Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

After a 3-3 homestand (the less said about the Baltimore matchup, the better), Houston hits the road for a 7-game stretch. First up, a 3-game set in Detroit.

Tigers Standings:

73-53 (1st in the AL Central) leading by 8.5 games; Currently the #2 seed in the AL (0.5 games behind Toronto for #1 seed, 2.5 games up on Houston)
Home Record: 39-24 (Astros Road Record: 31-28)
Record vs. AL West: 12-13 (Astros vs AL Central: 15-12)

Last 10: 7-3 [WLWWLWWWWL] (HOU: 5-5 [LWLWWLWLWL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 1-2 (@ Houston from 4/28-4/30)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 39-52
Playoff Record: 2-0 (2024 AL Wild Card…move along)

Tigers Season to Date/Since Last Meeting: It hasn’t been completely wire-to-wire, but for all intents and purposes, the 2025 Tigers have spent the entire season leading the AL Central. Even as they lost the series in Houston early in the season, the Tigers used their strong starting pitching (led by arguably the best starter

in the game, Tarik Skubal) and timely hitting to dominate the AL Central. Building off their nuclear-hot ending to the 2024 season, the Tigers entered this mid-summer leading not just the division, but also the league and MLB for best record. They did suffer the usual contender summer slump, falling behind Toronto for the #1 seed in the AL. However, they’ve seemingly regained some of their previous momentum, which along with a slighting cooling by Toronto has Detroit neck and neck with the Blue Jays for that top AL spot. At one point, Detroit saw Cleveland move within some concerning difference for the division, but now Detroit is back up to a more palatable 8.5 games up. The squad was relatively quiet at the deadline, picking up some depth pieces for the pitching staff and bench, but not making the big contending splash. The playoffs still seem a near certainty, but now the question is can they still maintain that bye that seemed a forgone conclusion just a few weeks ago.

Tigers Leaders

Offense:

HR: LF Riley Greene (28)
RBI: LF Riley Greene (90)
BA: LF Riley Greene (.265)
OPS: LF Riley Greene (.818)

Pitching:

ERA: Tarik Skubal (2.42)
Wins: Casey Mize (12)
Saves: Will Vest (18)
WHIP: Tarik Skubal (.87)

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Monday, Aug 18 @ 5:40 p.m. CDT: Spencer Arrighetti (1-3, 6.38 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (6-12, 4.76 ERA)
Tuesday, Aug 19 @ 5:40 p.m. CDT: Hunter Brown (10-5, 2.45 ERA) vs. Tarik Skubal (11-3, 2.42 ERA)
Wednesday, Aug 20 @ 12:10 p.m. CDT: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.01 ERA) vs. Charlie Morton (8-10, 5.20 ERA)

Tigers Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Dillion Dingler (.272/.319/.426)
1B: Spencer Torkelson (.242 /.335/.477)
2B: Gleyber Torres (.261/.357/.401)
3B: Zach McKinstry ( .258/.336/.432)
SS: Trey Sweeney (.204/.270/.296)
LF: Riley Greene (.265/.314/.503)
CF: Javier Baez (.269/.296/.425)
RF: Kerry Carpenter ( .266/.299/.535)
DH: Cole Keith (.262/.345/.420)

Tigers Offense: Most figure the story of the Tigers is their pitching, but their offense is helping win games as well. They rate 8^th in runs scored and slugging percentage. Their batting average (13th) and OBP (17th) are more towards the league median, but it shows that when they get the hits, they make them count. However, those numbers don’t completely take into account some offensive slumping the past month (as part of the team’s overall summer swoon). Still, they do have a few guys mashing. Leading most of the categories is LF Riley Greene, who leads the squad in HRs (28), RBIs (90) and BA (.265). Along with him includes fellow All-Star 2B Gleyber Torres (team’s OBP leader) and 1B Spencer Torkelson (along with Greene and RF Kerry Carpenter, holds an OPS over .800). Also in the mix among the stronger bats in the lineup is the former bust-of-a-SS-now-effective-CF Javier Baez, who may yet earn some ROI for the Tigers (also, there the Tigers go, trying to replicate the Astros…seeing what Houston did with Altuve, they thought they could try it with Baez…not that Altuve was struggling near as much as Baez, but…anyway, aside over). One thing that, in theory, could help Houston is that Detroit is dead last in MLB in stolen bases. They get runs, but not a lot of help from base-stealing.

Tigers Pitching/Defense: If most know anything Detroit, it is their starting pitching. Tarik Skubal is building upon last year’s Cy Young winning season with yet another ridiculously good season. Yet, he is not alone in the rotation. Former #1 pick Casey Mize has returned nicely from Tommy John surgery, giving Detroit two capable top-of-the-rotation type arms. Veteran Jack Flaherty is back for yet another stint in Detroit, and while he is giving them plenty of innings, he is not exactly pitching at ace levels. To help with depth, Detroit brought in Charlie Morton from the O’s, giving Hinch a familiar face to help navigate the stretch run. As for the bullpen, they struggled in the 1^st half of the season, and many of the deadline moves were to add arms to that weak part of the roster, to include another Astros alum, Rafael Montero. Former Nationals closer Finnegan is there to offer some stability in the 9th, and so far, so good. Overall, Detroit’s bullpen has only surrendered a 1.45 ERA in their last 7 games, so perhaps those moves helped to get their bullpen rank 15^th overall in MLB. The Tigers’ defense is 15^th in errors and 12^th in defensive runs saved, so right near the median for MLB.

Most Dangerous Player: SP Tarik Skubal. Who else? Sure, Greene is dangerous with the bat, but Skubal on the mound is Detroit’s best weapon. He dominated Houston in his 1^st postseason start last season and is slated to face off against Houston this time around. He leads the team in almost all pitching metrics and is the betting favorite to win another AL Cy Young. He did not face Houston earlier this season but clearly has some good experiences pitching against the Astros. Also, a home start really helps, where he is particularly brutal to hitters. The saving grace is that Hunter Brown is slated to represent Houston in that matchup. Perhaps hits will be at a premium for both teams.

Injuries: Yes, Detroit’s got them. Here they are:

P Alex Lange (lat); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: mid/late August
P Jose Urquidy (elbow); 60- Day IL; Projected Return: late August [Hey, we know this guy…]
P Alex Cobb (Hip); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
OF Parker Meadows (quad); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
OF Matt Vierling (oblique); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: September
P Paul Sewald (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September
P Reese Olson (shoulder); on IL July 28; Projected Return: Post-season (October)
P Sean Guenther (hip); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Jackson Jobe (elbow); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Jason Foley (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Ty Madden (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD

Intangibles: This team came into 2025 wanting to show that they are contenders now. The slump around the All-Star Break/trade deadline somewhat dampened the mood about the team, but they seem to have righted the ship. The experience of Hinch paid dividends last season, and with many on the roster now with playoff experience, things have generally been positive about the team. The rebound of Baez certainly helps the roster. Overall, things haven’t been this optimistic in Detroit in some time.

Series Outlook: It is not too soon to start talking a little about the post-season. If the playoffs started now, Houston, presuming they survive their current Wild Card round position, would open the ALDS at Detroit. AJ Hinch already got over once on his former employer in the 2024 playoffs and the young Tigers continue to show that the ending to the 2024 season was no fluke. Skubal continues to show he is among the top aces in the game (and that his next contract is going to have a lotta numbers on it). The rest of the rotation is holding up their end for the most part, and the bullpen is primed to be a part of the Pitching Chaos part deux. As for Houston, they come off a rather embarrassing beating from the O’s at home. If Houston struggled that bad against a last place team, it reasons that Detroit should get over quite nicely and Seattle will end Wednesday night leading the AL West. Then again, the numbers did say something about Houston dominating at home, so…well, baseball gonna baseball. Still, Houston’s bats will have to score more than 5 runs against Detroit over three games if they want to claim the series.

HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN:

NATIONAL COVERAGE: A potential playoff matchup like this? Uh, yeah…ALL THREE GAMES get national coverage