The betting market has no idea what to do with the San Francisco 49ers this season. Last week, oddsmakers installed the Niners as 5.5-point favorites. By the time the game kicked off, the line was down to 3.5, indicating that people with money who move markets believed the Colts were the right team. The 49ers won by 21 points and covered the 46.5 total on their own.
The Browns’ line was 5.5. The Panthers were 7.5-point underdogs. The Cardinals’ line was as low as 3.5. It’s as if oddsmakers are daring
you to take whoever the Niners are playing. What will we see this week?
FanDuel Sportsbooks has the 49ers as 3-point favorites, with the total set at 52.5. That’s the highest total the 49ers have had since I can remember, and three points higher than Week 10 against the Los Angeles Rams. This game could very well be played in the 60s.
The matchup is not a good one for the 49ers’ defense. What many thought Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ rushing attack would do last week is what the Bears’ offense will do this week. The Niners’ defense ranks in the bottom 2 in rushing success rate, while Chicago ranks second in the same statistic.
The Bears’ ground game should open up 1-on-1 opportunities, screens, and play-action shots for Caleb Williams to take advantage of. Williams can also scramble, which is something Robert Saleh hasn’t had to deal with in a couple of months.
If it’s not a favorable matchup for the 49ers, it’s an awful one for a Bears defense that was on the field for 39 minutes against Malik Willis and the Green Bay Packers last week. On the surface, EPA per-play would indicate the Bears have the 12th-best defense in the NFL.
This team has had the ball bounce their way more times than any in the league. The Bears are first in interceptions per game and second in fumbles per game. Filtering out turnovers, Chicago drops to a bottom-five defense in EPA per play.
Since Brock Purdy returned from injury, the Niners are second in EPA per play. On the season, they’ve allowed the fewest sacks, while Chicago is 26th. The Bears are a defense that struggles to stop the run, which is a big no-no against a Kyle Shanahan offense.
The Bears could certainly luckbox their way into another victory. It seems like they’ve defied the odds and done so all year, but I’d expect the team that needed an onside kick and a quarterback injury to win last week against their heated rival to have a bit of a letdown on the road after clinching a playoff berth.
