Inside the Chicago White Sox, there are two wolves.
The first is the three true outcome wolf. The South Side Smashing Machine is currently fifth in team slugging, ninth in on-base percentage and fourth in strikeouts. The latter is frustrating at times, as evidenced when Ozzie Guillén’s frustrations boiled over with Colson Montgomery after Wednesday’s 8-0 win over the Twins. My apologies to Ozzie, but I reckon a few bad swings is a fair trade for a 33-30 record, especially when you allow for the second
wolf.
Wolf Two is John McGraw’s scientific baseball of the Dead Ball Era — beanings, baserunning and bunts. This is personified by the guys like Sam Antonacci (major league leader with 13 HBPs), Luisangel Acuña (a speed demon, when he manages to get on base), and a group of guys I lovingly call the bunting gremlins: Tristan Peters, Derek Hill, Rikuu Nishida and Antonacci again. These men stand on the broad shoulders of the OG, Chase Meidroth.
This balance has put the White Sox in a unique position: The South Siders are on pace for 219 home runs and 47 sacrifice hits. This puts them within a shout of the first 200 home run/50 sacrifice hit season since the universal DH was established.
The analytics case against bunting is simple: Outs are a finite resource to a baseball team. You’re only guaranteed 27 of them. Don’t give any of them away on purpose, you idiot!
It wasn’t always like that, of course. You can trace the story of baseball through these home run-to-sacrifice ratios. For example, there have been 22 teams who have done the reverse ratio of 200 sacrifice hits and 50 home runs, and 21 of them occurred from 1920-29, the lone outlier being the 1911 Cubs.
Let’s split the difference and look at 100 HR/100 SH teams, sorted by decade:
The analytics revolution put an end to that: 47 teams have hit 200 or more home runs this decade, while no team has had 50 sacrifice hits in a season during the same time period (last season’s San Diego Padres came closest, with 48).
Starting last year, however, bunting is on the rise across baseball:
Despite this uptick, the White Sox are the only team with a realistic chance of creating the 200/50 U-DH Club:
I’ve been on the side of abolishing the bunt for more than a decade, but I have to admit I’ve begun to soften with old age (my liver is 84.) The Manfred Man began the bunting renaissance, with the do-or-die stakes of extra innings multiplying the significance of every lone run. Bunting bundled and boldness on the basepaths have been a hallmark from the bottom of the White Sox order this season, as they punch above their weight in the American League. May the wolves and the gremlins live in peace for a thousand years.
Aroooooooooooooooo!
