Perspective and context are everything. The following players have missed the majority of the Vikings’ first five games: J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman. Others, such as Christian Darrisaw, Ryan Kelly, Harrison Smith, Donovan Jackson, and Brian O’Neill, have missed significant time.
If someone told me that in July, I’d reasonably expect we’d be sitting at 1-4 right now, with 0-5 hanging around at the fringes of my thoughts. A record
of 2-3 would’ve been seen as the dream scenario. The fact that we’re sitting at 3-2 is simply amazing. There are challenges ahead, for sure, but to be in this position after everything this team has endured is a testament to KOC and his entire staff.
As we catch our breath during a much-needed bye week, here are some of the narratives and trends at the forefront for me, Mr. Average Joe Vikings fan.
What I Like: KOC’s game plan against the Browns (and what it means moving forward). Listen, there’s no bigger KOC fan than myself, but, as I noted in my prior article, the facts were the facts: He was in a slump. The numbers over the previous six games that mattered were brutal (17.7 points/284.5 total yards per game). Now, no one is going to run to the record books after 349 total yards of offense. Still, given the brutally effective defense he was up against and the circumstances surrounding the decimated offensive line, it was sheer brilliance. KOC was at his creative best, utilizing the quick, short passing game, putting new wrinkles on established looks, and showcasing entirely new plays not yet put on film. Needless to say, it worked. Before last week, the Browns’ longest touchdown drive allowed was 72 yards. Half of their 10 touchdown drives allowed were under 40 yards. The Vikings went out and had touchdown drives of 82, 71, and 80 yards (h/t DN contributor Krauser).
It portends good things moving forward, regardless of whether McCarthy or Wentz is the starter in Week 7. There will be hiccups (this is the NFL), but, given the history, we should all have confidence that KOC has indeed gotten his mojo back and that the struggles dating back to Week 18 of last year are officially in the rearview mirror.
What I Dislike: The offense’s putrid third-down productivity. To date, only the Tennessee Titans – with a rookie QB and an offensive roster that will remind no one of the 1999 Rams – have a worse third-down conversion rate than the Vikings. Not good, folks. Not good at all. That may fly against the Burrow-less Bengals and Dillon Gabriel, but it ain’t gonna get it done against the Eagles and Lions in the upcoming weeks. The key to beating those teams is to keep Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff off the field. The Broncos were able to go on the road last week and win in Philly, in large part because they held the ball for nine more minutes.
Other than turnover differential, there may be no greater indicator of success or failure week-to-week in the NFL than third-down efficiency. It would always be one of Mike Zimmer’s first talking points when discussing both offense and defense performance. KOC obviously knows this and has mentioned it often as well. If the Vikings are going to make a playoff run, this must get better.
What I Like: This team’s overall constitution. Overcoming apocalyptic injuries to key players (see above) is not easy. It takes key depth pieces stepping up admirably (Brandel, Wilson), combined with younger players making waves in key roles (Turner, Redmond, Jackson, LDR, Huber, Price). How about this little nugget: Apparently, the Vikings have played 14(!) different offensive line combinations through the first five games. Good grief.
The default setting for such a scenario in the NFL is somewhere between bad and the Jets. As mentioned, the fact that we’ve scratched and clawed our way to 3-2 and the 7th seed in the NFC playoff picture after five weeks demonstrates
What I Dislike: The penalties, man. The freakin’ penalties. Going into last week, the Vikings were second in the NFL in penalties (37), seventh in penalty yards (287), and first in pre-snap penalties. They added another seven for 50 yards against the Browns, which was tied for 19th in the NFL in Week 5. That’s better, I guess. It’s easy to blame the rotating roster of offensive linemen the previous few weeks for some of this. Still, if you’re on the roster, have been in practice, and are starting in an NFL game, I don’t think it’s too much to ask not to have multiple false start penalties every game. The same goes for illegal formations, shifts, etc. I expect the sloppiness to get fixed.
What I Like: The defense, generally. Without Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel for practically the entire season to-date, and veteran Harrison Smith slowly easing his way back in to things, Brian Flores has the Vikings sitting at first in EPA/play, fourth in yards allowed per-game (for teams that have played five games), third in pressures (tied), ninth in sacks (tied), and fifth in points per-game at 19.4. As I’ve noted the importance of third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball, the Vikings’ defense comes in at a stellar second in that metric.
With Cashman’s return imminent (I’m not so sure about Van Ginkel) and the greater scheme familiarity/chemistry that comes with meaningful game reps, the prospect for even greater improvement is within reach. Speaking of…
What I Dislike: The run defense, specifically. With Quinshon Judkins gashing us for 110 yards on 23 carries (4.8 avg.), the Vikings are now tied for 25th in rush yards allowed per game (132.2) so far this season. This is a far cry from the 2nd overall ranking in this category last year.
In the broken clock is right twice a day category, I actually (somewhat) predicted this back in April, when I noted there could be a trade-off for improving the interior pass rush:
Where the issues may arise is in run defense. In limited action last year, Allen (8 games) and Hargrave (3 games) had PFF run defense grades of 41.3 and 44.7, respectively. That falls below the 2024 grades of Phillips (54.8), Tillery (51.8), and Bullard (63.4). Injury-limited sample sizes may have skewed the sample negatively – Hargrave logged a slightly improved 51.4 in 2023, for example – but you’d be hard-pressed to make a case we’re improved here…I’m confident Flores can handle this without much worry.
I believe that Flores can fix this entirely, but he had better hurry. I can’t think of three worse teams to be facing under these circumstances than our next three opponents (Eagles, Chargers, and Lions). Even with Omarion Hampton out in Week 8, Jim Harbaugh is not going to change his bread and butter. As for Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery? Yeah, not ideal.
Cashman’s return will undoubtedly help, but it’s clear the issues run deeper than him missing considerable time (as good and essential as he is).
What I Like (Bonus): You’re still perfect in my eyes, pal.
Conclusion
I have absolutely no idea who the Vikings quarterback will be against the Eagles. By all accounts, the Vikings either don’t know, with injuries to both McCarthy and Wentz muddying the waters, or they’re purposely being coy about it for competitive purposes. McCarthy needs to start the moment he’s 100% healthy; I’m certainly not wavering about that. Wentz was unquestionably impressive in bursts throughout his three starts, culminating in the brilliant, 9-for-9, 71-yard drive, culminating with the game-winning, 12-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Addison last week. I was bullish on the signing when it happened, and it’s great to have him here to ensure quality play at the game’s most crucial position.
Whoever is under center in Week 7, they’ll begin a treacherous journey across the NFL’s fifth most brutal (.570) remaining schedule. Back in May, I predicted a 12-5 campaign. That’s still achievable, of course, but unlikely. However, nothing is stopping this team from achieving double-digit wins. We’re turning the corner on some key injuries, KOC looks to have his groove back, and Flores is a few inevitable adjustments away from fixing the run defense and making it an all-around shutdown unit.
Enjoy a stress-free weekend of rooting against the Packers, Lions, and Bears (on Monday). Also, it looks like the other rooting interests are the inexplicable Ravens (vs. Rams), Jaguars (vs. Seahawks), Colts (vs. Cards), and the Bills (vs. Falcons). Either the 49ers or the cardiac Bucs will also get their second loss, so that’s good too.
Let’s get ready for a (hopefully) exciting and successful 12-week sprint to the finish.
