Beside LeBron James choosing the 76ers, the Jazz trading Walker Kessler to the Lakers for a crazy amount of picks was probably the biggest surprise of the offseason.
Utah received two future unprotected picks as well as two pick swaps from the Lakers. The pick swaps are in 2028 and 2030 while the PIcks are in 2031 and 2033. Those swaps may not deliver much to the Jazz unless something happens to Luka Doncic. We’ll see if this is finally the season where Doncic stays healthy/in-shape (something said
by every national pundit every season about Doncic).
For all those picks and that risk, the Lakers got a super star, right?
Well, no.
Did they get a player that will absolutely be better than whoever the Jazz draft in 2031 and 2033?
Probably?
At least they got a player better thant whoever the Jazz have left at center.
…
Wait, what?
So about that.
If you look at what the Jazz got from Jusuf Nurkic last season, they might have a very comparable player in terms of impact. Walker Kessler is the better rim protecter, yes, but Jusuf Nurkic might bring similar production in the areas the Jazz need and is a better player in others.
If you look at a comparison of Jusuf Nurkic and Walker Kessler at Dunks and Threes, Jusuf Nurkic is just slightly less impactful than Walker Kessler according to their Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM – an all-in-one player metric that predicts a player’s contribution to the team in points per 100 possesions). Here is their comparison.
You can see that Kessler’s impact is where it really counts in his true shooting percentage and his block rate percentile. Nurkis has a surprisingly good steal rate for his position and is a legitmate weapon assisting the ball in the Jazz offense.
When you consider that Jaren Jackson Jr. provides the blocks and weakside shot blocking that they’ll miss in Kesselerm the trade makes a ton of sense. Utah will also have Nurkic as an offensive hub at times and Jackson can play off of him at multiple spots on the floor. Here’s Jackson’s EPM profile for reference.
There’s no doubt that Utah will miss some of the elements of Kessler’s game, mostly on the defensive end. Although, Utah has set themselves up to be one of the most lethal offenses in the league and Jusuf Nurkic will be a major part of it.
You also have to consider that adding Darryn Peterson will be one of the most fascinating additions any team will make this season. Utah likely couldn’t believe how much they were getting in the Kessler trade knowing that playing Nurkic would likley soften the landing for Peterson as he enters the league. Nurkic elite assists rate will allow Peterson to receive a wide array of off-the-ball shots and won’t force him into too much on-ball playmaking responsibility too soon. Now, Peterson might be so good it doesn’t matter, but this will allow him to do things like take more catch-and-shoot threes than he might have playing with Kessler.
The more you dive in, the more the trade makes sense for Utah and gives a window into how they plan to play this season, and in the future. Congrats, Lakers, you got your guy. But if you look at what the Jazz are left with, they’re in as good a spot as they were before, if not better.
