On Saturday, Amar’e Stoudemire, Doc Rivers and Mike D’Antoni will be among the latest inductees to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.
LeBron James is an absolute lock to join them in the next few years. Players now have to be only two years removed from their retirement to become eligible for enshrinement, and James will undoubtedly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer as soon as he’s eligible.
He might not be the only member of the 2026-27 Sixers who finds himself in the Hall of Fame one day, either.
Joel Embiid is already putting together a convincing resume, although he still may have work to do before he becomes a lock.
Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame probability model—which is based on height, NBA championships, peak win shares, All-Star selections and appearances on statistical leaderboards—currently gives Embiid roughly a 66 percent chance of becoming a Hall of Famer one day. LeBron, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokić, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are all viewed as locks, while Karl-Anthony Towns, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Klay Thompson are among the active players ahead of Embiid in the model.
So, would Embiid already be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow? If not, what else does he need to accomplish to become a lock?
Is Embiid already a Hall of Famer?
Every eligible NBA player who won at least one Most Valuable Player award is already in the Hall of Fame. Derrick Rose may eventually put that to the test, but based on that alone, Embiid should be in.
Rose got off to a meteoric start in the NBA. He won Rookie of the Year, was named an All-Star in his second season and became the youngest MVP in NBA history in his third year. But an ACL tear during the 2012 playoffs upended the trajectory of his career. He never received another All-Star nod upon his return, although he did emerge as a Sixth Man of the Year contender late in his career.
Injuries have also plagued Embiid throughout his career, but he’s sustained his greatness far longer than Rose did. He finished as the MVP runner-up in back-to-back years before finally outdueling Nikola Jokić in 2022-23, and he already has seven All-Star nods and five All-NBA selections to his name. He also led the league in scoring in back-to-back years and has yet to average fewer than 20 points per game across any of his 10 active seasons.
Only four players in NBA history have at least seven All-Star nods without making it into the Hall of Fame: Chris Paul, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joe Johnson and Larry Foust. CP3 just announced his retirement in February and is a Hall of Fame lock as soon as he becomes eligible for enshrinement, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Aldridge and/or Johnson eventually wind up in the Hall as well.
Embiid’s lack of playoff success is the major knock against his Hall of Fame candidacy, but luckily for him, it’s the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame, not just the NBA Hall of Fame. Players’ college and international accomplishments get considered as well, and Embiid helped Team USA win a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Embiid wasn’t just tagging along on the group project, either. While he was quiet for most of the Olympics, he bailed Team USA out against Jokić and Serbia in the semifinals. Curry might have never gotten his “nuit nuit” moment against France if not for Embiid.
Embiid’s NBA peak alone might be enough to earn his ticket to Springfield one day. His Olympics exploits should only be the icing on the cake.
Does he still have work to do?
If Embiid isn’t already a Hall of Fame lock, two main things will be holding him back: injuries and a lack of playoff success.
Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injuries and has played in only 490 of a possible 801 games since he made his debut. He combined to play only 96 games over the past three seasons combined.
Embiid went into this past season thinking he “was done” because of the knee injury that submarined his 2024-25 campaign. However, at the end of the year, he was optimistic that he and the team “found something” that should have his knee in better shape next season. (His new svelte look can’t hurt, either.)
With LeBron James and Jaylen Brown now in the fold, Embiid isn’t likely to average 30-plus points per game again anytime soon. The Sixers don’t need him to do that anymore, and reducing the wear and tear on his body during the regular season should be one of their top priorities. But even if his per-game averages dip, staying healthy could go a long way toward addressing the other major knock on his resume.
Embiid has yet to drag the Sixers past the Eastern Conference semifinals, although he’s had plenty of heartbreak and near-misses along the way. While the East looks loaded this year, the talent around him makes this arguably his best-ever chance to go on a deep playoff run.
If the Sixers make it to the conference finals or beyond before Embiid retires, his Hall of Fame case will be that much more iron-clad. If Embiid ever helps the Sixers win a championship, the Hall might as well start working on his plaque right then and there.
But if injuries rear their ugly head again and Embiid never makes it past the conference semifinals, the “what if?” aspect of his career might be the only thing that could hold him out of the Hall.
As if the Sixers needed any extra motivation heading into this all-in season, a championship would go a long way toward cementing Embiid’s Hall of Fame candidacy—and Brown’s as well, for that matter.
