Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Garry will collide this weekend (Sat., Nov. 22, 2025) inside Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar for UFC Qatar.
Just six months ago, Muhammad was still undisputed champion of the world, having captured the crown in the best performance of his career against longtime rival Leon Edwards. Fast-forward to today, and “The Bully” is now exceptionally far down the ladder, the cost of a bloody loss to Jack Della Maddalena and the subsequent domination of “JDM” by Islam Makhachev. There’s no clear path back to gold for the former champion, but getting back into the win column would be a start.
As for Garry, the lanky Irish talent has convinced more than a few doubters of his talent lately. His wins over Carlos Prates and Michael Page are aging beautifully, and even his competitive loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov proved him to be an elite contender. Still just 28 years old, “The Future” has really arrived at the top of the Welterweight pile.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Muhammad vs. Garry Betting Odds
- Belal Muhammad victory: +210
- Belal Muhammad via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Belal Muhammad via submission: TBD
- Belal Muhammad via decision: TBD
- Ian Garry victory: -280
- Ian Garry via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Ian Garry via submission: TBD
- Ian Garry via decision: TBD
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Muhammad Wins
Muhammad is a very smart and tactical fighter with the kind of rounded skills necessary to adjust his game plan for individual opponents. He’s a strong wrestler offensively and defensively, but his background is actually in boxing, and he has a sneaky lead leg kick to boot.
In this match, closing the distance is the obvious challenge. Garry will have a significant edge in height and reach, and he actually uses those gifts well thanks to his footwork and counter punching. This stylistic challenge demands Muhammad enter full “Bully” mode: relentless pressure, combinations, and takedowns are his keys to success.
Muhammad cannot wait too long to wrestle here. Even if his first couple shots are stuffed, establishing the takedown threat right away will be very helpful. Muhammad cannot compete with Garry’s range, but he can dull his senses by constantly working up and down the body with level change feints, real takedown attempts, body punches, and strikes over the top.
Since the dawn of MMA, faking a level change, ripping an overhand, then actually shooting for a double leg has been a winning tactic. Garry is a slick out-fighter, but Muhammad can still find the mark if he pushes hard and mixes his offense.
How Garry Wins
Garry is one of the division’s best strikers and a great tactician in his own right. Generally, he strands opponents at long range and picks them apart, but he’s also proven that his underrated wrestling and grappling are an effective path to victory.
Garry’s footwork will be put to the test here. Twice now, he’s effectively neutralized dangerous strikers in Geoff Neal and Prates by avoiding prolonged pocket exchanges, picking at them with kicks and short counters. He’ll be looking to do the same against Muhammad, but the former champion has a significant wrestling threat to worry about as well.
Avoiding the fence will be really important, as Muhammad has a fast shot and connects his hands quickly. Otherwise, it feels vital that Garry still gets his kicks off. Muhammad is a switch-stance fighter, so Garry should be attacking the available targets whenever possible. If “The Bully” is southpaw, Garry should blast power kicks upstairs and into the midsection like he just did to Prates. Whenever Muhammad is orthodox, Garry should be trying to off-balance him with calf kicks then stick him with straight shots as he recovers.
All the while, Garry can be looking to line up front kicks and intercepting knees on his pressing foe. If Garry’s kicks are flowing despite the takedown threat, he should be able to control exchanges and outland his opponent.
Muhammad vs. Garry Prediction
This has all the makings of a competitive and technical battle. Both men have rounded skill sets and typically adapt well, so we could see some very interesting mid-fight adjustments from these cerebral fighters. Despite that flexibility, however, it still feels like the overall matchup is one of wrestler vs. striker, as I’m expecting the takedown to really decide the outcome. Garry is too sharp and long on the feet to fall victim to “Canelo Hands,” while Muhammad is too strong for Garry if he’s actually finishing takedowns and establishing control.
Ultimately, I trust in the takedown defense of Garry to mostly keep this upright. I think he’ll force Muhammad to walk through a lot of fire, and while Muhammad is tough enough to endure those shots, it will slow him down and lead to more strikes landing like in the Della Maddalena loss.
