Last week, I got the game half right. The offense did enough to put up 18 points except for two special teams failures on field goal attempts. Given how poorly Belichick and Lombardi assembled this offense,
and against Wake’s defense (a national top 20 unit), that was about as much as one could hope for. UNC’s defense, however, allowed one of the worst P4 offenses out there to run all over it and score more points than Wake did in its last three ACC games combined. A defensive and special teams effort like that against Duke will result in a blow out.
Mike Elko raised Duke football to a competitive level above UNC’s. Diaz hasn’t built on that success, and relative to expectations the program seems to be slipping backwards a bit this year. UNC came into the season on hype afterburners after landing a coach with eight Super Bowl rings to his name, but that crashed and burned in game one. UNC’s program these days only gets mentioned as a punch line or an object of sympathy. We may be adding
“cautionary tale” to that list if Belichick doesn’t achieve something – anything – respectable this season.
Would a win over the Blue Devils change the narrative? Don’t care, it’s Duke; that’s the only motivation necessary. Let’s see if we can find a plausible path to a win for our Tar Heels.
2025 Season So Far: Edge Blue Devils
Duke went into this season with Darian Mensah at the center of its hopes and hype. UNC went into this season with Bill Belichick at the center of its hope and hype. Mensah’s earned his money, putting up big numbers and lifting Duke to a winning record in conference. Belichick’s been a bust.
When UNC pulled out the 8 figure salary for Belichick, one of the operating assumptions, a non-negotiable precondition, was a massive sideline advantage over the likes of Manny Diaz. Heading into this game, it’s hard to say Diaz has clearly been a better coach than Belichick. However, Diaz nailed his portal QB, while Belichick absolutely whiffed. Diaz’s team overall rates “average,” dead middle of the bell curve. That’s a C. Belichick’s ranks in the bottom quartile of the sport despite one of the easiest schedules in the game and a gargantuan NIL budget. That’s an F.
Nothing would make me happier than Belichick and the Heels upending Diaz’s Blue Devils. Nothing would make me grumpier than Duke celebrating an insurmountable lead the entire 4th quarter. If ever Belichick is going to prove he’s still got it, please let it be this game.
Tar Heel Offense vs Blue Devil Defense: Edge Blue Devils
This week’s stat highlight: long scrimmage plays. Duke’s defense has allowed 151 plays of 10 yards or longer this season. 56 of those went for more than 20 yards. Put another way, 27% of the yards gained against the Blue Devils this year came on only 8% of the plays it faced. Opponents beat Duke’s defense with big plays. Lots and lots of big plays.
Unfortunately, UNC ‘s offense makes big plays infrequently. North Carolina has 22 plays gaining 20 yards or longer on the season. Most of those have come in the passing game, believe it or not, as the run game has popped exactly four plays all season longer than 25 yards. If Gio and his receivers can’t connect deep, keeping pace with the Duke offense becomes a real problem.
The Tar Heel offense’s intention game-to-game seems to be to sustain long drives by running the ball, hit explosive pass plays when defenses creep up, and stay clean relative to penalties and turnovers. If that sounds dirt simple, it is. Control the ball, control the clock, take advantage of opponent turnovers. The key problems with it are also simple. The run game doesn’t consistently move the ball, no matter how many tight ends Kitchens throws out there. Lopez throws both late and off-target, red flags that weren’t present in his game at South Alabama. Can’t run, can’t pass: 112th offense in the country
Duke will dare Lopez to throw against them. UNC’s offensive success likely comes down whether the offensive line can protect better and Lopez can throw better.
Tar Heel Defense vs Blue Devil Offense: Edge Blue Devils
This week’s stat highlight: long scrimmage plays (again). Duke’s offense ranks 17th in long scrimmage plays. For context, their 165 explosive plays have generated 2,000+ yards, more than 2/3 of what UNC’s offense has produced all season. Remember that Wake Forest’s offense, which came into last week’s game ranked below the Tar Heel offense, won that game largely on the strength of two explosive plays and a run game that cranked out 170 yards.
UNC’s defensive raw ranking of 34th in this metric looks great, but those raw numbers have been achieved against a very weak set of offenses. How weak? Collectively, the strength of scheduled faced by the defense ranks 109th in the country. As a result, the opponent adjustments in advanced metrics drop UNC’s defense considerably. Another perspective: the Tar Heel defense in its last three games faced QBs with lower rankings than Lopez. Add Charlotte and Richmond to the list of opponents with QB play worse than UNC’s this year, and you’re looking at fully half of the schedule.
Count on Duke being very aggressive against this secondary. Duke has five pass catchers — three wide receivers and two tight ends — averaging 12+yards per catch. That tests a secondary’s depth. Poor angles or arm tackles in the secondary will lead to chunk plays turning into TDs. A UNC offense forced into “catch up” mode is a disaster waiting to happen. The defense cannot get burned.
Special Teams: Edge Tar Heels
Nothing with special teams seems to jump off the page. Duke’s field goal efficiency points to the importance of short-field defense. Any time Duke has to settle for a field goal attempt longer than 40 yards, it’s a coin flip. UNC does a better job of covering punts. Duke’s blocked a couple of kicks, and after the Wake game, that seems especially notable. Otherwise, special teams doesn’t on paper look to move the needle much in this game.
Odds Review
Duke stands as a 6.5 point favorite in this game, with a total of 51.5. That’s an implied result of 29-22 or something in that vicinity. Given how challenged one of these offenses has been, that total seems suspicious. The UVA-Duke game last week totaled 51 points, and the UNC offense wouldn’t be mistaken for either of those units. Bluntly, if Duke wins by close to the spread, I don’t see how the total approaches 51. If the total ends up 51 or more, I think that’s a game in which Duke wins by far more than 6.5.
Summary
The path to a UNC win in this game has the UNC offense playing an entire game the way it did in the second half against Syracuse and Stanford. The defense plays an entire game the way it did against Virginia. Special teams plays clean. In that scenario, UNC wins 27-21.
If UNC’s offense ends the first half with 3 points (again), and the defense surrenders some explosive first half plays (again), then the second half could be an avalanche of Duke points and UNC unsportsmanlike conduct flags. There’s a very real chance of defensive quit in this game if the Duke lead seems insurmountable. We’ve seen it before this season.
Hoping for the former scenario, not the latter. GTHD
