Still seeking its first Big Ten win of the year, Northwestern men’s basketball now runs into its biggest test yet.
The ‘Cats are slated to take on No. 12 Michigan State on Thursday in a contest that promises
to be even more difficult given that it takes place on the road in East Lansing. Here are three keys to pulling off a potential upset.
Box out effectively
Despite not having any 7-footers on the roster, the Spartans are an elite rebounding team, leading the Big Ten with 13.9 offensive boards per game and ranking second in the conference with an average of 42.7 rebounds per game. Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Coen Carr are all major factors on the glass, making Michigan State a nightmare matchup for many teams.
Unfortunately for the ‘Cats, rebounding has been a huge struggle, as their average of 33.7 rebounds per game ranks 15th in the Big Ten. No Wildcat averages more than 6.5 boards per game this year, and at times throughout the season, it has seemed like the effort simply hasn’t been there on the glass. Perhaps the most worrisome example of this was NU’s first-half stretch against Howard on Dec. 30, when it got outrebounded 20 to 10 by a far inferior Bison squad.
Arrinten Page will need to be reliable on the boards, but the ‘Cats will need more of their players to be effective in rebounding to have a chance against MSU. Often, past Wildcat squads have made up for size disadvantages with rebounding from their guards, but outside of Angelo Ciaravino at 4.3 rebounds per game, no Wildcat guard averages two or more. In an ideal world, NU would start to make a shift in that regard on Thursday, helping it avoid costly second-chance points and missed defensive opportunities.
Force significantly more turnovers than giveaways
One of the few major bright spots for the Wildcats this season has to been in their turnover margin. So far, they have managed to force 12.1 turnovers per game this year while giving up just 8.8 per contest, the latter of which is the best mark in the Big Ten.
Meanwhile, MSU ranks fifth in the conference with an average of 12.4 turnovers per game. While turnovers haven’t impacted the Spartans too much this season, forcing them while taking care of the ball may be necessary for the ‘Cats to make up for the extra rebounding possessions MSU is likely to have. If NU can somehow manage to force 15+ giveaways while holding onto the ball at its usual rate, it would go a long way toward keeping the game close.
Find the right guard rotation with a focus on defense
Sometimes, it has been Jayden Reid’s day. Other times, K.J. Windham or Max Green has gotten hot off the bench. At other points, the Wildcats have benefitted from the defensive presence of Ciaravino, Justin Mullins or Jordan Clayton.
The only common denominator here is that the ‘Cats have had many “hot hands” at guard, but they’ve also had several games where prominent guards in the rotation have struggled mightily. Wildcat head coach Chris Collins has been willing to shake up his lineups on a game-by-game basis, but because each of NU’s backcourt players bring different strengths, it has been tough to play each one for the right number of minutes each night.
In a game against an MSU squad ranking 13th in the Big Ten with 79.1 points per game, it’s hard to say how the ‘Cats should approach things at guard, but their best bet is likely to feature players like Ciaravino, Mullins and Clayton to keep them stout defensively. The former two players have the height to rebound effectively, while Clayton is a tenacious defender who can handle the challenge from MSU guard Jeremy Fears Jr. If the Wildcats can turn in a solid defensive performance, they’ll likely be able to keep the game close for longer than expected, which may be their best strategy for a victory in place of a futile offensive shootout similar to the ones present in so many losses already in 2025-26.
