It’s not often that I acknowledge the possibility of a moral victory for the Florida State football program.
Teams that have won the national titles in the last 32 years to cement their blue-blood status aren’t often eligible for moral victories.
But then again, programs of FSU’s caliber also don’t have 2-10 seasons.
Because of this, FSU enters the 2025 season at a crossroads. The program ceiling remains as high as ever, but the reality feels as low as it has in the modern era.
A relatively close loss
in the opener, while a tough way to start the season, would be encouraging and could certainly be taken as a moral victory considering the numerous areas of the roster where Alabama appears to have a significant advantage.
The Seminoles are definitely capable of beating Alabama on Saturday. That Doak Campbell Stadium magic, even through the renovation, could be at play, and the Crimson Tide are going to be without a few key starters due to injuries.
Tommy Castellanos was criticized for his comments this summer about Nick Saban not being there to save Alabama. While they were bold words, they’re also true. Kalen DeBoer is a heck of a football coach, but he’s not Saban, as evidenced by three losses to unranked opponents last season.
Plus, I’m optimistic about what Gus Malzahn and Tony White can bring to FSU.
But as great as a win would be for FSU, it’s not likely as a two-touchdown home underdog.
And the truth is that’s ok. Because even with a top-10 upset, FSU can’t win its 2025 season on Saturday.
As quickly as people would start talking recklessly about FSU if the team was to knock off the Tide, it’s just one game. It wouldn’t mean anything unless the Seminoles carried that momentum forward into the rest of the season.
Now on the other hand, one would certainly worry about the mentals of the team if it was to suffer a lopsided loss to start the 2025 season. Sweeping roster, staff and culture changes have been the talk of the offseason. If the result looks similar to the team’s disastrous 2024 campaign — even if it is against a top-10 opponent — does the culture hold up?
Mike Norvell has to hope so. Because the truth that must be acknowledged is that a fairly uncompetitive loss is at least as likely as a win. A result where Bama jumps ahead early and holds the Seminoles at arm’s length — or even a potential steam-rolling — is certainly on the table.
If that happens, that’ll be the real test that will frankly determine the rest of Norvell’s tenure. Because no one should blame the FSU head coach too much if the Seminoles can’t pull off a top-10 upset this weekend.
But if FSU was to follow that up with a loss at Virginia in late September to finish the month 2-2? That’s when the blame would rightfully start pouring in, and it would get even harder to see a path out of this for Norvell.
The start of Saturday’s game will come as a sigh of relief. The 2024 season can finally be put to bed.
However, that doesn’t mean that sweeping judgments should be made solely based on how the team looks vs. Alabama. I realize I’m trying to stop a stampede with a ball of yarn when I say that, but some perspective with regard to this result would be helpful.
The season won’t be won or lost on Saturday, no matter what it feels like in the moment. It’s what follows that will determine that.
