Who: No. 16 Iowa State (2-0, 1-0 Big 12) vs. Iowa (1-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium (61,500) – Ames, Iowa
When: Saturday, Sept 6th, 2025 – 11:00am CT
The Links
WATCH: FOX
PxP: Gus Johnson; Analyst: Joel Klatt; Sideline: Jenny Taft
LISTEN: Cyclone Radio Network – Varsity App, TuneIn Radio or Radio Affiliates
PxP: John Walters
; Analyst: Eric Heft; Sideline: Ryan Harklau
The Cy-Hawk rivalry is less a football game and more a statewide family feud where everyone
shows up wearing either cardinal and gold or black and gold, and nobody agrees on who brought the potato salad. Iowa State fans roll in with underdog energy and hope, while Iowa fans arrive with smug Big Ten confidence and an air of “we’ve done this before.” The game itself is usually a chaotic mix of blocked punts, questionable officiating, and turnovers that feel like gifts no one wanted. No matter who wins, the losing side insists it “doesn’t even really matter” while secretly plotting revenge for 365 days. By Monday, both fanbases are back at work pretending to be civil, but deep down everyone knows the trash talk won’t stop until next September.
Last Time Out
The Iowa State Cyclones handled the South Dakota Coyotes, winning by a final score of 55-7 on Saturday in Jack Trice Stadium. After Iowa State scored quickly, USD would recover for a 75-yard drive, their only successful one on the day. Apart from that one drive, to say it was all Cyclones would be a gross understatement.
After Iowa State scored quickly, USD would recover for a 75-yard drive, their only successful one on the day. Apart from that one drive, to say it was all Cyclones would be a gross understatement. For the game, Iowa State would put up 306 yards passing to go with 223 yards rushing, totaling an impressive 529 yards on the day.
Much like last year, Rocco started the game with a big play, hitting Bret Esklidsen for a 66-yard gain before Rocco found Brahmer for a touchdown.
Iowa State moved it down the field methodically before Abu Sama punched it in via the wildcat from 15 yards out, making it 14-7. A USD interception followed, resulting in yet another touchdown, going to Brahmer again. The tight ends featured prominently in this one, if you couldn’t tell. The highlight of the game may have occurred before halftime when Kyle Konrardy lined up for a program and Jack Trice record 63-yard field goal and proceeded to nail it with a kick that would have been good from 70.
The second half was all Cyclones, and the game quickly turned into a snooze fest. To run through the stats, Iowa State had over 500 yards, and Rocco was excellent, going 19/20 for 278 and 3 touchdowns before giving way to Alex Manske, who also had a nice quarter.
Dylan Lee led the Cyclones in yards with 81, followed by Manske, Abu Sama, and Easton Miller. Gabe Burkle led the home team with 84 yards receiving and 1 TD and Brahmer added 47 and 2 TDs. Brett Eskildsen really stared again, catching 2 balls for 77 yards.
Iowa State Offense vs Iowa Defense
Rocco Becht led a much more effective pass offense against South Dakota, with a clear emphasis on featuring the TEs while the transfer WRs get acclimated to Taylor Mouser’s system. Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle have been featured heavily, and there has rarely been a play where there hasn’t been multiple TEs on the field. Xavier Townsend was also able to get involved last week. This would be a great game for Chase Sowell to make an impact.
We know the deal with Iowa’s defense at this point. Phil Parker’s unit will play fundamentally sound and rarely miss an assignment. However, Albany was able to move the ball through the air a bit in the first half last weekend. If there is a “weakness” to exploit, and that is relative, it’s in pass coverage. TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee are not as strong as what we have seen at CB in past years. Xavier Nwampka famously struggled in coverage against Jaylin Noel last year, and he is back as a starting safety. Iowa is also breaking in new linebackers this year. Let Mouser and his army of TEs cook.
Iowa’s defensive strength is definitely along the line. Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett lead the way on the edges, and Aaron Graves will be an All-Big Ten type performer in the middle. For years, Iowa State has attempted to be physical at the point of attack and establish a running game against Iowa, and for years, they have struggled. There’s a pretty good chance we will see that game plan deployed again. A ton of pressure will be on the Cyclone offensive line. This is where playing the game in Dublin against a P4 defensive front should benefit us. By the 4th quarter of that game, the offensive line was getting a solid push and Carson Hansen was able to grind out yards. If the line can hold their own, the chances of winning the game go up significantly.
Iowa State Defense vs Iowa Offense
It’s honestly hard not to laugh looking back on what Iowa did against Albany last week. They clearly wanted to get Mark Gronowski and the pass game going early, but he was so bad that they had to abandon the strategy and just run the ball every single play, since that was needed to win the game. Gronowski admitted that he was too amped up for the game. He held the ball too long. He missed open receivers. He didn’t trust himself to let the ball go. Iowa’s pass catchers will also come into the game banged up. Reece Vander Zee, Iowa’s best returning receiver, is out with an injury. Seth Anderson and Jacob Gill have never been productive, but they have at least been around for awhile. I would be looking out for Tim Lester trying something creative to get Kaden Wetjen the ball. He is the closest thing they have to an explosive offensive playmaker.
For Iowa, it’s all going to be about the run game. Starting RB Kamari Moulton will not play due to an injury. Redshirt Freshman Xavier Williams ran for over 100 yards last week, and Jaziun Patterson is a familiar name. I would be attributing a lot of those yards to the offensive line. This is clearly the best unit on Iowa’s team. The unit graded out as the best o-line in the country last week, according to PFF. Logan Jones is a potential All-American as a center.
Defensively, Iowa State’s front seven will be under a ton of pressure. Domonique Orange was a game wrecker in Kinnick last year. He’ll be tasked with doing much of the same this year. A big difference for Iowa State so far this year has been health. It’s crazy how that works. Caleb Bacon and Will McLaughlin will make a difference in run defense, and through 2 weeks, the Cyclones are giving up less than 100 yards per game. That’s a huge improvement from 2024. The secondary should be the strength of the defense, but they have been a little bit leaky so far. Obviously, you take the field conditions and the first game of the season into account, but Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman is still learning how to play coverage and gave up a big play against K-State. I just don’t see Iowa finding any explosive pass plays (they haven’t done this since like 2017) unless Iowa State has a lapse in coverage.
Three Keys to the Game
- Hold Your Own on the Line of Scrimmage
- Iowa’s only path to victory is through dominating in the running game with their offensive line and using their defensive line to put pressure on Rocco Becht. Iowa State has been great in run defense with a fully healthy lineup through 2 weeks. Kansas State was able to get to Rocco and speed him up in Dublin, but if he has clean pockets, he will pick apart the Iowa defense.
- Don’t Beat Yourself
- This one sounds simple, but against Iowa, it never is. Rocco threw a pick 6 in the 2023 game, and threw an INT on his own 10 yard line last year. Iowa State has had punts blocked, fumbles on the goal line, and of course, guys running into each other in punt coverage. The coverage breakdowns cannot happen, because Iowa won’t manufacture explosive pass plays on their own. Iowa very rarely makes mistakes. This game will be “won in the margins” as Matt Campbell likes to say.
- Get Pressure on Mark Gronowski
- Iowa State is still struggling to establish a consistent pass rush. Gronowski looks unsure of himself and held the ball for way too long against Albany. Unless he has made huge improvement in the last couple of days, speeding him up will force him into mistakes.
Prediction
Everything that has happened on the field this year points to Iowa State having the advantage in this matchup. But, this is the CyHawk game. It’s going to be weird. There will be turnovers. There will be a lot of punts. There will probably be a weird special teams play at some point. Mark Gronowski will definitely play better this week, because he cannot play worse than last week. In the end, I think Iowa State’s big game experience and Rocco Becht’s poise under pressure will prove to be enough for Iowa State to grind out a low scoring game. Iowa State gets their first home win over Iowa since 2011.
Iowa State – 21
Iowa – 17
