For all Caleb Williams’ brilliance in his third season with the Chicago Bears, the burgeoning star quarterback can still get that much better as a passer—a frightening prospect for the NFL, if you ask me.
In particular, Williams’ 58.1% completion percentage, a year after completing just 62.5% of his passes as a rookie, is due for an improvement in Year 3, which will mark his second under Ben Johnson.
But for those worried about whether Williams can make meaningful strides in that area, Hall-of-Fame
quarterback Drew Brees had some advice for Williams that might put things in perspective.
Brees, who is now working as a color analyst for FOX Sports alongside Adam Amin, recently spoke with Williams as part of their preparations for the Bears’ season-opening contest against the Carolina Panthers. Amin shared an especially interesting piece of that conversation on 104.3 The Score yesterday. (Also, don’t forget to check out Adam’s chat with our own Bill Zimmerman when you’re done reading this.)
“Drew’s line at the end of our conversation with Caleb—he said, ‘You know what the difference is between a 60% passer and a 70% passer?’ Caleb’s answer was—he was hesitant, but he goes, ‘Is it checkdowns?’
“Drew’s answer was ‘Three completions.’” You get three more completions per game when you’re probably going to throw the ball 30 times per game.”
First of all, Williams getting to speak with one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever do it—a man who completed almost 68% of his career pass attempts—is absolutely invaluable.
Secondly, what a way to put the task at hand in plain but attainable terms.
When you take away the league-leading 40 throwaways Williams made last year—another underrated sign of his growth—you could generally point to two or three passes a game where the ball simply got away from the young quarterback, who had the third-highest “bad-throw” percentage among all quarterbacks according to Pro Football Reference. (Plus, let’s not forget he also suffered from the fourth-highest drop rate from his pass catchers at 5.5%. He also had 18 balls batted at the line of scrimmage, second-most in the NFL.)
The good news, Amin said, is that these improvements are a matter of smaller adjustments and fundamental tweaks than wholesale overhauls.
“A few adjustments here and there are all it’s going to take to get small plays that lead to extended drives that lead to four extra points instead of having to settle for a field goal. These are the little things that build up and compound over time, and that’s a good entry point to be in Year 2 in an offense,” the broadcaster said.
A little bit of positive regression in each of these stats, and it wouldn’t be hard to see Williams’ completion rate jump into the mid-60s, even as he continues to big-game hunt and generate explosive plays.
And if he goes even higher than that?
We might be talking about an MVP-caliber player sooner rather than later.
And all it might take, at least to start with, is three more completions a game. Imagine that.
