We have had some time as a fanbase to digest the gut-wrenching loss this past Sunday to the Green Bay Packers. As usual, I’ve heard a tremendous amount of blame directed toward head coach Aaron Glenn for some of his decisions that arguably warrant criticism. Again, you’ll also hear some valid criticism for some of the usual suspects: Geno Smith, Arian Smith, Brandon Stephens, Jeremy Ruckert, and, hell, I’ve even noticed plenty of negative commentary about Armand Membou, who had an uncharacteristically
disastrous game. But I’ve noticed that the fanbase, as well as the national media, has been shockingly quiet about one underperforming player. And when you compare what the Jets are paying for, I think it’s extremely misplaced not to talk about him. The Jets need more from Breece Hall.
Let me preface my overall statement once again by clarifying that I’m talking about Breece Hall’s performance at this moment in time. I fully understand it’s only been two games. I fully understand that Breece Hall is an extremely talented player and that this is an extremely small sample. Things can and likely will change. Hall could run for 200 yards this upcoming Sunday and all will be right for a while, and the sentiment and tone would, and should, be different. But from what I’ve seen so far, I’m disappointed.
Hall, unlike some other players on the Jets, should have higher expectations attached to him. After all, he’s one of the laughably few players on this roster who is getting paid like he should perform at a high level. Take a holistic view of the Jets’ financial situation and roster, and you’ll see an obvious signal: the Jets are not paying top dollar pretty much anywhere. If you ignore the fact that Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, two guys who aren’t even on the roster, have the highest cap hits, Hall is one of the few Jets players who has actually received a second contract with the team and is getting paid considerable money relative to his position.
Hall currently ranks eighth in APY by contract among running backs, and his cap hit this year is the third highest on the team. That’s a long-winded way of saying this: the Jets are paying Breece Hall to be one of the better running backs in the league and one of the best players on their team.
So far, based on what I’ve watched, that just hasn’t been the case. Rewatching the game this past week, Hall came across as indecisive in his reads. This wasn’t particularly different in Week 1 where I thought Braelon Allen arguably outplayed him. While the Jets offense has been competent through two weeks, I’m not sure Hall would crack my top 10 names when explaining why that has been the case. Outside of a terrific play after the catch at the end of the third quarter this past Sunday, Hall didn’t really elevate the offense or, to be honest, prove that he should be getting a heavy workload.
And if you don’t want to take my word for it, there are plenty of stats that tell a similar story.
A few years ago, Next Gen Stats developed a stat called Rushing Yards Over Expected, or RYOE. RYOE is an advanced football metric designed to isolate a running back’s individual skill from the quality of his offensive line blocking. At its core, it asks a pretty simple question: how many yards did a ball carrier gain compared to what an average NFL running back would have gained in the exact same situation? The more yards, the better. If you’re consistently below expectation, you’re probably not playing particularly well.
Currently, through two weeks, Hall ranks 48th out of 52 qualified backs in RYOE, producing -16 yards over expectation. Now, this isn’t a perfect stat. No stat is. RYOE can occasionally be driven by a handful of amazing runs that carry a running back’s performance over the course of a season. However, even when you try to account for that statistically, Hall’s numbers aren’t much better.
When tracking the percentage of runs that were positive, meaning they gained more yards than expected, Hall ranks 43rd out of 52 backs, with only 28.9% of his runs yielding positive results. Ian Hartitz of RotoWire also tweeted out another interesting stat, which is included in the tweet below.
Even from a yards-after-contact perspective, Hall has ranked poorly, coming in 43rd out of 44 qualified backs. His PFF grade has him 43rd out of 59 backs, and even if you find all of these stats to be too nerdy or advanced, yards per carry tells a similar story. Hall is currently averaging a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks 38th among qualified backs.
Again, none of this means Hall is suddenly a bad running back. It’s only two games, and I don’t want to give off the impression that two weeks is enough to completely rewrite our opinion of a player who has already shown us what he’s capable of doing at the NFL level. But when you combine what I’ve seen on the field with what the numbers are telling us, it’s hard to come away from these first two games thinking Hall has played particularly well.
I don’t want to sound too harsh. Things can flip quickly in this league, and all it takes is one strong performance for Hall to potentially look great in all of these stats. My main concern is simply that if this team was ever going to outperform expectations this year, or win more games than what their 31st-place ranking in active cap spending would suggest they should, it was going to happen because they got a few great performances from their guys on rookie deals and strong performances from the handful of players they identified as worthy of larger contracts.
Hall is one of those players, which is why I think the expectations need to be different for him. This isn’t about demanding that he run for 150 yards every Sunday. It’s about recognizing that the Jets have made a strong financial commitment to Hall and, as a result, they need him to consistently look like one of the better players on their roster.
That doesn’t mean I’ve given up on Breece Hall. It doesn’t mean I think the contract was a mistake. It doesn’t mean I think he’s incapable of returning to the player we have seen. It simply means that, through two games, he hasn’t been good enough.
History suggests that Jets fans won’t be patient if that continues. Soon enough, they’ll expect more from Breece Hall, and honestly, the Jets should too.
