The FCS has reached its midway point for most teams and the “feeling out” phase of the fall has come and gone. Squads out there are starting to establish themselves as either contenders or pretenders and the various conference races have begun to take real shape. Several of the usual suspects are right where many expected them to be but several other surprises have stolen the spotlight. With roughly six games in the books for everyone, here’s how the playoff picture appears as though it will shake
out by the end of the next month and a half.
Predicted Top Eight Seeds
1. North Dakota State
Five games in and NDSU has done nothing but prove why its the team to beat once again this year. The Bison currently sit at 5-0 and have won their games by an average of 35.2 points per contest. Senior quarterback Cole Payton has shown why he was the right guy to replace Cam Miller as he’s thrown for 1,173 yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. It’s been the same old story for NDSU. Great QB play has been complimented by a tough running game and a stout defense. That formula always has won a lot of games in Fargo and it’s doing so again this year. They’ve sat at #1 all season long up to this point and there’s really no reason to believe they won’t the rest of the way through.
2. South Dakota State
One of the biggest question marks in the entire FCS coming into this season was what South Dakota State would look like in its post-Jimmy Rogers era and so far the Jacks have answered that in a big way. They, too, are undefeated at 5-0 with three ranked on their resume including at then-#3 Montana State. SDSU has risen to the occasion every time they’ve needed to thus far with guys like running back Julius Loughridge and receiver Lofton O’Groske establishing themselves as stars. The Missouri Valley slate, as always, will not be an easy path to navigate and some big games are still waiting but the Jackrabbits look every bit the part of a top seed right now and should be one by season’s end.
3. Tarleton State
Perhaps the story of the year right now is the continued and dominant success of a new national title contender in Tarleton State. The Texans made the FCS playoffs for the first time ever in 2024 and were expected to make another run this year. No one, though, could have envisioned what TSU has done up to this point. Running back Tre Page III is fifth in the nation with 673 rushing yards, the defense has been lights out and… oh yeah… this bunch went in and beat Army back in Week 1. Tarleton is 6-0 and has so much going for it right now. The UAC title seems like it’s theirs to lose. Even with starting quarterback Victor Gabalis going down recently, the Texans have rolled right on. A top eight seed will await if they keep playing at this clip.
4. Montana
The other Treasure State team has been playing just as well. The Grizzlies are 5-0 and have gotten to that point in a variety of ways including a couple of hard-fought comebacks. Michael Wortham is looking like the transfer addition of the year and has been a huge spark on both offense and special teams. Bobby Hauck’s team is no stranger to success and it seems as though the Griz are on a collision course with the postseason and a top eight seed but, of course, the Big Sky slate will continue to present its fair share of challenges. As of right now, though, UM is right up there among the favorites.
5. Montana State
Last year’s runner up Montana State got off to a shaky, but expected, 0-2 start after playing heavy hitters like Oregon and South Dakota State. The sky, though, did not fall through in Bozeman as Brent Vigen’s bunch has spun off four straight. Justin Lamson is playing some excellent ball under center as he fills some big shoes left by last year’s Walter Payton Award winner Tommy Mellott. The vaunted rushing attack has been deadly again, averaging nearly 200 yards per contest and receiver Taco Dowler has made a name for himself as one of the Big Sky’s best. MSU feels as though it’s rearing up for another deep run and they should have a bye when the playoffs come around.
6. Tennessee Tech
The new-look Golden Eagles have been a sight to behold so far this year and have been dominating the Big South-OVC. Tennessee Tech made some big additions over the offseason, bringing in guys like Kekoa Visperas and he’s been responsible for 15 touchdowns already. TTU has put up an average of 56.6 points per game and their closest margin of victory has been 27 points. Already 2-0 in conference play and 5-0 overall, Bobby Wilder’s squad is the clear favorite to win the league and make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. If they keep playing at this clip, however, Tennessee Tech will run the table and will surely go in with a first-round bye well in hand.
7 UC Davis
Like many of their counterparts, UC Davis is making it happen in a year in which they are trying to replace a ton of lost talent from last year. Freshman QB Caden Pinnick has been a sensation leading the offense and Rex Connors is one of the top defenders in the entire country. The Aggies had the misfortune of having their big season opener canceled midway through due to inclement weather but they’ve made up for it four wins. UC Davis has not lost to an FCS opponent yet and scored at least 30 points in all of their wins. The remaining schedule is favorable and should have them competing for a Big Sky championship by the end.
8. Lehigh
After winning the Patriot League last season, Lehigh retained a bunch of its talent and seems to be on the fast track to doing so again. A big season-opening win over new league mate Richmond set the tone and the Mountain Hawks have spun off six straight wins to start the year. Luke Yoder is one of the top running backs in the country right now with 694 rushing yards and the offensive line has done a terrific job keeping quarterback Hayden Johnson upright. Lehigh looks like it will be the favorite in each of its remaining games this year and, if they can keep piling up the wins, they’ll hoist the conference trophy again and enter the playoffs as one of the top teams in the field.
Predicted First Round Matchups
Presbyterian at 9. Southern Illinois
Perhaps the surprise of the season so far has been Presbyterian and its run to a 5-0 start. The Blue Hose don’t typically garner a ton of attention out the Pioneer League but they’ve pulled off some really impressive victories this year including over a pair of SoCon foes in Mercer and Furman. Right now they’re ranked inside the Top 25 and they’ll make a run at the Pioneer crown and the postseason (a place they’ve never been). SIU, meanwhile, looks like it’ll be an at-large selection out of the MVFC. Signal caller D.J. Williams has the Salukis at 4-1 and flying high on offense. Southern Illinois would have to really collapse to not be considered for the playoffs and they should be at home in the first round.
Abilene Christian at 10. Illinois State
Illinois State is looking to making the postseason for the second straight year but a recent loss to NDSU still proves they are not “top dog” status in the Missouri Valley. A ton of veteran talent lines the roster with guys like QB Tommy Rittenhouse, running back Wenkers Wright and wideout Daniel Sobkowicz. Those three alone make the offense dangerous and the defense has been solid as well. They should make it in and host on the first weekend. Abilene Christian likewise is seeking a return trip to the playoffs but the road is not going to be easy in the UAC. Stone Earle has been good under center, throwing for 1,396 yards through six games and linebacker Rashon Myles Jr. has been one of the top tacklers in the FCS. The Wildcats will be on the bubble come season’s end but ought to get in.
Stephen F. Austin at 11. Monmouth
Incarnate Word’s epic falloff has opened the door for someone else to win the Southland this year and that someone appears as though it will be SFA. The Lumberjacks are off to a 4-2 start and just beat those Cardinals to take over the top spot in the conference. Kylon Harris has lived up to his billing as one of the FCS’s top receivers so far with 331 yards and four TDs. The team they might get matched up against in the first round also is a contender in its conference. Monmouth might have this year’s Walter Payton Award winner in QB Derek Robertson who is putting up video game-like numbers. Robertson has thrown for 22 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yards already.
Mercer at 12. North Dakota
As per usual it seems the SoCon is eating itself alive and there are legitimately five or six teams that could win it. Right now Mercer, despite some ugly performances, is still at the top with four league wins already under its belt. The Bears won it in 2024 and are again getting production from lots of those same guys. Andrew Zock is tearing it up on the defensive line and three different pass catchers have over 200 yards. Their first-round opponent will be a UND team that will come in as an at-large from the Missouri Valley. UND has hovered inside the Top 25 all season long and has been in every game they’ve played, including their Week 1 loss at FBS Kansas State.
Villanova at 13. Harvard
Harvard is on pace to be the Ivy League’s first-ever playoff representative and has all the tools to win the conference yet again. The Crimson are again led by signal caller Jaden Craig and he’s completing 74.6% of his throws with no interceptions. Three games in and eight different pass catchers already have touchdown snags from Craig while the defense has picked off seven passes. Harvard will get a home game at this rate and they’ll welcome in CAA at-large selection Villanova. The Wildcats are 3-2 but have the coaching, offensive prowess and defensive star power to make it in but some big tests still await.
Duquesne at 14. Rhode Island
Duquesne dropped the ball last year and missed out on its usual NEC title, but the Dukes seem to be retaking their throne this fall. They are 2-0 in league play and should be able to reel off several more before they see last year’s winner Central Connecticut in the penultimate week. Duquesne will be at home for that big game and, if it wins, should have the conference. They’ll face a battle-tested Rhode Island bunch that lost its first FCS game last week. URI has had to grind out some ugly wins but is still 4-2. The Rams returned a lot of talent from their 2024 playoff team and will be in again.
Idaho at 15. Austin Peay
Idaho made the quarterfinals last season but lost so much of the team that got them there. Thomas Ford has taken over for Jason Eck who left for New Mexico and has shown that his Vandals can still be competitive. Joshua Wood grows by the week at QB but, with a conference loss already, it seems like Idaho probably won’t win a Big Sky championship this year. They can still be postseason-worthy, though. They’ll travel to take on an Austin Peay team that has really turned heads so far this year. The Governors slayed an FBS foe and went toe to toe with Georgia (yes, that Georgia) last month. They probably don’t have enough to overtake Tarleton State in the UAC but certainly do have enough to grab an at-large spot and even host.
Lamar at 16. Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona is leaving a good impression through the first half of the season in Brian Wright’s second year calling the shots. Ty Pennington is one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Sky and they have a big ranked win over UIW. Last weekend’s loss against Montana State showed that the Lumberjacks still aren’t in the top tier but that was also probably their toughest game left. NAU will make the cut and will welcome in another at-large team, Lamar. The Cardinals are quietly 4-1 with noteworthy wins over South Dakota and Central Arkansas. Defensive back Kristian Pugh has been terrific on the back end defensive end Andrew Huff is making waves up front. Front to back, Lamar is as solid as they’ve been in a while.
Predicted First Four Out
Incarnate Word
The fall from grace has been hard to watch if you’re an Incarnate Word fan. This team had such high aspirations back in the summer and entered as a Top 3 team in a lot of the polls. A season-opening upset loss to Southland enemy Nicholls, though, set the tone for what has been a tailspin of a start. The quarterback carousel has been rough with both Richard Torres and E.J. Colson has not yielded any real answers and, despite some good individual performances, it has not all come together for UIW. They’re behind in their conference now and are playing catch up to several teams; not a place to be at this juncture of the year. The Cardinals will keep things interesting but they won’t quite get in when the bell tolls in late November.
South Dakota
South Dakota has been a far cry from the team that reached the semifinals for the first time in school history last year and, the weird thing is that they still have quite a few guys that helped make that happen. Aidan Bouman was one of the best FCS quarterbacks in 2024 but this fall he’s looked like a shell of his former self, having tossed five interceptions already. Even some of USD’s wins have not done a lot to instill confidence. Losing Charles Pierre Jr. to injury has not helped the cause and a blowout loss to North Dakota State just proved that the ‘Yotes aren’t what they used to be not so long ago. Right now there’s not enough on film to believe that this team can stay afloat in a loaded Missouri Valley.
Furman
Currently it seems like the SoCon is only going to send one team to the playoffs and Furman, although it will stay in the race until the end, will not be that team. The Paladins are 4-1 but that one loss was an ugly one to a non-scholarship Presbyterian team. That won’t look good on the resume and with games against Mercer and Clemson still on the docket, Furman’s road is not easy once November gets here. The passing attack has been good but the ground game, save for Gavin Hall, has been pretty quiet. Furman will be right on the bubble when the dust settles but the teams ahead of them have done just a little bit more.
Southeastern Louisiana
SLU is hanging around in the Southland right now but it’s becoming increasingly likely that their November 8 matchup against Lamar will be the swing game that sends someone to the playoffs and keeps someone out. With the Cardinals hosting that game and playing like they are right now, they’ll have the advantage. Carson Camp has been okay at quarterback but has not wowed yet. The running game does have some weapons and the defense has had its moments. It would not be a total shock to see the Lions make it but, as of now, the nod doesn’t quite go their way.
