September has a short memory in college football. A bad month on the scoreboard still counts, but it doesn’t decide anything. Bowl invitations go out in December and they go to teams that kept rising and winning.
Halfway through the first season of a reshaped Mountain West and a rebuilt Pac-12, a handful of middle-of-the-pack teams have already shown the theme in action. Others are running low on time to do the same.
Mountain West: Rebels and Cowboys rewrite their opening chapter
UNLV opened 1-2 and its second loss was ugly. North Texas beat the Rebels 44-6. Since
then, UNLV has won three straight, capped by a 13-7 win over North Dakota State last week that handed the Bison their first conference loss.
At 4-2 and 2-0 in conference play, the Rebels are one of two MW teams still unbeaten, along with New Mexico. The defense has held three of six opponents to 10 points or fewer. That’s a strong base for November.
But the path is no cakewalk. UNLV visits Air Force (4-1) on Saturday and travels to New Mexico (4-1) on November 14th. Northern Illinois (0-5), Wyoming, San Jose State and Nevada fill out the rest of its schedule. A split of those two road games keeps the Rebels in the title-game race.
UNLV projection: 8-4, Hawaii Bowl
Wyoming also started 1-2, with losses at Colorado State and Central Michigan. The Cowboys have since won two of three in conference play, including a 16-13 grinder in San Jose last week. The team’s identity is clear: a huge offensive line and quarterback Tyler Hughes’ legs. Wyoming has allowed 12 points per game in its three wins, which offsets an offense averaging 14.5 points.
Four of the final six games are in Laramie, where opposing offenses often go stiff in late November. Northern Illinois, UTEP (1-5) and UConn (3-3) are winnable. Just one home upset of Air Force or New Mexico gets the Cowboys to seven wins and likely into the Mountain West’s first backup slot, the Cactus Bowl, formerly the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Wyoming projection: 7-5, Cactus Bowl
San Jose State (3-3) is the edge team chasing that same backup slot. More on the Spartans below.
Pac-12: Beavers and Bulldogs find another gear
Oregon State opened 0-2, losing to Houston and Texas Tech, teams that are now a combined 10-1. The Beavers haven’t lost since. Over a four-game win streak, they’ve scored 207 points, or 52 per game, while allowing 16 per game. Their dismantling of San Diego State, 66-14, last week was the loudest statement yet.
Oregon State is 2-0 in league play, with Washington State (1-5) next. A trip to Boise State (5-1) in mid-November is the one game that looks likely to cost them. If Boise State grabs the Group of Six playoff bid, Oregon State becomes the league’s best bet for the revived Poinsettia Bowl and a Dec. 23 date in San Diego with a former Pac-12 rival.
Oregon State projection: 9-3, Poinsettia Bowl
Fresno State’s season started with a 39-0 loss at USC. Since then, the Bulldogs are 4-1, allowing 11 points per game in those four wins. The only other loss was a 38-31 shootout with Boise State last week. Road trips to San Diego State (2-4) and Utah State (2-4) are favorable. A November 14th stop at San Marcos is not. Their Halloween home date with Oregon State decides how high Fresno State finishes.
Fresno State projection: 8-4, Hawaii Bowl
Texas State is the dark horse. The Bobcats are 2-3, but two of the three losses came by a combined seven points with an offense averages 35 points. Colorado State visits San Marcos on Thursday and Texas State is a heavy favorite. Utah State, Fresno State and Washington State also come to town.
Texas State projection: 7-5, an ESPN-owned bowl
Who runs out of runway
San Diego State is 2-4 and has allowed 35 points per game. The Aztecs need four wins in their final six; a stretch that includes Fresno State and a trip to Boise. Projection: 4-8
Utah State is averaging 14.5 points and lost to FCS Idaho State. Projection: 4-8
Colorado State has allowed 39 points per game and is a heavy underdog at Texas State on Thursday. Projection: 4-8
In the MW, Nevada lost to FCS Montana State and still faces North Dakota State, UCLA (5-0), New Mexico and UNLV. Projection: 4-8
That leaves San Jose State on the edge. The Spartans are 3-3 and 1-1 in league play and because they played at Hawaii, they are on a 13-game schedule. That means seven wins are needed for unconditional bowl eligibility, so they must win four of their last seven; all conference games. The path: hold serve against UTEP, Northern Illinois and Nevada in a revenge game, then steal one from New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV or North Dakota State. The Spartan offense has averaged just over 14 points over the last three games. If they remain at that clip, it won’t be enough to steal one from that latter group.
SJSU projection: 6-7, needing an open bowl slot
The first half of the season wrote the opening act. The second half writes the ending and that’s the only part anyone remembers.
