Not ideal, but Jones knows what his job is.
The bottom line
This roster is more battered than anyone would like going into a playoff series. The bullpen without a healthy Guerrero and with Chapman still proving he’s back to his expected level is thinner than the numbers suggested it would be a month ago. But Houck and Crochet could give the relief corps real upside if everything breaks right.
What wins this series isn’t going to be one player. It’s going to be Bello throwing three innings in the middle of a tight game, Bennett navigating a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup, Roman Anthony continuing to do what he’s done over the past 10 days (aka actually see the ball and put it in play), and Adley Rutschman being Adley Rutschman when it counts.
It’s going to be a total team effort or it’s not going to happen. That’s the honest take. No excuses, even with the sizable list of banged up players. The real season begins now.
