As we know, the Diamondbacks will reportedly be cutting payroll in 2027. This isn’t all that much of a shock considering the lack of return on investment the organization has received from its record-setting payrolls over the last 3 seasons, but it is somewhat disappointing because it feels like there isn’t much help coming from within the organization to improve this team from 86 wins to 90+ likely needed to make the NL Wild Card.
Jack Sommers did some good work already this offseason regarding the
team’s likely financial space going into 2027 in this piece and the BLUF from that work is Hazen probably only has in the neighborhood of $20M to spend on reinforcements/replacements for this next campaign. That is not very much when you consider the team is losing over 200 innings of starting pitching, over 250 innings of relief pitching, and over 600 plate appearances to free agency from this year’s team.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at the Diamondbacks returning players and see if anyone in that group could bring some financial flexibility to the organization via trade. For the purposes of this exercise, I only looked at players on guaranteed contracts or who are arbitration eligible. I did not look at the pre-arb players as they will be making the league minimum and would not provide any financial relief (though they could be traded away for roster space flexibility).
This left us with 13 total players who I then divided into tiers based on how I would handle their situation. All contract numbers and arbitration estimates listed below are from Spotrac. Finally, this is not meant to be an article filled with hard numbers backing up the decision to trade or protect a player. I’m just a fan who has thoughts and I like to discuss those thoughts with you fine people of the Pit. Alright, preamble over. Let’s get to the trade possibilities!
Tier 7 – Cancelled Due To Lack Of Interest
Pavin Smith ($2.8M-Arb Estimate)
Our first tier belongs to Pavin Smith all by himself. In truth, I’d find it most likely that he’s non-tendered and we find cost savings that way. There’s a higher chance that the MLBPA agrees to a salary cap before Thanksgiving than some team deciding to give up anything for Pavin Smith. Moving on.
Tier 6 – But Who Will Pitch?
Corbin Burnes ($32.9M), Eduardo Rodriguez ($20M), Brandon Pfaadt ($9M), Ryne Nelson ($3M-Arb Estimate)
There are some names in here with decent trade value, but with all of these I find it highly unlikely they would be traded just simply due to the fact that we have next to nil major league ready pitching depth in the organization. Trading away any of these guys would mean we’d have to spend whatever savings we receive directly on their replacement.
I nearly put Corbin Burnes into the first tier with Pavin Smith because his large contract paired with his somewhat alarming lack of recovery from Tommy John would make him appealing to only a small subset of teams. Even then they’d likely want the Diamondbacks to pay most of that contract which I’d find a difficult pill to swallow considering the length and size of the deal. Burnes also has a no trade clause (full no-trade prior to him opting in to his last 4 years then a 14-team no-trade list after he opts in to the deal) complicating any potential deal if any were to be explored. I believe the team is much better off getting him right and helping him regain the ace qualities we signed for pre-TJ.
Eduardo Rodriguez would bring a healthy return with only 1 guaranteed year left on his contract (2028 is a conditional mutual option and I have no idea how that works) and he would be a steal for anyone at only $20M if he comes close to repeating his 2026 performance. However, how likely is he to repeat that? I’m betting not very likely, but the Diamondbacks don’t really have the luxury to take that bet. I think those $20M are best spent on hoping E-Rod provides league average innings or better in 2027.
Brandon Pfaadt was a revelation after his return from Reno and it’s almost a no-brainer to keep him under all circumstances, but young, controllable pitching is extremely valuable on the market and he’d likely fetch a decent return. Still, his departure wouldn’t help the 2027 team in any way. Ryne Nelson’s trade value is at a low point compared to previous years considering the steps back he took in 2026, but even if the team were to trade him and get something in return, the $3M in savings (based on his arb estimates) are too small to really fill the hole he would leave behind.
Tier 5 – Hanging Up Immediately
Corbin Carroll ($13.8M), Geraldo Perdomo ($11.2M), Justin Martinez ($3.6M)
There is no way Hazen should continue a conversation with another GM if any of these players are asked for. CC and Domo are cornerstones of this organization and JMart is too good and on too good of a deal to even consider moving on from him. Corbin’s struggles, even the extended struggles that he’s had over the last few years, don’t wipe away all the positives he brings to this organization. He’s not going anywhere.
Geraldo Perdomo may have already had the best season of his career, but we can reasonably expect 5ish WAR from him over the next several years which would make us fools to trade him. Stats and WAR aside, Domo is the clubhouse leader and soul of this team. Trading him away would be a colossal folly that would likely take the fanbase years to recover from.
JMart’s inclusion in this tier may be somewhat controversial as he’s a reliever and relievers are notoriously volatile, but pitchers like Martinez don’t grow on trees. At least not in Arizona. I was able to watch him in person during the last series in San Diego this year and he’s absolutely incredible to witness. Opposing hitters just have zero hope when he’s on his game and this organization has shown zero ability to grow that kind of filth on a consistent basis. I refuse to let JMart walk out that door.
Tier 4 – The Fanbase Would Riot. But…
Gabriel Moreno ($5.8M-Arb Estimate)
I’m going to catch a lot of flak for this, but (as my 9-year-old tries to tell me when he’s scheming) “hear me out.” Gabi is the best catcher in baseball. He was the best player on the Diamondbacks in 2026. He’s got a catch phrase. He’s cheap compared to his production. Why would I ever explore trading him when the conversation has been more about signing him to an extension? Honestly, I don’t trust catchers.
To be more specific, I don’t trust catchers’ health. Gabi has had his battles with health thus far in his career. This was the first season that he’d logged more than 380 plate appearances. Every offseason since 2023, the fans’ hopes for the next season were “if only Gabi stays healthy”. Well, he stayed (mostly) healthy and the league saw how amazing Gabi is. Can Gabi repeat that, though? Skills-wise, I know Gabi can be a top performer at his position next year, but will his body cooperate? As much as it hurts to say it, past results indicate likely not. We may have just seen the best (read: most healthy) season of Gabi Moreno’s career.
Gabi’s value is at an all-time high: 2 years of team control remaining on the best catcher in baseball. If he were dangled on the open market, I can imagine the offers would be fairly significant. During the 2022 offseason, Sean Murphy, who was entering his final year of arbitration, was traded along with reliever Joel Payamps for a package of 5 players including the Braves #1, #6, and #18 prospects and the Brewers #8 prospect.
In reality, I may be a year early on real Gabi trade speculation, but I would absolutely be gauging the market on Gabi over the next 12 months if I were Hazen. The organization feels flush with catching talent for the first time ever, but no one that’s ready for Opening Day in 2027 (assuming there is an OD in 2027). Also, I’m fully aware that this move likely makes us a worse team in 2027 and part of the $6M or so in payroll savings would be dedicated to getting one or two players capable of playing catcher for the Diamondbacks next year, but the potential return could really inject some juice into the farm and/or we could get some real relievers to replace some of the pieces departing our bullpen.
Tier 3 – “How Do You Solve A Problem Like Marte?”
Ketel Marte ($15.6M)
Where to start here? Ketel is very likely available for trade, but I have zero clue what his market is. Marte isn’t far removed from being considered the best second baseman in the game, but the down year in 2026 coupled with the avalanche of bad press he’s received/earned has likely tanked his trade value.
If the Diamondbacks do find a trade partner, it’s unlikely they’d be willing to take on the entirety of Ketel’s contract so then it becomes a question of how bad does the front office want to get out of the Ketel Marte business. If another team is only willing to pay $5-10M/year for the remainder of the contract and return nothing more than lottery tickets for prospects, would Hazen bite? Would he be forced to accept such a low offer by ownership? I’m still hesitant at trading Ketel for 20 cents on the dollar, but after listening to Kendrick’s remarks on Ketel’s “consistent acts of immaturity”, I’m inclined to think the Snakes will be without Marte’s services when baseball resumes no matter how low the return is.
Tier 2 – Going Dutch
Merrill Kelly ($20M)
I know I wrote a lot above about not wanting to trade pitching because we don’t have anyone ready to fill in from within the organization, but Kelly’s struggles in 2026 paired with his relatively large contract should make it more appealing from the Snakes perspective to explore trades involving the veteran. If I could find someone to split Kelly’s contract, I’d absolutely do it and spend the savings on bringing back Michael Soroka or going after anyone we could reasonably expect to be an average starting pitcher. I love Merrill and will always appreciate that he was our best pitcher during the 2023 pennant run and I love that he’s a local guy who went to Yavapai College (my neck of the woods!) before moving to ASU and then on to his professional career, but I think a return to average for Merrill is most likely out of the cards.
Tier 1 – Thank You For Your Service
Lars Nootbaar ($6.6M-Arb Estimate), Nolan Arenado ($6M)
Now we’ve made it to the final tier and I’m looking at the two players who I think would be the most likely to bring some sort of financial flexibility without hurting the 2027 team. It’s interesting that the pair of Diamondbacks who finished the 2025 season as St. Louis Cardinals are on my chopping block, but that’s a credit to their play over the last year that should make them appealing to other teams.
The deadline acquisition of Lars Nootbaar is looking like an overpay by Hazen, but Noot’s very good play with the Diamondbacks in the second half (.762 OPS, 111 wRC+) will give Hazen a chance to potentially recoup some of that value. The Diamondbacks can field an intriguing outfield without Lars with Carroll, Lawlar, Waldy, Troy and even Tawa who could all play on the grass in 2027, assuming none of the pre-arb fellas are traded away to fill holes at 1B/DH/P. It’s also fair to wonder if Lars’ real talent level is post-trade or pre-trade (.686 and .688 OPS in 2025 and 2026 prior to the trade). Nootbaar is one of the few lefties the D-Backs have under contract for next season, so Hazen’s stated goal of getting more left-handed takes a hit here, but if you can apply the $6M savings toward a lefty DH/1B, I have confidence that Waldy, Troy or Tawa can cover a lot of Noot’s value, especially if he regresses to his pre-trade batting numbers.
Nolan Arenado’s inclusion at the top of this trade list might be controversial, but I think sending Arenado off for the final year of his contract makes a ton of sense for a team looking to fill major league pitching depth. Arenado’s leadership, professionalism, and play on both sides of the ball were greatly appreciated in 2026, but I find it much more likely that Nolan regresses closer to his 2024/25 numbers than he repeats this past season’s success. How Nolan turned all this blue into a 30 HR campaign was a neat trick but not one I’m expecting him to repeat. Arenado’s name and #veteranpresence is also good enough that you could see any number of teams willing to bet on the future Hall of Famer coming in and making a positive contribution to their organization, even if they are also expecting his offense to take a step back. The Yankees, Phillies and Braves all finished with 1.2 fWAR or less from their 3B this year as a sampling of teams who could conceivably be interested in adding Arenado. We could fill his void with any of Fernandez, Groover, or Manuel Peña. I know that trio doesn’t seem likely to hit 30 homers next season, but I don’t believe Arenado is going to hit 30 homers either.
Well, that’s the end of my list. At most, I expect the team could maybe open up $6-10M in payroll flexibility depending on who/how many players they move. That doesn’t seem like much, but when you only have in the neighborhood of $20M to spend in the first place, that’s not insignificant. Where did I miss? Let me know in the comments!
