The Sweet 16 is set:
In the East, it’s #1 Duke vs. #5 St. John’s and #3 Michigan State vs. #2 UConn.
In the South, it’s #9 Iowa vs. #4 Nebraska and #3 Illinois vs. #2 Houston.
In the West, we get #1 Arizona vs. #4 Arkansas and #11 Texas vs. #2 Purdue.
In the Midwest, #1 Michigan faces #4 Alabama, while #6 Tennessee gets #2 Iowa State.
Duke fans are excited because Pat Ngongba played against TCU and Jon Scheyer said there’s an outside chance that Caleb Foster might play Friday. That’d be helpful because Rick
Pitino has long loved to press. Like Kansas, St. John’s was awful for much of Sunday’s game, but at the end, they really rallied and played championship basketball.
If you missed this, Flory Bidunga and his Kinshasa teammate Paul Mbiya, both picked up 4 fouls guarding Zuby Ejiofor.
Michigan State and UConn should be interesting. We don’t think that Tarris Reed can pull another 31/27 night like he did against Furman, but he’s a load inside. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot behind him, and Michigan State has a lot to throw at him.
Iowa and Nebraska have played twice, and the Huskers won them both. The first time, it was by 57-52, and the second, 84-75 in overtime in the Big Ten tournament. It’s tough to win three in a row.
Illinois and Houston should be a hoot. The Illini are an offensive powerhouse, and Houston is a punch in the face defensively. We would almost always bet on the defense in a game like that.
Our first sense of Arizona and Arkansas is similar. Darius Acuff is a special player, but Arizona defends very well, and he won’t have as easy a time getting inside.
We kind of like Texas over Purdue. There’s no rational reason. Just a hunch.
Michigan should handle Alabama with relative ease.
Tennessee vs. Iowa State is rather fascinating. The Cyclones may not have Joshua Johnson, and that’s a big loss. However, Iowa State is really impressive. One of the best things of this past weekend was one of the Cyclones saying they figured if they hit Kentucky hard enough, they’d fold.
It won’t be as easy against Tennessee, but at this point, we like Iowa State.
Some other notes…One thing to keep in mind as you handicap the field is culture. Here are the teams ranked by retention of talent:
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Duke
- Houston
- Arizona
- UConn
- Illinois
- Iowa State
- Tennessee
- Nebraska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Iowa
- St. John’s
- Texas
- Michigan
It’s only one data point, but it wouldn’t be a shock if the top four here were the Final Four. The smarter coaches seem to keep a pretty good core together and augment it with useful pieces.
ESPN re-ranked the field, and here it is, too:
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
- Houston
- Illinois
- Iowa State
- Purdue
- Michigan State
- St. John’s
- UConn
- Arkansas
- Alabama
- Nebraska
- Tennessee
- Iowa
- Texas
There’s been a lot of angst (or glee), depending on your point of view, about Duke’s first weekend. We’re not too fussed, honestly.
First, Duke has started slow quite often this season, and has been much better in the second half. That it happened with injuries to Caleb Foster and Pat Ngongba, even if Ngongba played on Saturday, is the first point. And it’s important.
The second point is that Duke adapted and overcame. It’s worth keeping that in mind as you look ahead to Duke’s date with St. John’s.
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