The Cowboys are coming off their first win of the season, but Week 3 presents a pretty obvious challenge.
Dallas is going to Brazil with an offense that has, so far, been much better through the air than on the ground, while Baltimore brings one of the league’s better rushing attacks into a matchup with a Cowboys defense that has struggled badly against the run.
So, for Week 3, here’s who to buy and who to sell.
Buy: QB Dak Prescott
Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns against Washington,
posting a cool 143.8 passer rating, and that wasn’t just a good game in isolation. Through two weeks, Dak has completed 73.8% of his passes for 454 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He’s also averaging 9.0 yards per attempt against Washington, up from 5.2 against the Giants.
Now he gets a Baltimore defense that has been good overall but hasn’t exactly been impenetrable through the air. The Ravens are allowing 191 passing yards per game, 11th in the league. More importantly, New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough had considerable success throwing the ball in the second half of Baltimore’s Week 2 loss, completing 15 of 19 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown.
Another reason to like Dak here: Dallas may have to throw. The Cowboys are averaging just 67.5 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Baltimore, meanwhile, allows only 83.5 rushing yards per game, fifth in the league.
If Dallas can’t establish the run, more responsibility falls on Prescott, and given how he’s played when asked to carry the offense so far, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Sell: Cowboys running backs
It’s not that the Cowboys running backs are bad; they just haven’t gotten going so far.
Baltimore is allowing just 83.5 rushing yards per game. Dallas is averaging only 67.5 rushing yards per game, 30th. That’s a pretty brutal combination. The Cowboys managed only 66 rushing yards on 21 attempts against Washington, even while Dak and the passing game were rolling. Dallas’ own film review acknowledged that the team struggled to establish the run.
Now the Ravens could get defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike back. He’s been a two-time Pro Bowler and was a full participant in practice this week after dealing with a neck injury. His return would give Baltimore another significant piece in the middle of its defensive front.
There’s a scenario where Dallas’ running backs still have value as receivers. Williams already has eight catches through two games. But if we’re talking strictly about the rushing production, sell it. The Cowboys will have a hard time suddenly turning into a decent rushing team against this defense.
Buy: WR CeeDee Lamb
This one is even easier after what Lamb did last Sunday. Eight catches for153 yards and two touchdowns. That performance pushed Lamb to 13 catches for 197 yards and three touchdowns through two games. He’s already averaging 15.2 yards per catch, and he accounted for more than half of Dak’s passing yardage against Washington.
The big question heading into Week 3 is whether Baltimore’s secondary can slow down the Cowboys’ connection between Prescott and Lamb, which already seems to be firing on all cylinders.
The Ravens are allowing only 191 passing yards per game, but their defense just gave up 233 passing yards to New Orleans, including 150 from Shough in the second half and Baltimore knows exactly what it’s dealing with.
The Ravens have specifically identified Lamb and Pickens as a major challenge for a secondary that could also be without safety Malaki Starks. Baltimore may use Kyle Hamilton in different roles to help deal with Dallas’ receivers.
That’s the thing about Lamb right now: Dallas doesn’t need him to be open by 10 yards to get him the football. He’s coming off a game where he caught eight of nine targets and consistently won against Washington’s coverage.
If Baltimore devotes extra attention to him, that’s when Pickens becomes even more interesting. If it doesn’t? Feed 88.
Sell: Rush Defense
This one is also easy. The Cowboys have been bad against the run. Really bad. Dallas is allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL through two weeks. Baltimore is averaging 155 rushing yards per game, fourth in the league.
Henry has already rushed for 212 yards and four touchdowns on 40 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Lamar Jackson has added another 74 yards on 11 carries. The Cowboys’ defense also has another problem: they haven’t consistently gotten off the field. Opponents have converted 17 of 25 third downs, a 68% rate, through two games.
If Henry is consistently getting positive yardage on first and second down, Dallas could spend a lot of Sunday chasing Lamar Jackson around while watching the Ravens control the clock. And remember: Baltimore just lost to New Orleans after getting outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter. The Ravens will have plenty of motivation to avoid another late collapse, and the best way to do that is probably the thing they do best: run the football.
