Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
After a very good 2025 season,
Daniel Jones returned from injury looking to pick up where he left off. Week 1 didn’t exactly go according to plan. The Colts struggled to consistently move the ball through the air, and Jones finished near the bottom of the league in several key measures. So was it just a little rust after the layoff, or is there more going on? Let’s dig into the numbers and see what happened.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, 0″>qbsr epa/p, adj/p
- The Colts had one of the best rushing attacks in Week 1, but for they still leaned heavily on the pass on early downs (3rd ARSR, 5th EDP).
- Jones faced a lot of pressure despite getting the ball out relatively quickly. He wasn’t spending much time in the pocket though and with the short target depth, this looks like an offensive line that wasn’t giving him enough time for much to develop downfield (10th PR%, 19th TIP, 16th TTT, 23rd ADOT).
- The short throws turned into short completions, and Jones didn’t get much help from his receivers after the catch either. With very little production through the air or after the catch, the Colts ended up near the bottom of Week 1 in yards per completion (22nd AY/C, 24th YAC, 23rd YACOE, 26th YD/C).
- Jones didn’t exactly help matters with his accuracy. Even with the relatively short throws, his adjusted completion rate was below average, completing fewer passes than expected, although the pressure and limited pocket time probably didn’t make his job any easier (23rd ADOT, 19th AC%, 25th CPOE).
- With short completions, little YAC, and poor accuracy—and it’s not surprising he finished near the bottom of Week 1 in yards per attempt (27th AYPA).
- When things broke down, Jones rarely tried to escape with his legs and instead threw the ball away against pressure. His overall abandoned-attempt rate ended up right around average (10th PR%, 24th SCR%, 6th TA%, 18th SCK%, 16th AA%).
- But that didn’t fix the bigger problem and once everything was accounted for, Jones still finished near the bottom of Week 1 in overall yards per play (29th NY/P). With such little production, it’s not surprising the Colts pass game struggled to get first downs and touchdowns. The turnover didn’t help eiether (29th NY/P, 22nd 1ST%, 22nd TD%, 13th TO%).
- The final numbers are about what you’d expect from everything above. Jones wasn’t consistently producing successful plays, and the plays that went badly were costly enough to push his EPA per play all the way down to 30th in Week 1 (21st QBSR, 30th EPA/P).
mouseover definitions: ay<, dp%, ay/c, yac, yd/c, ac%, aypa, drp%, aypa, ta%, ypa, sck%, ny/a, scr%, ny/d, car%, ny/p, 1st%, any/p, td%, any/p, to%, any/p, epa/p, opd, adj/p adj/p
Jones’ efficiency curve shows pretty clearly how the pieces came together. His lack of deep passing pulled down his completion depth, and the combination of limited yards after the catch and poor accuracy pushed him near the bottom of the league in adjusted yards per attempt. His poor first-down and touchdown production didn’t lift his efficiency and by the time everything is accounted for, his EPA per play finishes near the bottom of Week 1.
The game was defined by a handful of costly negative plays that overwhelmed the few productive stretches. The biggest damage came from the first-quarter interception (-4.8 EPA) and two costly sacks (-1.9 and -3.4 EPA). Jones did have some strong positive plays, particularly in the fourth quarter, but he just could not get consistant positive plays.
Compared to last year, Week 1 continued the downward trend of Indianpolis passing. Of course that is comprised of 3 different QBs, but still, not good.
HOW FAR?
Too many incompletions and no deep passing. The clearest rhythm came toward the end, when Jones put together a long stretch of first downs driving to a touchdown, but too little, too late.
After attacking much farther downfield over the final three weeks of last season, the Colts went considerably shorter in Week 1. Jones’ 6.6-yard average depth of target and 5.0-yard average depth of completion were both well below those recent levels.
Shot throws, short yac, lots of incompletions.
TO WHO?
Pierce led the way in yardage. Nobody else worth metioning.
At least Pierce and Downs are in the good quadrant.
HOW ACCURATE?
When adjusting completion rate by removing drops and throw aways, Jones was about average, but according to CPOE he should have done better. Deep passing was almost non-existant.
HOW FAST?
Jones got rid of the ball with average quickness but when adjusted for depth of target it was a little slow relative to the league.
TO WHERE?
That’s a lot of red. No real story there other than passing was poor pretty much everywhere.
