With just three games left to go before the ACC Tournament, the Syracuse Orange women’s basketball team is now a few steps closer to securing its second March Madness appearance in three years.
Syracuse enters this week sitting in sole possession of third place in the conference, with a 21-5 overall record and an 11-4 record against the ACC. Several bracketology projections recently released still have the Orange just inside the bubble, but it’s at least better than being right in the thick of it.
With a key stretch ahead for the Orange, here is a deep dive of some of the latest postseason forecasts, some of the opponents Syracuse could see in the upcoming NCAA Tournament as well as its current resume.
Three of the key bracketology projections out there — published by ESPN, CBS Sports and Her Hoop Stats — all have Syracuse between an eight-seed and 10-seed, depending on the bracket.
CBS Sports remains the most optimistic of the Orange, who are an eight-seed in its latest prediction. In it, Syracuse would play No. 9 Illinois (17-8, 7-7, No. 32 in NET). Should the Orange win in this universe, that would set up The Kamilla Cardoso Bowl versus No. 1 South Carolina.
ESPN’s latest bracketlogy update, which was published on Tuesday, is forecasting the exact same matchup with the winner having to play UConn. The only difference is Syracuse is a nine-seed, while Illinois is the eight-seed.
As for Her Hoop Stats, it has the Orange as a projected ten-seed. In its latest update, Syracuse would hypothetically face Georgia (20-6, 6-6, No. 34 in NET). Winning this First Round game would mean ‘Cuse has to face No. 2 Michigan again. The Orange earlier this year lost a neutral-site contest to the Wolverines by over 20 points.
With these projections, there’s two key questions to address. The first is one with a more optimistic view: is there any chance the Orange could move up, and if so, by how much?
As of Tuesday, Syracuse ranks No. 38 in NET. Three-fourths of the resume are also strong. The Orange are 12-0 against Quadrant 4 opponents, 3-0 versus Q3 and 5-1 versus Q2. That also includes wins over other bubble ACC schools, notably Clemson, Miami, Stanford and Virginia. In the non-conference slate, Syracuse also picked up a win against Utah, another bubble team not from the ACC.
The main “blemish” for ‘Cuse: it’s 1-4 in Q1 games. The losses have notably been by big margins: 20 to Duke, 20-plus to Michigan and 19 to Louisville. The closest one was a six-point defeat on the road in overtime to North Carolina, the lone result you’d imagine the team would like back.
That said, two of Syracuse’s last three opponents are legit Q1 win opportunities (albeit, both on the road). The first comes on Sunday versus NC State; after that, it heads to South Bend to face Notre Dame. In all three bracketology projections mentioned above, those two programs are projected six- to eight-seeds, as of Tuesday.
Getting even one win against either of them will certainly be an uphill climb. Syracuse is projected to lose to NC State by 10 and Notre Dame by eight, according to WarrenNolan.com. Two close losses or even one close and another blowout loss, in a worst-case scenario, drops the Orange down a seed. However, a win could propel them up to a seven or eight.
If Syracuse were to stay around this range, the major downside is having a tough Round 2 opponent, someone likely of UConn’s or Michigan’s caliber. But, the opponent in Round 1 would likely be from a team ranked in the middle of a bigger conference like the Big Ten or SEC. Its odds of winning would at least be above 50% in most scenarios.
The other question to answer: how far is Syracuse actually above the bubble?
Here are the resumes for the teams mentioned in all three of the aforementioned postseason forecasts, in comparison to Syracuse:
Long story short with all these numbers: it would be *really tough for the Orange to be left out, at least compared to the consensus group of teams just in or out of the tournament field.
Syracuse is one of three teams with a perfect record against Q3 plus Q4 opponents, and only one of two among P4 teams. It’s also tied for second with most Q2 wins (along with BYU and just behind Arizona St.) and fifth among the group above in NET (trailing Villanova, Mississippi State and Virginia by less than handful of spots). And, despite only having one Q1 victory, the Orange do have one and have at least a puncher’s chance to pick up one more, either in the next two weeks or in Charlotte.
Most likely outcome: Syracuse remains a nine-seed, gets an opponent it could beat in Round 1, but a bear of an opponent in Round 2. The upset outcome is the Orange picking up a second Q1 victory in its next two games and jumping up to seven, with potentially to move to six. The least likely, but “anything is possible” scenario, losing to NC State and Notre Dame both in blowout fashion, then barely squeaking by Boston College. That could put a lot more pressure on getting results in the ACC Tournament.
In short, there’s still plenty of ways for the Orange to move up or down. As of now, barring any disastrous result, it appears ‘Cuse should be in line to go dancing soon.
