I had a magnificently written blog in the works (trust me, bro) prior to the Mantha singing regarding what could be next for the Devils, but with $4.75 now claimed on the books, my primary thesis had to get ripped up and re-written. However, the main crux still exists – I still think there is some optionality out there and a few moves that can finalize the puzzle that is the 26-27 Devils roster. Keeping some cap flexibility, tons of lineup options, some upside bets and FINALLY great depth seems to be the overall
mission so far, and I’m on board. Now Sunny can go find a player that is going to be a cap casualty from a team that is in cap trouble.
As it currently stands, we have too many NHL caliber forwards, and too many left defenseman. Below is our current depth chart (NOT LINES):
FORWARDS
Mantha (L) – Nico (L) – Timo (L)
Gritsyuk (L) – Jack (L) – Bratt (L)
Mercer (R) – Glass (R) – Brown (R)
Noesen (R) – Bjugstad (R) – Erod (R)
Boqvist (L)
Lombardi (L)
Lenni (R)
DEFENSE
Luke (L) – Pesce (R)
Siegs (L) – Dougie (R)
Dillon (L) – Kovacevic (R)
Chisolm (L)
Kolyachonok (L)
GOALIES
Allen
Daws
Rittich
The first thing to note is all three of Lombardi, Chisolm, and Kolyachonok will have to pass through waivers, and I don’t think Sunny would’ve spent assets to get them to just lose them on the waiver wire. Lenni is still waiver eligible so can go back and forth and quite frankly after a good start he had some real struggles and could probably use some additional time cooking in the AHL. I didn’t even include Silayev in the defensive depth chart and to be honest I have no idea what to expect from him.
The second thing to note is that this leaves us with 26 players, so 3 over the roster limit. Another reason why teams have traditionally carried 2 goalies is to give themselves more roster flexibility with the skater group and the primary reason why I think there is more to come.
The third thing to note is that this leaves us with $3.85MM in cap space with Lombardi, Lenni, Kolyachonok all starting in the AHL according to PuckPedia. I do see Lenni starting in the AHL and the way Sunny talks about Lombardi he seems penciled in, as do Chisolm and Kolyachonok as the 6th and 7th D. So in reality, I think that number is closer to $2MM with 26 players. To pare down the roster and add some more flexibility there is likely another forward move out there, another defense move out there, and some dead weight to unload to clear room for what seems like the intended roster.
In terms of guys that are very moveable, getting mid round picks for Bjugstad and Noesen seems like pretty low hanging fruit and would free up $4.5MM. That is too much to spend on 4th liners. Noesen has a 7 team no trade list, and since I enjoyed him as a person and I would love to see the Devils send him to a great opportunity to either win or play a lot. As for Bjugstad, he was one of our worst forwards with 2 points in 26 games while getting outscored 12-8 at 5v5.
On the left defense side of things, as I wrote a few months ago, I still think Dillon is the odd man out. Similar to Noesen, I would like to see the Devils move him to a team where he has a chance to win and can be a valuable contributor in sheltered minutes. While a valuable leader and is going to make a FANTASTIC broadcaster, he got outscored 63-39 at 5v5, the biggest GF/GA gap on the team last season. This would free up another $4MM, giving the Devils roughly $10MM in space. This then paves the way for Sunny to look at a Mercer centered package who feels like the most homeless person in the above lineup – he isn’t good enough to drive his own line as a 3rd liner and is the most upgradeable top-6 player.
This all frees up a path for all three of Lombardi, Chisolm, and Kolyachonok in the NHL (with Lenni in the AHL), and a good chunk of cap space. But who do we get in that Mercer package, then Tim? Well glad you asked dear reader, because now I can get to the main point of my original blog: what teams are in cap trouble and will need to offload some contracts? We could use a new shiny top six wing, or a new 3C to move Glass down to 4C. The good news is these would be “nice to have” upgrades vs. being “necessities” that generally went unaddressed under the previous regime. There are a few teams that are in cap trouble or close to it care of puckpedia:
These cap numbers are always a bit fluid, and some RFAs have not signed putting some teams in more of a problem position than currently indicated. So I went through some team that are trouble and what may work for both sides. I would love to just video game trade “Mercer+ to Dallas for Robo” but that really doesn’t make sense for Dallas. So what is realistic?
Anaheim Ducks
Oh boy, Pat Verbeek really backed himself into a corner here. Seems like there are consequences to being a “grinder” on every penny. With Carlsson locked in at $18MM per year and Cutter Gauthier needing a new deal in the $13MM-$15MM range, he needs to unload a contract as they have only $9MM and change in available space. There area few guys that I assume will be on the top of their chopping block: Chris Krieder, Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano and Alex Killorn. Of these guys Kreider would be DELICIOUS and Terry would be an electric addition.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs are currently $2.7MM over the cap, but unfortunately Max Domi had some significant complications from back surgery and is unlikely to play this upcoming year – that would account for $3.5MM off their books. However, there continues to be smoke around one guy in particular and Mercer+ going the other way we could help them alleviate some cap issues and we would get a bigger version of Mercer who is cost controlled for longer and is a little younger in Matthew Knies.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is hilarious, they just do not operate with a care in the world. They currently sit $8.6MM OVER the cap which probably means two guys need to get shipped out. But they have to put on a show every night and that show needs to have new elements to it every year, and I’m sure they’ll find their way out of it. Two guys who I think would be interesting to look at are William Karlsson or Ivan Barbashev. Karlsson would be a perfect 3C, and with his defensive game, he could be that perfect guy to let Nico cook offensively more (and by extension Timo).
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is less than $500k over the cap and have 4-5 buryable guys. However, if they do want to unload someone, we could target someone like Parker Kelly as a 3C/4C, or swing bigger for Kadri for Mercer+. I doubt they would do anything like either of those moves, but worth a phone call.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit isn’t exactly in cap trouble and have $19MM in space with only Edvinsson to sign as an RFA. But with the Larkin rumors swirling, the sudden Yzerman departure, are they going to unload a couple older guys, build some draft capital and continue building around Kasper, Seider and Raymond? If so, Debrincat would make the best lollipop guild line in the NHL and Larkin obviously would be a strong addition.
Conclusion
I still think there are some more moves out there, the question then becomes are they offseason moves or in-season moves? He’d have to get creative with the waiver wire if this is it, but the lineup flexibility he is giving Keefe, new depth, new goalie rotation the Devils are in a far better position than we have been in the past few years. However, I chugged the Kool Aid like I was at summer camp after capture the flag so I will be reserving judgement until we see how this team is after they see Santa.
Where are you guys on where we currently sit? Do you think we roll as is? Do we all still have some PFT (post fitz trauma)? Let me know in the comments.
LGD
