Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned that the Phillies have made Trea Turner available in a trade. Of course, that doesn’t really mean much, as it would be almost impossible to move the underperforming Turner and the remaining seven years and roughly $200M he is still owed, and that is before factoring in his full no-trade clause. We have to acknowledge that reality before we even entertain the idea of any theoretical trade.
With that said, nothing is truly impossible. Bad contract
swaps are uncommon in MLB, but they do happen. One such trade occurred just last offseason when the Mets sent Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Marcus Semien. Nimmo at the time was still owed over $100M over five years of an eight year, $162M extension that he signed with New York prior to the 2023 season while Semien was entering the fifth year of a seven year, $175M deal he inked with the Rangers before 2022. Both players were coming off of disappointing seasons and were on the wrong side of 30, with Nimmo being 32 at the time and Semien 34. The early returns after one season favor the Rangers, as Nimmo has fared better in Texas than Semien has in New York. It was a vastly different situation than the one the Phillies face with Turner, but it’s proof of concept that trades like this can happen.
With that in mind, earlier this week Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Rangers may be interested in another similar type of trade, as they are looking to move Corey Seager. The two-time World Series MVP will turn 33 in April and is still owed $155M over the next five seasons. Seager underperformed last season but was still worth 3.1 WAR with a 112 OPS+. However, the major caveat with Seager is that he has missed a chunk of time with injuries in each of the last four seasons, as he’s averaged only 112 games played every year since 2023. Despite this, he’s still averaged 5.4 WAR over the same span, suggesting he is still a productive player in the time he is actually on the field. But he had a career low .736 OPS in 102 games last season, perhaps signifying the beginning of a decline in his bat.
In a world where the Phillies were to work out a Turner for Seager trade, the Rangers would be getting a player who is one year older, less productive, and who is signed for two years longer but has largely remained healthy over the last five years. The Phillies meanwhile would perhaps be getting a better bat and defender at shortstop for a shorter term but with the large risk that said bat along with Seager’s overall health may get much worse in the coming years. It’s not an ideal swap for either team, but it hardly ever is in trades of this type.
Again, it is highly unlikely that a trade for Turner manifests itself. The most likely scenario is that the Phillies are stuck with him and have no choice but to hope he finds a way to improve. But in a world where a trade was possible, would you be willing to do a bad contract for bad contract trade? What other hypothetical trades would you consider?
