Earlier today, I made a little trade deadline preview where I discussed some of the bigger names and set the stage for August 3rd. Now, I want to talk about 3 under the radar targets. As we know, the Nats bullpen has been a weakness for this team, but relievers tend to be available at the deadline. Sam Bachman, Jaden Hill and Caleb Kilian are the names I will discuss today.
The thing that ties all three of these guys together is that they are flamethrowing righties. Kilian has the slowest fastball
at 96.7 MPH, while Bachman averages 98.6 MPH. The Nats need an infusion of stuff at the back end of their bullpen, and any of these guys would bring that.
The first guy I want to talk about is Sam Bachman of the Angels. Bachman was a top 10 pick in the 2021 draft, but he did not have the control or pitch arsenal to stick as a starter. However, he throws absolute fuel and has a wipeout slider. That slider generates whiffs at a 41.8% clip despite Bachman using the pitch over half the time. It is a borderline 80 grade pitch.
To go with that, Bachman has the 99 MPH sinker to go with that. The sinker helps him generate ground balls at a 50% clip this year. Having a GB% over 50 and a K% over 25 is a very enticing combination. Bachman’s one big flaw though is his strike-throwing. His 12.5% walk rate is not good, plain and simple. That is a big reason why his FIP is over 4. Bachman’s ERA of 3.31 and xERA of 3.21 paint a prettier picture though.
At just 26 years old, and with plenty of pedigree, there could be more meat on the bone for Bachman. We saw the Blue Jays pick up a hard throwing righty in Louis Varland and transform him from a good reliever to one of the best in the sport. Paul Toboni could try the same thing with Bachman, who is under team control through the 2030 season.
Another high velocity arm Paul Toboni could target is Jaden Hill of the Colorado Rockies. He averages over 97 on his fastball and has a whiff rate in the 88th percentile. Right now his surface level stats are not great, with a 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. However, you have to consider that he pitches half of his games at Coors Field.
Hill also had a 2.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP entering June before a few bad outings. Even if June has been rough for him, the Nats should still be calling about Hill. He posted a 3.38 ERA in 28 outings last year, and has been good for most of this season. Hill also has not even hit arbitration yet, but the Rockies are deep in a rebuild and could cash in like the Nats did with Jose A. Ferrer.
Hill has a fastball that averages 97, but his slider and changeup are arguably his two best pitches. The slider is used the most and has a 38.2% whiff rate and .172 average against. Meanwhile, the changeup has a bonkers 46.8% whiff rate. Even the 4-seam fastball gets a lot of whiff, at 29.6%.
Like Bachman, control has been an issue for Hill. His 14.2% walk rate is a serious issue, but last year that number was around 9%, giving me more optimism. If that walk rate is fixed and he takes a leap from getting out of Coors, the 26 year old has a lot to love if you are the Nats.
He is also an LSU product, which the Nats have a few of. Hill could be a hidden gem in DC. Teammates Victor Vodnik and Seth Halvorsen have a similar profile, but I think Hill is the best of the 3.
Lastly, if the Giants are open for business, one player I would take a look at is 29 year old reliever Caleb Kilian. The right hander had some buzz a few years ago, but had some years in the baseball wilderness. Now he is back and has nasty stuff and a ton of team control.
Like all these guys, Kilian throws gas, with a fastball that averages 96.7 MPH. He uses it 50% of the time, and the pitch which has ride and cut sets the tone for his arsenal. Batters are hitting just .157 against the offering. In April, Kilian dominated against the Nats in that crazy extra inning loss.
Along with the heater, Kilian has a knuckle curve and a slider that both have a whiff rate over 40%. Kilian is the biggest strikeout artist of the three guys we will talk about, with a 28.6% K rate. However, even in a pitcher friendly environment, Kilian was quite homer prone, allowing 1.39 HR/9. His walk rate of 11.3% is high, but not horrible for a reliever.
Given his age and shorter track record, Kilian probably will cost the least of these three. He is more of a one-dimensional strikeout artist compared to the other two, but he can punch guys out. In the bullpen, getting whiffs is king. Kilian can do that in a big way.
All three of these guys would slide into the back of the Nationals bullpen and be upgrades. That Louis Varland trade I talked about earlier could be a good comparison point, especially for the first two names. The Jays gave up talented lefty Kendry Rojas and outfielder Alan Roden. A comparable package for the Nats would be Alex Clemmey, Christian Franklin and maybe one other piece because I think Rojas is a bit better than Clemmey.
Trading for pitchers with team control is something I think Paul Toboni should be aggressively pursuing. In the majors and in the minors, the Nats are lopsided towards hitting. That creates an opportunity to make moves for pitching, either at the deadline or in the offseason.
