Northwestern is riding its first winning streak in Big Ten play, coming off back-to-back wins over Maryland and a strong comeback victory against Indiana. Oregon is also playing its best basketball of the season, winning three of its last four games, including consecutive victories over NCAA Tournament-caliber teams in Wisconsin and USC. Here are three keys for Northwestern to earn a third straight win.
Continue the strong defensive effort
The ‘Cats have put together a strong stretch defensively, holding Nebraska to 68 points, Maryland
to 74 and Indiana to 68. The defense was especially stifling after halftime against the Hoosiers. After allowing 42 points in the first half, Northwestern gave up just 26 in the second.
The ‘Cats were locked in over the final eight minutes, allowing only nine points during the most important stretch of the game. Indiana also went 9:33 without a field goal in the second half, from the 10:04 mark to 31 seconds remaining. Some of that was Indiana cooling off and missing open looks after a scorching first half, but Northwestern’s energy and effort clearly raised the floor defensively.
Oregon has struggled offensively this season, averaging 71.6 points per game and shooting 32.5% from three. The Ducks sit 252nd nationally in scoring and 261st in three-point percentage, so this matchup is there for Northwestern to control. Still, Oregon is coming off one of its best offensive showings of the year, scoring 85 points on 52% shooting and 47% from deep. With the Ducks feeling confident, Northwestern will need to maintain its improved intensity and execution on the defensive end to keep this game in its preferred style.
Get off to a fast start
Both teams are arguably playing their best basketball of the season. Northwestern has won two in a row, and Oregon has won two straight while taking three of its last four. Confidence will be high on both sides, and there is also a clear incentive with Big Ten Tournament positioning. The teams share the same record, and both would love to avoid playing on Tuesday by grabbing the single bye and moving straight to Wednesday.
Northwestern needs to try to take control early. Even in Oregon’s last three games, a 2-1 stretch, the Ducks have trailed out of the gate. They fell behind by eight against USC and needed a 7-0 run to close, trailed 10-4 against Wisconsin after the first five minutes and went down nine shortly after, and trailed early against Minnesota in a loss where the deficit ballooned to 19. If the ‘Cats can land the first punch and build a cushion, they can force Oregon to chase the game and play on Northwestern’s terms.
Win the star player battle
Both teams’ go-to options have been rolling over the last week. Nick Martinelli looks refreshed after a rough four-game stretch by his standards, when he averaged 13.5 points and did not shoot better than 33%. He has looked like himself again, dropping 29 on 52.9% shooting with three triples against Maryland then following it with 28 on 57.1% shooting against Indiana.
For Oregon, Nate Bittle has dealt with injuries all season, but he has been productive since returning in early February against Purdue. He has scored 14 or more in every game, including three 20-point outings.
Bittle is coming off a 20-point performance against Wisconsin, and he buried three threes in that one. The center is a real three-point threat, averaging 1.5 triples per game on 33.7% from deep. Northwestern’s bigs, especially Arrinten Page and Tyler Kropp, will need to be sharp in their pick-and-pop coverage after struggling with it throughout the season.
Even if Bittle has not had the same season Martinelli has, Oregon’s offense runs through him, especially with Jackson Shelstad out for the year. If Northwestern can limit Bittle first, it has a better chance to keep the rest of Oregon’s attack in check.
On the other end, Martinelli just has to keep doing what he has been doing. Oregon will send help when Martinelli backs down and dare Northwestern’s shooters to make them pay. If the ‘Cats defend with the same edge they showed against Indiana, start with force and keep Bittle from getting comfortable in pick-and-pop actions, they have a real path to a third straight win.
