The Cubs took advantage of a wild inning from Shane McClanahan in the second inning and plated two runs. It felt like it could have been more and they let the Rays off of the hook. Then in the bottom of the inning, a single and a couple of steals were followed by a batting practice fastball that was crushed for a two-run homer from Jameson Taillon and just like that, all of the positive vibes were sucked out of the room.
The Rays added another in their half of the second, then one in the third. The Cubs
got one in the sixth, again maybe feeling like an inning that could have been more, but still the Cubs were down one heading to the late innings. But they allowed two more in the seventh and that just didn’t leave any optimism. A homer in the ninth was too little too late and the Cubs lost their sixth in 10 games.
Baseball is so much about expectations. If you had thought the Cubs would lose 90 plus games, then you’d expect a whole lot of stretches where you lost six of 10. If you thought they’d lose 80-85, this would still be a relatively common occurrence. But, as you start upping your expectations to winning 85-90 (or more) then these stretches really hit hard. The 2025 Cubs won 92 games. They also had a five-game losing streak. You can therefore look in a stretch both before and after it where there were stretches of six losses in 10 games. Diving further, I can see a stretch in August that they lost seven of 10 in. There was a six of 10 in June, and a six of 10 in May.
This is all to say, these stretches happen. But boy, do they hit different when it’s the first 10 games. Likewise, I’m sure there are stretches of play where Alex Bregman had a .544 OPS over 10 games, or Michael Busch .552 or Pete Crow-Armstrong .487 or Dansby Swanson .482. Those stretches likely didn’t overlap and that isn’t helping. Cade Horton didn’t start the season with the Cubs last year, so obviously the team won a lot of games without him on the team. But Matthew Boyd was healthy all year. On Tuesday, the Cubs will see him miss a start. Having two of their five planned starters out isn’t optimal. You build depth and then hope you never have to use it. The Cubs are on starters six and seven before the end of the first full week of April. Starter number eight hasn’t thrown a pitch in a live game in a year. Starter number nine is working out of the bullpen and looked shaky on Sunday. At least I think he is number nine. You never want to see number nine at the big league level.
To make a Titanic analogy, I don’t think the Cub 2026 ship has hit any icebergs. It does appear to have taken on a little water early. That is more than a little unexpected. More unexpected to me is that they do appear to be sailing through water where icebergs are located. I didn’t expect it. I thought this team was stacked up a little better. And if we are being honest, even if these first 10 games have tried to shake me, I still think they’ll ultimately stack up better. But these games haven’t exactly been against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Yankees and Brewers. All of those games, a lot of Brewer games, await. Rumors of the Brewers demise appear to have been premature. That team just keeps on rolling.
Here we are though. Horton’s injury could be major. I thought he was one of two massive keys to the Cubs season. The other, Pete Crow-Armstrong. Could he leave behind his second half struggles and at least be closer to the MVP caliber first half player? The struggles have continued. He’s gotten on base some, but there hasn’t been any slug yet. Boyd’s injury has been said to be minor and the club believes it will be a minimum stint IL stay. How many times have they been wrong in recent years? Or has a guy developed some other problem while trying to work through health issues. That’s what they are trying to avoid, but there are no guarantees.
These are trying times. Baseball is going to test your conviction. I’m sure the first wave of non true believers are already looking for life vests. I think that’s premature. But it’s hard even for me to tell you that everything is smooth sailing from here. I see choppy waters. I think this team will pull through it. But it definitely looks like nothing is going to be easy with this team.
Three Positives:
- Michael Busch gets another start against a lefty starter. In the game he had a sacrifice fly, a walk, and a run batted in. He’s got to find ways to be productive on these days. The walk and the sacrifice fly both came with a lefty on the mound. This is the next step in his evolution.
- Nico Hoerner had a two-run single with the bases loaded. He’s on pace for 81 runs batted in. He hits well in traffic.
- On a day when not a lot positive happened, I’ll use this spot to hat tip Riley Martin who worked a scoreless inning. If you haven’t read any stories about Martin’s journey and you are someone who likes a good backstory, go check it out. Good for him achieving his dream. He threw a scoreless inning on the road in his big league debut. Very cool.
Game 10, April 6: Rays 6, Cubs 4 (4-6)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.105). 1-4, 2 RBI
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.075). 1-4, 2B
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.052). 1-3, BB, 2B, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Jameson Taillon (-.168). 6 IP, 25 BF, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 R (3 ER), 4 K (L 0-1)
- Goat: Phil Maton (-.140). IP, H, BB, 2 ER, K
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.119). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner batted with the bases loaded and two outs in a scoreless game. He singled and two runs scored. (.170)
*Rays Play of the Game: Jonathan Aranda batted with a runner on first and two outs in the seventh inning and he hit a two-run homer to give the Rays a three run lead. (.166)
Cubs Player of the Game: Hoerner, Kelly, Happ, Martin (other)
Game 8/9 Winners: Edward Cabrera received 94 of 115 votes and Shōta Imanaga nudged Ian Happ (48 to 42)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Edward Cabrera +6
- Miguel Amaya +5
- Hoby Milner/Ian Happ/Nico Hoerner +4
- Phil Maton/Alex Bregman -5
- Matt Shaw -7
Up Next: I visit the Trop to see Javier Assad’s 2026 MLB debut. Assad has made two starts for Iowa and has thrown seven innings. The good news? Seven strikeouts. The bad? Seven earned runs. We all know what Javy can do. In his MLB career, he’s 18-12 with a 3.43 ERA over 123 games, 115 of which are starts. He’s a pretty classic 6/7 starter to my eye. I could see him getting more somewhere in his career in a less competitive organization.
Drew Rasmussen gets the start for the Rays. The 2018 sixth round pick of the Brewers (185th overall) out of Oregon State has made two starts this year. He’s yet to have a decision, but sports a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings of work with 10 strikeouts. The Brewers managed just two hits, a walk and a run against him while striking out eight times. The Rays generally want a pitcher to go hard for four or five innings, then get into their pen. They attack with a gameplan out of the pen, with a plan of certain pitchers facing certain pockets of hitters at certain points of the game. They are usually pretty good at it and appear to have found their footing lately, winning three straight.
One other thing I’ll note, being able to watch the local broadcast here in the Tampa area. I’m not positive it was planned, but some combo of plan and the Cubs seeing only five pitches in the third inning, the interview with Kevin Cash took place between the top and bottom of the third inning rather than during actual play. Novel concept. I also heard their new owner talk for the first time and he seemed to say all of the right things. It’ll be interesting to see if they come up with any ways to improve fan engagement with this team in the way of getting fans in the seats. It has been a struggle to say the least.
