This group was supposed to be the strength of the team coming into this year, but they ended up with an up-and-down season and were not nearly as dominant as we all hoped.
Paul Skenes
The issues started with Pittsburgh’s ace. Coming off of a Cy Young season, Skenes was expected to dominate once again. Only, the former best pitcher in baseball wasn’t exactly excellent. He certainly had his moments, but compared to what we’re used to from Skenes, he was merely good. And good wasn’t good enough.
Skenes had a noticeable
drop in velocity this season. Some speculated it was intentional to prolong his career, while Skenes himself said the WBC did some damage to his stamina. Some prominent Pittsburgh media members accused Skenes of being out of shape. Whatever the reason, Skenes’ ERA slipped to 3.82 to go along with a 10-11 record. He still struck out 200 and finished with a WHIP of 1.12, all really good stuff, but he went through a particularly brutal mid-year stretch after a fast start where he couldn’t buy a win. Had Pittsburgh been able to count on their ace the whole season, this very well could have been a playoff team.
This is a key upcoming season for Skenes. Will he bounce back, or is this the new normal for Skenes? Only time will tell.
Mitch Keller
Another let down for the year, Keller was particularly bad. He had the worst ERA of any regular Pirates starter at 5.29, and his year ended early due to a shoulder issue. The 30-year-old Keller finished 6-8 with a 1.37 WHIP and just 89 strikeouts in 116 innings. That was his lowest number of strikeouts in six years. Keller is signed through 2028, due to become a UFA in 2029. There was a time when he may have had some value on the open market, but that has dissipated after this past season. Keller himself said he expects to be throwing sometime in October and will be fully healthy for next year, but is his goose cooked at this point?
Braxton Ashcraft
The pleasant suprise of this group, Ashcraft had a strong season that resulted in an All-Star Game appearance. He finished the year with a 14-6 record, a 3.65 ERA, 173 strikeouts and 1.09 WHIP. He did finish the year on the injured list, but postseason testing has shown no structural damage, so Ashcraft should be right back at it at full strength in Spring Training. Ashcraft is pre-arb, so he’ll absolutely be back, and should he kick off next season at full strength, and if the Bucs can get Paul Skenes back to the Skenes we know, the Bucs could have as an effective one-two punch at the top of their rotation as any team in the league. A guy can dream, can’t he?
Bubba Chandler
One of Pittsburgh’s top, young pitching prospects, Chandler was set up for a big year, but he was yet another big disappointment instead. For his second season on the mound for the Bucs, he finished 8-10 with a 4.62 ERA, 154 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.40. We were all expecting more out of the 24-year-old righty, but the good news is he’s still on the young side. But moving forward, the Bucs are going to need more consistency from Chandler. He was particularly bad at the end of the year, though, giving up 17 earned runs in the month of September.
Carmen Mlodzinski
Mlodzinski only started 12 games this season and was moved to the bullpen for Jared Jones, where he famously got all up in his feels about losing his spot in the rotation. But as a starter, he was pretty bad. In the 12 games he started, he finished with a 2-6 record, 5.85 ERA, a 1.758 WHIP and just 44 strikeouts in 52 innings pitched. He also walked 20. Low and behold, he was significantly better out of the bullpen. In his 25 relief appearances, he went 6-1, with a 2.55 ERA, a Skenes-like 1.090 WHIP, 53 strikeouts and 24 walks in 72 innings, so the Bucs made the right decision. Does this mean he’s done as a starter? Not necessarily. Keller could be on his way out sometime, leaving a nice window before Seth Hernandez hits the Majors. But with Mlodzinksi up for arbitration in 2027, the Bucs have a decision to make. Mlodzinki’s future is anything but certain.
Jared Jones
Jones missed the start of the year still recovering from injury, but he took Mlodzkinski’s spot in the rotation in late May, and despite a slow start an an uneven summer, by September, Jones was cooking. In five September starts, Jones pitched 29 combined innings and gave up just 3 earned runs and struck out 40. That strong finish made his final stat line look pretty good. He finished with 5-6 record, 3.72 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 123 strikeouts in 101 innings. Jones is also arbitration eligible in 2027, but the Pirates have shown a ton of faith in him, and I doubt he’s going anywhere anytime soon. He’s not a UFA until 2030. If Skenes, Ashcraft, and Jones can all have good seasons next year, the Bucs will be on track for a much-needed bounceback year from their starting rotation.
