The #13 Illinois Fighting Illini travel to unranked Northwestern for the next chapter in a pretty major non-rivalry. The Illini are 144-46 against the ‘Cats all time and are all but certain to end this
season ahead of Northwestern in the league standings.
A peculiar pattern has emerged specific to the Illini game at Northwestern in recent years, however…
2024-5
Last year, the #19 Fighting Illini took a 6-1 record into Welsh-Ryan Arena. Despite being the favorite, they lost a frustrating overtime game in which they scored much worse than their season average. There was much consternation among the Illini faithful, and Brad Underwood seemed to be absolutely beside himself.
They immediately beat #20 Wisconsin to embark on a 7-game stretch with only one loss (to #1 Tennessee by two points) that included big road wins at Oregon and Washington and vaulted them all the way up to #13 in the AP Poll. The loss at Northwestern seemed to be a teaching moment that served as a springboard to better things. Illinois would win their home game against the Wildcats en route to a tournament berth as the 6 seed.
2023-4
Two years ago, the 14-4 Fighting Illini took a #10 ranking into Welsh-Ryan Arena having soundly defeated the Wildcats at home. Despite being the favorite, they lost a frustrating overtime game in which they allowed many more points than their season average. There was much consternation among the Illini faithful, and Brad Underwood seemed to be absolutely beside himself.
They immediately beat Indiana to embark on a 9-3 finish to the season that culminated in a Big Ten Tournament championship. The loss at Northwestern seemed to be a teaching moment that served as a springboard to better things. Illinois would continue winning until running into UConn in the Elite Eight.
2022-3
Three years ago, the unranked Fighting Illini took a 9-4 record into Welsh-Ryan Arena having lost their #16 ranking thanks to a horrifying 22-point loss to Missouri. A get-right game against Bethune-Cookman had preceded the Northwestern contest and Illinois looked to rebound. Despite being the favorite, they lost a frustrating game in which they scored well below their season average. There was much consternation among the Illini faithful, and Brad Underwood seemed to be absolutely beside himself. This was the game where the THUNDERWOOD edit of him screaming on the sideline was born.
They immediately beat #14 Wisconsin to embark on a stretch of 7 wins in 8 games, pushing their record to 16-6. They beat #21 (?!?!) Northwestern at home for their 19th win, which was one short of locking them into the tournament. The loss at Northwestern seemed to be a teaching moment that served as a springboard to better things. Illinois would get win 20 against Michigan en route to a tournament appearance as a 9 seed.
Conclusion
Let’s ignore the prior two years in which the Fighting Illini defeated the Wildcats on the road.*
There’s enough data to make a prediction for tonight’s game:
Nick Martinelli will drain three after three in the second half and it will be enough…
…to cut the lead under 20. Illinois rolls.
*if you looked at those games you’d find that they lost 3 of their next 7 in 2022 and their next two in 2021
