Last year, around the trade deadline, the Royals had a starting pitcher in his mid-30s on an expiring contract. Seth Lugo had a 3.03 ERA through his first 20 starts as the Royals approached the trade deadline under .500. Rather than trade him or extend him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the season, the Royals decided to sign him to a two-year, $46 million deal with a vesting option. Lugo had performance and injury issues after the signing, and has had mixed results this year. The extension looks
like an overpay or an outright mistake right now.
Keeping Michael Wacha rather than trading him would be like walking into the same trap for a second year in a row.
Lugo has not been terrible this year. However, for a deal that could pay him up to $63 million, Lugo needs to be better than the 4.36 ERA he has put up. Even worse, he is trending in the wrong direction – his ERA-by-month has been 2.63, 4.59, 6.00, and 4.94. His peripheral numbers do not improve the story – he has an xERA of 5.42 and xFIP of 4.46. His strikeout rate is down for the seventh year in a row, part of that was moving to the rotation from the bullpen. His velocity has also been dropping over time, which is what happens to aging veterans.
Lugo has a vesting option for the third year that will pay him $20 million in 2028 if (a) he throws 335 innings over 2026 and 2027; or (b) he throws 190 innings in 2027. If he fails to reach those marks, the Royals still have a $17 million club option for 2028 with a $3 million buyout. I think you have to go into next year hoping Lugo is good enough to be a fourth starter, but that he does not hit the innings necessary to trigger the vesting option for 2028.
Enter Michael Wacha, he is a 35-year-old starting pitcher, the same as Lugo last year. The Royals have Wacha under control through next season for $14 million plus some incentives and there is a club option for 2028 at $14 million as well with a $1 million buyout. Wacha is having a nice season, which makes him attractive as a trade target in a market with not a lot of quality starting pitching. His value will never be higher. His 3.60 ERA is outperforming all of his peripheral numbers. If you are looking to next season objectively, you would expect him to take a step back from his 2026 level just due to aging and the low strikeout rate. Holding onto a pitcher who is likely to start moving toward the back-end of the rotation, even if he is still worth it on the contract, when you could get real prospects back for him is malpractice. Let’s do a little thought experiment to illustrate.
What if the Royals had traded Seth or let him walk after 2025? Some would say, “look at all the injuries this year and how much they have needed his innings,” but that is the wrong way to think about it. There were a lot of available free agents that would have been comparable to Lugo, including Dustin May, Erick Fedde, Tyler Mahle, Adrian Houser, Zach Littell, and Chris Bassitt. None of these are great options. But they are cheaper than Seth Lugo and capable of producing at last 80 percent of what Lugo has given them. And if you wanted to be more aggressive than that, you could sign a free agent like Michael King, a younger and better pitcher for not much more money per year with one additional guaranteed year. Any assertion that there will not be enough starters if Wacha is not on this team next year is just not true. And that is not even considering options on the trade market. How do you think the Royals ended up with Wacha and Lugo in the first place?
Michael Wacha is a fine pitcher. He is not irreplaceable.
Look at what pitching is available on the free agent market. Tarik Skubal may not be traded as Detroit has climbed back into the AL Central hunt. The Twins say they won’t trade Joe Ryan. The best long-term pitchers on the trade market may be Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano on the Angels, or short-term rentals like Kevin Gausman, not a guy you want starting in a playoff game.
It is conceivable that Wacha is the best starters available going into this final week before the deadline. Cash that chip in and I think someone like the Cubs might give you a Kevin Alcantara plus something or maybe even Jaxon Wiggins or Pedro Ramirez. I am not going to go team by team who might be interested and what they have, that is not the point of this article. There just seems like a lot of value to be gleaned in a trade for a pitcher who is realistically a third or fourth starter at best going forward. The Royals need to stop getting precious about having guys under team control and start flipping them when the value is there.
