Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight contenders Aljamain Sterling vs. Brian Ortega will collide this weekend (Sat., Aug. 23, 2025) at UFC Shanghai inside Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China.
Sterling’s transition into the Featherweight ranks has been largely seamless, as the “Funkmaster” is still grounding bigger opponents with relative ease. He came up just short to unbeaten contender, Movsar Evloev, last time out, but even that back-and-forth decision loss demonstrated that Sterling is very
much the real deal up a weight class. Meanwhile, Ortega has struggled in recent years, losing three of his last four bouts. On the plus side, that win came via stoppage over Yair Rodriguez (re-live that here), who nearly found himself in yet another title fight this year, so it’s not like “T-City” is completely washed. There were talks of Ortega abandoning ship in favor of the 155-pound division, but for now at least, he’ll fight to keep his Top 5 spot.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Sterling vs. Ortega Betting Odds
- Aljamain Sterling victory: -278
- Aljamain Sterling via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
- Aljamain Sterling via submission: +400
- Aljamain Sterling via decision: -115
- Brian Ortega victory: +225
- Brian Ortega via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
- Brian Ortega via submission: +800
- Brian Ortega via decision: +450
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Sterling Wins
Sterling is a masterful wrestler and still perhaps the sport’s best backpack. Once Sterling gains hold of his opponents, they typically really struggle to escape his grasp. On the feet, Sterling is a high-activity, funky mix of kicks, elbows, and single shots that isn’t always pretty but is usually pretty effective.
In this bout, Sterling has a couple options. He’s the much better wrestler, so he gets to pick and choose whether to engage Ortega’s jiu-jitsu on the canvas or try his luck with the Californian’s boxing. Ideally, I think Sterling mixes up his attack and wins in both areas, but he has to do so on his terms to avoid diving into a guillotine choke or uppercut.
Speed is the key here. Sterling should keep his feet moving and poke at Ortega with long range kicks and jabs. “T-City” can be foot slow, which should amplify Sterling’s natural edge in quickness. If he can get Ortega reaching after him, the takedown will come easily when Sterling wants it, and he can always retreat back to the stand up if Ortega’s guard work is bothering him.
Stick-and-moving alongside reactive takedowns should keep “Funkmaster” in the driver’s seat.
How Ortega Wins
Ortega is one of the most opportunistic finishers in UFC history. He’s got nasty power in his hands and excellent jiu-jitsu skills, particularly from his back. If Ortega senses a hurt or fatigued foe in front of him, few are better at sealing the deal.
Generally, Ortega’s style relies on opponents making mistakes, moments of laziness induced by fatigue during chaotic fights. He’s a king of the comeback for this reason, and it feels reasonable to assume that he’ll need a finish in the second half of this fight to upset Aljamain Sterling.
Fortunately, he has five rounds to work.
The answer is pressure and activity. Ortega is known as a slow starter, and he cannot make that mistake in a 15-minute fight versus such a good wrestler. Letting Sterling build an early lead to then play keep away would really kill his chances. Instead, Ortega has to press forward and throw in combination, targeting the body as often as is reasonable.
When Sterling goes to shoot, Ortega has to make sure Sterling is forced to work hard and earn his takedowns — he can’t just flop over. Once on the mat, Ortega must keep making Sterling expend energy by using his offensive guard work to threaten submissions and land elbows. If he offers Sterling no place to rest, his odds of catching the former champion late improve greatly.
Sterling vs. Ortega Prediction
The paths to victory for either man are clear enough, the only question is who is better able to implement their strategy.
On the whole, I favor the speed of Sterling as the greatest deciding factor. He should be able to poke at Ortega and disappear away from return fire at a reasonable rate. Any time Ortega gets too aggressive, the takedown should open up. Ortega is tricky to deal with on the canvas, but Sterling is an excellent grappler in his own right. He’s not just a wrestler helpless with his submissions, so he should be able to navigate a dangerous guard reasonably well.
Prediction: Sterling via decision
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