After dispatching Penn without too much consternation or a FranCon 6 level blow up, Illinois moves on to face VCU in the second round. Just like the last time Illinois was a 3-seed two years ago, they get the Atlantic 10 Conference Champion after they upset a 6-seed, in this case the hapless, Caleb Wilson-less Tar Heels choking the game away. VCU is not the same as that Duquesne team two years ago. This is a top 50 team in the country, with talented players with experience playing for and against
power conference opponents. They are balanced offensively and defensively, with the 47th ranked offensive efficiency and 61st ranked defensive efficiency, per Torvik. Let’s take a quick look at who the Rams are, how they play, and what the Illini need to do to win.
Players to Know
Terrence Hill, 6-foot-3 sophomore guard
Hill is the reason that VCU is in the second round, with a nuclear 34 points on 7-10 from three.
Hill is a very balanced guard. He is VCU’s leading scorer at 14.4 points per game, but VCU actually brings him in off the bench. He is not lightning quick or super strong, but he knows how to use his speed when he has a speed advantage, and how to use his strength when he has a strength advantage. He is crafty around the rim, shooting a clean 62% from two-point range. Against North Carolina, he did a lot of his damage with North Carolina losing him in transition or a missed rotation for open threes, or him taking advantage of switches with North Carolina’s power forwards. He is a good player, but I don’t think we should go overboard here. This is not Nick Boyd or Labaron Philon. I hope Kylan wants the challenge as he did with TJ Powers, with minimal switching and drop coverage. Kylan being physical and denying off the ball is something North Carolina failed to do the entire game. He is very good from the midrange, so the drop defender cannot fall too far into the paint waiting for Boswell to get over the top.
Lazar Djokovic, 6-foot-10 junior forward
Hill is getting all the headlines, but for my money Djokovic is the Rams best player and only NBA prospect. VCU uses him similarly to how Illinois uses Mirkovic; they will use him as a screener on a pick and pop, then if he doesn’t shoot it, he will attack the close out as a secondary ball handler. The key is to contest but stay down, he shoots the three at a decent 35.6% clip but only shoot 1.8 per game, he would much rather get downhill where he has the athleticism to put players on a poster.
Where he really hurts teams is getting the other teams bigs in foul trouble, he is a master foul baiter, averaging five made free throws per game. He is not a great rebounder for his size though, so it will be important to put pressure on him on the defensive glass. While he is the biggest player on the court for VCU at all times, I expect Illinois to cross match him with our more mobile power forwards, with Mirkovic and Humrichous getting the assignment, and the Ivisii guarding Michael Belle and Barry Evans, who are less aggressive offensively.
Nyk Lewis, 6-foot-1 freshman guard
Lewis was the #53 recruit in the 2025 class, which schools like VCU are able to win more frequently with the promise of instant playing time rather than sitting behind big time senior transfers at a high major. Lewis is a very quick downhill attacker who can also shoot from well beyond the arc, 36.8% from three on 3.8 attempts a game. His lack of size has led to him struggling to score at the rim though, just 44.7% on two-point attempts. I would assume Kylan guards him to start the game until Hill comes in, and then they try to get him off the three-point line into those inefficient runners and floaters by using Stojakovic’s length when he comes in.
Jadrian Tracey, 6-foot-5 senior forward
The Illinois staff and some of the players will be familiar with Tracey, as he was an Oregon Duck last year. He is a strong guard and defender who is VCU’s most efficient volume sniper, shooting 37.7% from three on 4.8 attempts per game. Jake Davis and Keaton Wagler will get the assignment most often and will need to be wary of overhelping.
How They Play
Offense
Their offense has a lot of similarities to the five-out sets the Illini run. The main difference is they are a bit more egalitarian in sharing the playmaking duties than Illinois, who usually start actions with Keaton Wagler. It is a lot of motion up top into a ball screen, usually with Djokovic setting the screen and mixing it up between popping and rolling. Everyone on the court at all times is at least a modest threat to shoot and can straight line drive a bad close out. They are patient until they get a good look from three, shooting 36.9% on the season, the 30th best percentage in the country. Led by Djokovic, they also do a lot of their damage at the charity stripe, averaging 25.1 free throw attempts a game, 20th in the country. That is a battle of strengths to watch, as Illinois commits the second fewest fouls in the country, at least when they are not playing Wisconsin.
Defense
When college basketball fans think of VCU, they think of Shaka Smart’s full court havoc defense that made even the most experienced of point guards pee down their legs on the road to a Final Four run. While they maintained a turnover focused style for a while after Smart left for Texas, Phil Martelli Jr. has the Rams playing a more conservative style than they are known for. They tend not to extend their defense full court and are only forcing turnovers on 14.8% of defensive plays, middle of the pack at 149th in the country. However, of the turnovers they force, an unusually high 62% are live ball steals, which lead to transition baskets so avoiding those run outs will be important. Since they have many similar sized players on the roster, they tend to switch a lot of screens 1-4 and have Djokovic hard hedge when he is put in ball screens. In the post, they wait until the offensive player puts the ball on the ground before bringing a hard double from the nearest perimeter defender.
How Illinois Can Win
Offense
Play Inside Out
With the Rams switching a lot, look for opportunities to get Mirkovic or Tomislav in the post against a smaller defender. This does not necessarily mean we need to or will shoot less threes. VCU will come with the double, which will open up opportunities to move the ball against a rotated defense and get good looks from three. Those looks from three tend to be better than the ones the Illini get without an inside touch first. When we set ball screens, mix up pops with short rolls when they are trapping Wagler. The way Tomislav is shooting it right now, I’d much rather him assess the defense from the free throw line than shoot a three. When Mirkovic and Zvonomir are in the game together, the short roll for Mirkovic will open up backside lob opportunities for Big Z on the rotation.
Same Intensity on the Offensive Glass
Illinois will have a size advantage at every position on the floor. Illinois grabbed over 50% of their offensive rebounds against Penn. If they can get 40% against VCU, the Rams will have little chance of keeping up with Illinois.
Defense
Do Not Overswitch
Kylan Boswell completely took TJ Powers out of the game yesterday. He said he was taking out his frustration from the Wisconsin game. He needs to have that same attitude on Terrence Hill against VCU. When he makes it his personal mission that there will be no switching and he is shutting down a player, Illinois’ defense is at its best. When VCU does guard-guard screens the other defender should show to slow and get back to their man. When the four or the five sets the screen, a shallow drop coverage that can challenge the midrange and get back to the shooter.
Funnel Shooters into the Paint
Besides Hill, who Boswell should be denying the ball, none of the other perimeter players for VCU are above average finishers inside the three-point line. Make them put the ball on the ground and either shoot a midrange or finish over an Ivisic. Do not overhelp and allow catch and shoot threes.
Stay Out of Foul Trouble
This is typically not an issue for the Illini, but it has reared its head in a couple losses, and VCU will be hunting it. Mirkovic and Boswell in particular will be guarding VCU’s best players and will need to be smart to avoid bad fouls.
Which player do you think is the key to victory in this one?
