The Steelers and the Dolphins enter this week as teams with little margin for error. The Steelers have regained a slim lead in the AFC North, but need to finish the regular season strong to guarantee a playoff
birth. Likewise, the Dolphins — currently on a four-game winning streak —are clinging to their playoff hopes and will likely need to win out to secure a spot. I spoke with Kevin Nogle of The Phinsider this week to get a better read on the Steelers’ opponent.
1. The Dolphins gave Tua Tagovailoa the big contract, but have struggled in the two seasons following that deal. Is Miami regretting that decision? What’s behind Tagovailoa’s struggles?
Kevin Nogle: I do not know if “regret” is the right word, but there is probably at least some buyer’s remorse there. I wish I could tell you what is going on with Tagovailoa, but there is nothing to directly attribute to the issues. He just does not look as comfortable in the offense as he did in 2023, and his play is reflecting that. His footwork seems off, he is not trusting the offensive line, and he is forcing passes into windows he should not – probably because he does not trust the offensive line to give him time to continue to make reads.
I would like to say it is getting better and he is finding his stride as the Dolphins turn to the running game and win five of their last six games, but against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, he had a 55.9 passer rating on 12-for-23 passing. Even last week, against the Jets, he was 13-for-21 for 127 yards – though he did finish with a 94.7 passer rating thanks to one touchdown and no interceptions.
Everything just looks a little off with him this year. He will be back next season because of the contract situation, but he needs to spend the offseason rebuilding himself from his footwork through his mechanics and get the game to slow down for him again.
2. At midseason, the hot seat was burning at full blast for Mike McDaniel. Now, that’s seemingly cooled after a four-game winning streak. Is McDaniel back in 2026?
KN: I think there is a good chance, unless everything blows up horribly over the last few weeks, that he is back for next year. If the Dolphins are going to have Tagovailoa at quarterback, you may as well keep the offense the same, bring back McDaniel, and see if they can fix the issues that have plagued the team this year.
But I think that leash will be extremely short. If the Dolphins start 2026 as flat as they were to start 2025, I would not be surprised with an early-season firing. Joe Philbin was fired in 2015 after a 1-3 start to the year. If Stephen Ross decides to keep McDaniel after this season, and they start off with a similar record next year, I think a move would be made quickly.
But, overall, yes, I think McDaniel is back, and that probably means interim general manager Champ Kelly returns without the interim title. If everything works out, then Kelly, McDaniel, and Tagovailoa keep moving forward beyond 2026. If it does not, all three are gone, and Miami starts with a clean slate heading into 2027.
3. During that four-game winning streak, the Dolphins have held opponents, including the Bills, to 17 points or less. What has been the key to Miami’s recent defensive resurgence?
KN: The growth of the younger players has been huge in Miami’s turnaround. Defensive tackles Kenneth Grant and Jordan Phillips are starting to hold their own, and the game seems to be slowing down for them. They are freeing up Jordyn Brooks – whose 142 tackles leads the league by 11 – and Tyrel Dodson to make plays, and it is working.
The run defense has been the biggest area of improvement, but the pass coverage has grown as well. Miami has been crushed by injuries this year, to go along with things like trading Jalen Ramsey, and they were forced to play cornerbacks who may not have been ready for such a major role. Jack Jones, Jason Marshall, Jr., and Ethan Bonner have all grown and, while there are still misplays and penalties, solidified the unit, along with Rasul Douglas stepping up big time recently. Minkah Fitzpatrick has worked in as a cornerback as well, alleviating some of the pressure there, while Dante Trader, Jr., and Ifeatu Melifonwu back him up at safety.
Finally, Miami also figured out how to force takeaways. They simply were not getting the ball back on defense early in the season (which, would include not forcing a punt in their first two games, but that is not the point here). The better play from the cornerbacks has led to interceptions, while the team as a whole appears to have not only had a deliberate focus on tackling, but on trying to punch the ball out when making a tackle. It has been effective.
Now, all that said, there is one other aspect to consider. Over the past six games, the Dolphins have faced Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Shough, and Brady Cook. Jackson threw four touchdowns as Baltimore smacked the Dolphins, and Allen still threw for over 300 yards and had a 98.5 passer rating despite Miami beating the Bills fairly handily. The rest of those quarterbacks are not exactly the marquee passers in the league. Aaron Rodgers could bring a different dynamic than some of those other quarterbacks, assuming he is able to play at full strength.
4. Who are some key players for the Dolphins, on either side of the ball, that fans of other teams might not be aware of?
KN: Daniel Brunskill is a random name that no one really knows, but he has become such a huge factor in the Dolphins’ offense, especially when you consider he is a 31-year-old offensive lineman. Miami has turned to the six-lineman formation a lot over the past several weeks, and it has been effective. Brunskill has lined up as a tight end, an H-back in motions, and as a fullback. Miami uses him to lead block, open lanes, and pass protect. Typically, if you see a sixth lineman on the field, it signals a power run, but Miami feels comfortable doing just about anything out of a formation with Brunskill on the field.
For a “skill” position play on offense, running back Jaylen Wright might be a factor in this game. The 2024 fourth-round pick could not find the field earlier this year, making his season debut in Week 7, but did not record a carry in that game. Last week, with De’Von Achane on the sideline with a rib injury, Wright recorded 24 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. Rookie running back Ollie Gordon II is the “power” back for Miami’s offense, and Achane will likely be available for the game, but Wright may have worked his way into more playing time – and I would not be surprised if there are times where two of three, or even all three, are on the field together.
For defense, several of the cornerbacks we talked about earlier could fit this, but instead, I will go to a player who is probably a recognized name, but has not been a factor for much of the year until the last few weeks. Last year’s first-round pick, linebacker Chop Robinson, has shown up the last couple of weeks, recording 2.5 of his 3.5 sacks this year in the last two games. He has almost become a forgotten part of Miami’s defense, with Bradley Chubb and Matthew Judon working as the starting edge rushers, but Robinson could factor into the game, especially if the Miami defense can slow the Steeler’s rushing attack and make Rodgers have to throw the ball.
5. FanDuel currently has the Steelers as 3.5-point favorites. What’s your final prediction for the game?
KN: I think Miami is on a hot streak, they are transforming who they are, and they are finding success. I know it will have to end at some point, and a cold, night game in Pittsburgh in December against a team in playoff position could have all the ingredients to smack the Dolphins back to reality, but I will lean toward it continuing for at least another week. This game will be close – because Miami seems to enjoy close games right now – but I will take Miami winning this somewhere around 24-21.
