Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. Looking at the recent numbers and trends for each team, we’ll add it all up to see which squad may have the edge. This week, the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys take on the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards, two touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 114.2. He finished the game with a four-play, 65-yard game winning touchdown drive in just 29 seconds.
CeeDee Lamb led the team with another massive performance
through the air. He racked up an astonishing 195 receiving yards and one touchdown, also fumbling once on an odd play.
Javonte Williams and Tyler Goodson finished with a combined 32 carries and 178 yards on the ground.
Despite these incredible numbers, the Cowboys offense failed to convert yards into points throughout the day. Held back by turnovers and penalties, it took a fantastic one-handed catch from Ryan Flournoy in the waning moments of the game to sneak out of Indianapolis with a win.
49ers key stats from last week
Brock Purdy and the 49ers finished last week with 232 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and one interception. Purdy also rushed for 40 yards and converted a touchdown with his legs.
Kaelon Black outrushed Christian McCaffrey on seven less rushing attempts, finishing with 70 yards. McCaffrey remains this biggest threat, however, finishing with 87 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
The 49ers defense limited Las Vegas to just 24 rushing yards on their way to a 38-17 rout of the Silver and Black. They forced three interceptions, including one pick-six.
The formula for San Francisco remains the same after all these years – play efficient offense and let the physical defense swing the game.
Call an aggressively smart game
The Cowboys are going to have to put up points. San Francisco just has too many weapons offensively, especially in the backfield, for this defense to shut them down for 60 minutes. It’s extremely unlikely this turns into a defensive fist fight.
With that in mind, this should be the proper week to bust out the gutsy calls. 4th and inches at your own 40? Sounds like a QB sneak to me. Dallas can choose to kick a 57-yard field goal or they can go for it on 4th and 2. This is one time where it’s ok to skip leg day. Send out the offense and attack.
Brian Schottenheimer needs to understand what’s at stake here. Nobody expects the Cowboys to win, but a win has the potential to turn this entire season into something meaningful. Call this game like your back is against the wall and your football life is on the line. It’s going to take a gutsy performance from every player and every coach this week if the Cowboys are to stand a chance.
What do the numbers mean?
The Cowboys are one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. The 49ers possess one of the best rushing attacks, utilizing two backs and a scheme where you never know where the ball is going to go. Dallas is also one of the league’s worst third-down defenses while the 49ers convert at a higher rate than almost every team. The 49ers are clearly the better team, especially when looking at their offense against the Cowboys defense.
Yet the FanDuel line is only a 4.5 point spread. This tells me that the line setters understand that Dallas has the talent in the building to keep up and win a game against the 49ers. It just takes one week for everything to come together and see an explosion from this Cowboys team. We’ve yet to see it in 2026, however.
If Dallas is to stand a chance this week, they’ll need to finally put together a complete performance for the first time this season. They’ll need to play mistake-free football while making the plays on both sides of the ball that they just haven’t done often enough in 2026. And don’t sleep on the special teams performance playing an important role in the field position battle.
If the Cowboys put out their best performance on 2026 by playing mistake free football, scoring touchdowns instead of field goals, and winning the turnover differential, I give them a 40-50% chance at winning this game.
But from everything we’ve seen, the Cowboys do not play mistake free football. They are unable to consistently get stops on defense, especially against good teams with good rushing attacks. This team has also played several games where the offense has struggled to put points on the board. To top it off, the head coach has made far too many questionable decisions that have directly impacted the results of these games.
The Cowboys are the ultimate wild card this week. Put it all together and have a chance to steal a tough win. Play the same brand of football we’ve seen far too often this season, and this could be a multiple score loss. This is the game that determines the team they’ll be the rest of the season.
