I’ve watched hours of South Florida men’s basketball over the last two nights so that you don’t have to.
Here’s what I’ve learned.
STARTERS
#35 Izaiah Nelson — F, Sr., 6-10, 218 lbs.
15.7 PPG/9.6 RPG/1.4 BPG/1.6 SPG
Let’s start with the accolades, I guess.
Nelson, who followed Hodgson to Tampa after spending the first three seasons of his college career at Arkansas State, is the American Conference Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year. He didn’t leave much for anybody else
in the league.
When people talk about South Florida being “more physical and athletic” than Louisville, this is who they’re thinking about.
Nelson is a superb athlete, he’s got a strong frame, he has tremendous defensive instincts, and he plays with relentless energy. He’s the only forward and the only player over 6’5 in South Florida’s starting lineup, and if he weren’t as special as he is, this whole system wouldn’t come close to working as well as it does.
Seeming to be all over the floor at all moments of the game, Nelson leads the nation in double-doubles with 18. He’s also recorded eight steals over USF’s last three games, and had a 7-steal game against Wichita State earlier this season.
Offensively, Nelson mostly wants to live at the rim. He feasts on put-backs, screen and rolls, rim runs and easy buckets set up by his teammates. He’s shooting 73.3 percent at the rim in halfcourt situations, and is one of the best dunkers in the sport.
If Louisville does not defend him as a roller in high pick-and-roll situations better than they’ve defended that situation at times this year, he’s gonna finish this game with four or five dunks.
Observe:
What Nelson isn’t is much of a shooter. He’ll take one or two threes a game because most teams largely ignore him when he’s on the perimeter. I assume Louisville will do the same. Any shot that Nelson takes outside of the paint is a win.
Defensively, Nelson is a stocks (steals + blocks) machine. His combination of size, athleticism, seemingly endless motor and terrific instincts has him averaging 2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. He can guard three positions in one-on-one situations and is a consistent weak side shot blocking presence. Despite a relative lack of height, USF still ranks 25th in the nation in 2-point percentage defense, and Nelson is the primary reason why.
Defensive rebounding is an issue for USF (more on that in a bit), but Nelson averages 6.3 of those by himself. He’s the one guy Louisville needs to beat in order to create second chance opportunities for itself.
Nelson can put up huge numbers in this game if U of L lets him, but I think there’s something of a followable gameplan for limiting his impact … at least to the point where he isn’t finishing this game with 28 and 16 or something outrageous. Louisville has to be physical with him. There’s simply no other option. If the Cards continue to over-hedge on high ball screens, he’ll get 8-10 easy points at the basket on rolls. Don’t do that. If you can keep his number of offensive rebounds to under four, that’s a huge win as well. A lot of his fastbreak opportunities come off of blocked shots he makes or turnovers he creates. Try to not let those opportunities happen by valuing the possession when you have the ball.
I’m not sure Nelson has the handles or the outside shot to be a four in the new era of the NBA, and he doesn’t quite have the size to play the traditional big role at the next level either. At the college level, though, this dude is a problem. You’ve got to keep him away from the rim as much as possible or he’s capable of putting up some gaudy numbers.
#2 Wes Enis — G, Jr., 6-2, 200 lbs.
16.8 PPG/3.5 Made Threes Per Game/36.5% 3PT
As good as Nelson is, this is actually the guy I’m more focused on heading into Thursday afternoon.
Enis is the son of former NFL running back and Penn State All-American Curtis Enis, and he has an interesting background beyond that.
A self-described “zero-star prospect” coming out of high school in Ohio, Enis took college-credit courses and graduated early from Miami East High School, sacrificing the chance to play his senior season of high school ball. Instead, he enrolled early at Division-II Lincoln Memorial in December of 2023. His intention all along was to prove himself and earn a shot at the D-I level.
Enis scored 1,002 points in just two seasons at Lincoln Memorial, averaging over 20 points per game in his sophomore season. That same year he earned conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year honors, while also drawing interest from a litany of respected D-I programs. He chose USF, and has emerged as the Bulls’ leading scorer and emotional leader in his first D-I season.
Enis is ambidextrous, and says everything about his game changed in the 8th grade when his dad suggested he try shooting with his left hand. Learning how to shoot with a different hand that late in life was a tall task, but Enis’ tireless work ethic made it happen. It’s the same work ethic he’s brought to the South Florida program.
“In my relatively short 18 years in the business, Wes Enis is absolutely one of the top-five hardest workers I’ve been around,” Bulls assistant coach Jamie Quarles said earlier last konth. “He didn’t shoot it great early in the year. But watching the way he works, you knew that it would eventually translate into him having a really, really good season.
“In our first conversations with Wes, when we got off a Zoom conversation with him, I remember our coaching staff being around a conference table and everybody saying, ‘Whoa! This dude here is a worker. We need to do whatever we can to get this dude in our program.’ I mean, there were telltale signs.”
Enis shot a disappointing 30% from three-point range in November and 33% in December. He shot 41.7% in January, twice setting a school record with 10 threes in a game, and 35.5 in February. He’s hit 18 triples over just five games so far in March.
When he’s on, Enis is just about as dangerous an outside shooter as there is in the country. He isn’t exceptionally quick with the ball in his hands, but he’s quick enough. His handles and his effective twitchiness allowed him to get to the rim consistently against most American Conference defenders, and he’s a crafty finisher once he get there. Enis is also the best mid-range player on the team, and he’s really good at doing that slight arm extension thing (read: uncalled offensive foul) to create space before taking a 10-15 footer.
Defensively, Enis is solid. He’s very active (just like pretty much every Bull) and is big on applying ball pressure virtually every second the opponent is in a halfcourt situation. He had five steals in two conference tournament games, but isn’t quite the steal threat as a couple of other guys on the team are. He’s a gambler, and that can be used against him.
Here’s the other thing about Enis: I know Louisville fans likely heard the quote he made earlier this week, but I still don’t think Card Nation is prepared for just how much they’re going to hate this guy Thursday afternoon.
Enis is the consummate “love that guy when he’s on my team, hate him if he’s on the other squad” player. He is as animated on the court as any player we’ve faced this season. Every successful thing he does comes with a celebration. Every unsuccessful thing he does is met with a complaint. He is constantly talking shit. Toss in the fact that he’s also really good, and all the elements are in place for Enis to be remembered as an all-time March villain, regardless of if Louisville wins or loses this game.
Louisville actually did a really good job last week in Charlotte of limiting star guards Boopie Miller and Tre Donaldson (at least in the second half). They need to dedicate a similar level of attention to Enis. Running him off the line is imperative. Force him to make plays inside the arc. Do not help off him, do not get caught ball watching when you’re guarding him. If he sees a couple of deep shots go in early, he could absolutely have a Darnell Archey-esque afternoon against us. No one wants that.
#5 Joseph Pinion — G, Sr., 6-5, 200 lbs.
14.2 PPG/3.2 Made Threes Per Game/37.9% 3PT
Pinion is the final member of South Florida’s “big three,” if you will.
Pinion started his career at Arkansas before playing two seasons at Arkansas State with head coach Bryan Hodgson. Like Nelson, Pinion opted to make the move to Tampa when Hodgson got the job at USF.
It’s impossible to watch South Florida and not think “man, this guy would be great in our system” about multiple players. Pinion might fit that description the best.
When he gets it going, few players in college basketball can burn it from the outside like Pinion. He has a lightning quick release and makes some of the wildest off-balance threes you’re ever going to see. He’s made 106 three-pointers this season and is shooting a team-best (out of guys with the requisite number of attempts) 37.9 percent from three.
Pinion is a solid athlete who can get up and yam when he gets opportunities on the break or gets a step on a guy in the halfcourt. His decision making inside the arc, however, is suspect. He reminds me of Isaac McKneely in that way. He does everything right to gain a huge advantage, and then all too often either throws the ball to the other team or makes an ill-advised run right into a rim protector. Obviously, Louisville has to try and run him off the three-point line and force him into these situations as often as possible.
I think the inclination will be to put McKneely on him, but I’m really hoping the staff opts to give J’Vonne Hadley this assignment. Yes, it takes J’Vonne away from the basket and slightly limits his ability to help keep South Florida from killing U of L on the offensive glass, but I think making sure this guy doesn’t hit seven threes and completely flip the game on its head is the more important task here.
Defensively, Pinion’s another gambler and disruptor. He’s had at least one steal in seven consecutive games, and four steals in two separate games over that span. He gambles in large part because he’s not great at keeping capable drivers in front of him. He’s certainly a player who can be targeted by Louisville in halfcourt sets.
Pinion’s gambling also leads to him being in foul trouble fairly often. In the American Conference title game, Wichita State got Pinion into foul trouble early, and the result was him playing just 22 minutes, going 2-of-9 from the field and scoring just five points. Going right at him early in the game seems like a wise move.
Last thing on Pinion: He is huge on the kicking the legs way out while taking a three thing. Cardinal defenders have to be aware of that (particularly fouling on a three king Adrian Wooley), but not to the point where it limits their ability to adequately contest Pinion’s outside shots.
Do not let this dude go nuts from the outside. If he hurts you in other ways, tip your cap.
#11 CJ Brown — G, So., 6-2, 175 lbs.
11.1 PPG/4.8 APG
Brown runs the point for the Bulls, and pound-for-pound, I’m not sure he isn’t the best athlete on the team.
Brown is the lone returning starter from last year’s USF team, and he consistently showcases why Bryan Hodgson was cool with keeping him around. He isn’t a pure scorer himself, but he knows when and where to get the ball to Enis and Pinnion on the perimeter, and when to set up Nelson for an easy bucket inside. Outside of setting up his teammates, Brown’s main M.O. is to get downhill and draw fouls, which he is very good at. Louisville has to dare him to be a shooter (24.3% from three) and make sure not to simply bump or grab him if he gets a step on his defender.
Defensively is where Brown is at his best. For my money, he’s the best on-ball defender out of the Bulls’ guards, despite being the smallest starter. He knows where he’s supposed to be at all times, and is the centering piece for his teammates when things get a little too chaotic.
#8 Josh Omojafo — G, Sr., 6-5, 200 lbs.
11.5 PPG/5.3 RPG
Omajafo (pronounced “Oh-muh-jah-foe”) transferred to USF after helping lead Robert Morris to the NCAA Tournament last season. He doesn’t play the same role, but he’s sort of this team’s J’Vonne Hadley in that he does everything well but maybe nothing exceptionally.
He’s a 6’5 guard, but in a four guard lineup, he’s the one who’s asked to play most like a forward. He’s the team’s second-leading rebounder and almost always draws the defensive assignment of a player he’s giving up a couple of inches to.
Offensively, Omojafo is a lot like Brown in that his main goal is to get downhill and not take outside shots. He’ll take two or three triples a game if he’s open, but he shoots the three at just a 30.6 percent clip. He’s a good passer, a good athlete, and while he’s the least dynamic of the five starters, he does the best job of both taking care of the ball and getting to the free-throw line. Louisville has to force him to be a scorer, and not a free-throw merchant.
Omojafo has a good frame and plays a super physical style, but this is still probably a situation where U of L will look to isolate J’Vonne Hadley on the block when he’s being guarded by Omojafo. If Hadley can take advantage of the inch or two height advantage he has, it may force USF to change the way it’s defending someone else.
KEY RESERVES
For as fast as they play, South Florida does not currently have the level of depth you might expect. The Bulls got just 21 total bench points in their two American Conference Tournament wins, and played just three bench players in their championship game victory over Wichita State. When they’re not dealing with foul trouble, this is the way they want to play.
Here are the non-starters you need to know.
#3 Isaiah Jones — F, Sr., 6-7, 229 lbs.
4.5 PPG/1.2 SPG/15.5 MPG
A fifth year senior with previous stints at Detroit-Mercy and Oakland, Jones isn’t overly skilled, but he’s a terrific defensive player and it’s clear that Hodgson trusts him. Most of his recent offense has come from beyond the arc, where he shoots 32.5 percent. Don’t be fooled by his low season scoring average, he’s hit double figures in three of USF’s last six games.
Hodgson typically rolls with Jones when the team needs a defensive lift or when he feels like his team is giving up too much size-wise. He’s a good shot blocker and a big-time opportunist when it comes to creating steals. He has 11 steals over USF’s last five games. Expect Jones to play 20+ minutes Thursday afternoon.
#6 Daimion Collins — F, Sr., 6-9, 200 lbs.
4.2 PPG/3.2 RPG/14.4 MPG
The former Kentucky Wildcat is another fifth-year guy with size off the bench. He struggled to live up to his pre-college expectations at both UK and LSU, but has found a nice niche on a good team in his final season of college ball. Collins doesn’t play as much as Jones, but he’s an active defender, rebounder and scorer around the rim during the 8-12 minutes he’s on the court. He’ll take the occasional three, but he really shouldn’t.
#9 Gavin Hightower — G, Fr., 6-1, 165 lbs.
3.8 PPG/1.7 APG/9.6 MPG
Hightower has emerged as Hodgson’s primary backup point guard in recent weeks. He’s a pass first point guard who is small and lightning quick. He hardly ever shoots from the outside, doing most of his scoring damage on floaters and midrange pull ups. Hightower is yet another player with terrific athleticism. He helps out with rebounding more than you’d think, and is a pistol in fastbreak situations.
#21 Adriel Nyorha — G, Fr., 6-5, 175 lbs.
3.7 PPG/2.0 APG/10.9 MPG
Nyorha has seen his playing time dwindle as Hightower has stepped into a larger role. He played just two minutes in the AAC semifinal win over Charlotte and didn’t see the floor at all in the title game. If he plays at all on Thursday, it’s likely due to foul trouble or things going especially poorly on the court. His main objective when he’s out there seems to be to take care of the ball and not take any unnecessary risks.
OFFENSIVE STYLE
It’s impossible to watch South Florida play and not see the remarkable similarities between their style and Louisville’s style. There’s a reason.
Pat Kelsey and Nate Oats’ styles are virtually identical, and USF head coach Bryan Hodgson was an assistant under Oats at both Buffalo and Alabama before leaving to succeed former U of L assistant Mike Balado as the head coach at Arkansas State.
South Florida actually plays at an even faster pace than Louisville … and virtually everyone else in college basketball. Whether it’s off a made shot, a missed short or a turnover, the moment one of their players gets the ball in their hands, they’re gone. USF plays at the third-fastest pace of any team in the tournament (only Alabama and Georgia are faster) and their 87.7 ppg scoring average is the seventh-highest in the field of 68.
Like U of L, USF wants to let it fly early and often from the outside. They don’t shoot quite as many threes as the Cardinals do, simply because they don’t shoot it as well (33.1% — 64th out of 68 teams in the tournament). The biggest difference from a three-point perspective between Louisville and South Florida is that while the Cardinals have four or five guys with the potential to light it up from deep, the Bulls only have two real volume shooters. Thankfully for them, their two of the best volume shooters in the country.
Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion are two of 23 players in Division-I who have made 100 or more three-pointers this season. The Bulls are just the 12th team in the history of college basketball to field a team with two players that have made 100 triples in a single season.
Outside of the three-point shooting Enis and Pinnion, there are two offensive areas where USF has been killing teams all season.
The first is getting downhill and drawing fouls. The Bulls are 41st in Division-I in free-throw rate, and they shoot it a solid 74.3% collective average from the stripe. Defending without fouling has been an issue at times for Louisville this season, but not as much recently. That trend needs to continue on Thursday afternoon.
The final area feels like it might be the most important. South Florida 38.2 percent of its missed shots, the seventh-best offensive rebound rate out of 365 Division-I teams. They average 17.8 second chance points per game. That’s the most of any team in the country.
If you’re a Louisville fan, you’d love to think those numbers are the product of playing in the American Conference than anything else, and that a team like the Cardinals would be able to keep the Bulls off the offensive glass better than a team like East Carolina. But USF had a ton of success on the offensive glass even against the teams on the very tough non-conference schedule they faced back in November and December.
If you let this team hit or exceed its season average in second chance, you’re probably going to lose this game.
DEFENSIVE STYLE
South Florida’s season-long defensive numbers aren’t terrific, but they’re very strong if you look at just the last six or seven weeks.
While some of that may be due to conference play, there is a noticeable difference in energy level when you watch this team’s games from Nov/Dec compared to their games from the last few weeks.
The best way to describe South Florida’s current defense is by saying that Hodgson appears to have adopted Rick Pitino’s “they can’t call them all” philosophy. The Bulls get called for a ton of fouls.
That 19.7 number represents probably half of the fouls they actually commit. Go watch any condensed game video from the last month or so and I think you’ll see the same thing. They absolutely foul the shit out of everyone constantly and just dare the officials to blow the whistle.
Let me straightforward: This is not a criticism. I think we as Louisville fans know better than just about anyone that employing this philosophy can be one of the smartest things a coach can do.
The question for USF will be whether or not they can adjust if they get a different type of whistle in the NCAA Tournament. We’ve seen this a lot with Big Ten teams over the years where the stripes from your league that know you and your coaches and your style might let you get away with a number of things during league play that the refs who call your games in the tournament will not. I think a tight whistle would benefit Louisville in this one, especially considering U of L’s superior depth and how the Cards have shot free-throws for the bulk of this season.
Like Louisville, the Bulls play almost entirely man-to-man defense, but have thrown out a couple of different looks at rare times over the season. They’ll also throw out a little full-court pressure, but typically that’s just to try and force their opponents to use some of the shot clock and not to try and force turnovers. Maybe that will change now that they know Mikel Brown is out.
The Bulls force turnovers on 18.9% of their defensive possessions, which is very high. They put constant pressure on the ball, they reach for steals all the time (27th in the country in steal percentage), and they try and jump passing lanes. In addition to this leading to an abnormally high number of fouls committed, their overextension and over-aggression also leaves them susceptible to backcuts and leaving good shooters open on the perimeter.
Turnovers ultimately doomed Louisville in their tournament loss to Miami. It goes without saying that they have to do a much better job of taking care of the ball against a team that lives and dies defensively with trying to capitalize on the other team’s mistakes.
Nelson is a highly capable rim protector, as are the two forwards they bring off the bench. Because of this, opponents are shooting just 46.7 percent (25th-best inD1) from inside the arc against the Bulls. Outside the arc, teams are having a lot more success. USF’s three-point defense of 33.9% is just 188th-best in Division-I.
One thing that jumped out after watching multiple games is how often South Florida gives up easy buckets off of baseline out-of-bounds plays. This is an area where Pat Kelsey and Mike Cassity can hopefully get in their play design bag and “steal” 4-6 points.
Last thing: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team with a bigger discrepancy between how well they rebound offensively and how poorly they rebound defensively.
On offense, USF has four or sometimes all five guys sprinting to the glass to create the second chance opportunities that they’ve killed opponents with all season long. Defensively, it’s Nelson and then four dudes just kind of standing around. There is a huge opportunity here for Louisville — a good offensive rebounding team in its own right — to create a number of second and third chances on offense.
5 BIGGEST STRENGTHS
1. Offensive Rebounding
Shooting the fifth-worst three-point percentage of any team in the tournament almost doesn’t matter when you’re getting at least two chances to score on almost half your offensive possessions.
Again, South Florida’s 17.8 second chance points per game isn’t just the best average of any team in the tournament, it’s the best average of any team in the country. If Louisville doesn’t sell out to compete on the defensive glass, they’re likely going to put themselves in a position where they have to score 90+ points to win.
2. Enis and Pinnion from the outside
South Florida is just the 12th Division 1 team ever to have two players make 100 three-pointers in a season. These guys are lethal when they’re left open, and they’re capable (especially Pinnion) even when they’re pretty well defended.
Facing a team with two dudes who both have the ability to go off for 7-12 threes on any given afternoon is terrifying. Louisville simply cannot afford to let either guy get into an early rhythm. Attacking them (especially Pinnion) on the other end to try and get them in foul trouble would be an enormous win.
3. Forcing turnovers
Pretty much all of Louisville’s losses in the second half of the season can be traced back to two things: Poor outside shooting and too many turnovers.
South Florida creates turnovers on 15.2 percent of its defensive possessions and steals on 8.7 percent. Those are huge numbers for any team, but especially for one that wants to turn every game into a track meet because they thrive in transition (7th best fast break scoring team in the tournament).
If there isn’t a tight whistle in this one, Louisville still has to keep its head when faced with USF’s constant pressure. The Cards can’t afford to get into a situation where they’re worried about what the officials aren’t calling.
No lazy passes, no lazy dribbles, no dribbling straight into three defenders when there are open teammates all around you. Every possession has to be valued.
4. Energy and confidence
These guys feed off of Hodgson, who is a remarkably confident and tough dude.
The Bulls are relentless in both their effort and their shit-talking.
If Louisville doesn’t match USF’s energy and its physicality and its toughness, well, they won’t deserve to play into the weekend.
5. The storylines
Ok, this isn’t a “real” strength, but it feels real to me.
South Florida checks every box when it comes to having the feel-good storylines that every double-digit seed that pulls an early Thursday upset seems to have.
For starters, this is a program that had a ton of momentum before head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim tragically and suddenly passed away at the age of 43 just weeks before the start of the 2024-25 season. Hodgson has repeatedly given Abdur-Rahim credit for laying the foundation that he inherited, and for Bulls fans, winning a game in the tournament for the first time since 2012 (and just the third time ever) would feel like the perfect closure to Abdur-Rahim’s story.
Secondly, Hodgson is from the Buffalo area and repeatedly called this a “home game” when the draw was revealed. The story that has already been widely reported and will continue to be on Thursday is that Hodgson’s father deals with dementia and has never been able to see his son serve as a head coach. That’s going to change on Thursday.
Incredibly cool storyline for the rest of the country to latch onto … not so much for us.
5 WEAKNESSES
1. Fouling
It won’t matter if they don’t get called, but South Florida fouls more than any team in this tournament. If Louisville’s having yet another “uncharacteristically poor” outside shooting game, they have to make a concerted effort to drive the ball and get to the free-throw line. Honestly, they need to be doing that even if they’re having a solid outside shooting game.
2. Reckless drives to the rim
When you play at one of the fastest paces in the country, there’s likely to be at least a little bit of carelessness involved. South Florida is no different.
While they have big-time athletes and capable drivers, they also sometimes have guys who will just put their heads down and head to the basket with seemingly zero plan. USF is getting its shot blocked on 13.1 percent of its offensive possessions, that’s 357th out of 365 D-I teams.
Run Enis and Pinnion off the three-point line, defend their drivers without fouling, don’t leave Nelson for easy dish and dunks, and make their other guys score in traffic.
3. Defensive rebounding
An area where Louisville simply HAS to take advantage. These guys do not attack the defensive glass with anywhere near the same vigor they do on the other end. If you don’t make them pay for that, you’re leaving a ton of much-needed points out there.
4. Being tall
Just one starter over 6’5. Their athleticism helps make up for that, but the hope has to be that Louisville can minimize the advantage in some of the areas where USF has been so strong simply by being bigger, more athletic and more talented than every team they’ve faced over the last two and-a-half months.
5. Handling crunch time
The Bulls have not been great in winning time this season. Most of their 17 conference victories came by wide margins. When they’ve been forced to make big plays in crunch time, more often than not they’ve folded.
USF has played four overtime games this season, and they’ve gone 2-2 in those games. Their most recent defeat was a 1-point loss at 15-15 Temple where the teams went back-and-forth in the final minute before the Owls got the game’s final score and stop. Overall, in games decided by 5 points or fewer this season, the Bulls are just 2-4.
