Welcome to the silly season of the NFL calendar. The new league year is almost here, but before then, or even some time afterwards, there is time for some somewhat off-the-wall discussions/thought experiments based on recent happenings in the NFL world. With that, let’s kick back, take an adult beverage or two, and have at it.
This past Tuesday, the Arizona Cardinals indicated that they were going to cut QB Kyler Murray. The former #1 overall pick played for the Cardinals since that draft in 2019,
even earning a nice second contract to be the potential face of the franchise. However, that hasn’t worked out as hoped. This past season, a combination of injury and ineffectiveness saw Murray relegated to the bench in favor of Jacoby Brissett. No disrespect to Brissett, but if he is seen as a better QB option than you (you = Murray), then your time in an organization is up. Arizona is making this move, even knowing that they will be carrying a massive dead cap hit.
What does that have to do with the Houston Texans? On the surface, not much. Houston appears set at QB. Stroud, even in spite of his recent playoff debacle, is seen as the unquestioned starter. Davis Mills is set to return as the team’s QB2. After that, you have 2025 6th round pick Graham Mertz, who dressed for a couple of games, but logged no significant game time. While no one would want to replace Stroud with Murray right now, there might be a possibility that Houston could add Murray as a potential backup, sending Mills out. Besides, there was a time when a few internet rumors discussed bringing Murray to Houston in 2022, so there is some history.
While this article will not advocate a position, it will present some thoughts on the following question:
Should the Texans consider bringing in Murray as a backup QB option for the Texans in 2026?
The case for:
- Cap Friendly: Right now, Houston is still over the salary cap. They’ve already made multiple cap-cutting moves with the trade of Tytus Howard and release of Jimmie Ward. After the David Montgomery trade, Joe Mixon seems like a goner. However, the Texans still need to clear space for extensions/free agents. So, expect some more roster churn. Mills carries a $7M salary and has one year left on his deal. During the 2025 season, several QB-needy teams did call Houston about Mills. Houston made the right call to not pick up the phone then. However, Houston could change their mind. Arizona is on the hook for Murray’s contract, minus whatever he signs for with a new team. If Murray is ok as a backup, Houston could sign him for the league minimum (~$1.3M), saving significant money on a key roster spot.
- Draft Capital from Mills: If Murray is brought in for the backup QB spot, Houston can then look to trade Mills for some much-needed draft capital. Houston can restructure contracts and deals, but they don’t have all that much cap space to get all the free agents. Depth and future starters will need to come from the draft. A guy like Mills, with a low cap number and proven backup QB credentials, could net Houston a solid Day 2 pick. For Caserio, that is nothing to sneeze at.
- Better Quality QB: Mills’ time in Houston has been mixed. He was drafted to be a potential starting QB, and while he was on teams that arguably none of the best QBs of all time could have made contenders, Mills just didn’t show enough to be a franchise cornerstone. While he has his moments, he isn’t a guy you can win with over the longer haul. If Stroud goes down for a longer stretch than 2 weeks, the Texans could be in serious trouble, even with that defense. As for Murray, he is flawed (more later) but if comparing between Mills and Murray, you will generally take Murray over Mills. Better overall talent, a proven starter with better results than Mills over the course of a career. Murray could be quite the backup option.
- Murray Starts His Darnold Arc: Right now, Murray must be considered one of the bigger disappointments in the game. He never elevated his game to be that worthy of the #1 overall pick. Yet, he wouldn’t be the first higher-draft QB to flame out from his original team. Sam Darnold is the current poster child for QB redemption, going from franchise savior, to bust, to journeyman, to resurrected starter to Super Bowl winning QB. Mac Jones is starting to follow a similar path, and while he is still on the 49ers as their backup, his performance in San Francisco is showing people that maybe New England was the problem, not Jones. Murray could use Houston in that fashion as a place to rebound and get back into the starting game.
The case against:
- Arizona Cut Murray for a Reason: While Murray did play well enough to earn that second contract, he never led the Cardinals to a playoff win. Despite teams with plenty of offensive and defensive talent, Murray only ever played in one playoff game, and it was a rather disastrous performance at that against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Rams. He has always faced questions about his physical stature, and that led to on-field performance issues and injuries. Additionally, there have been lingering issues about his leadership and commitment to the team. Maybe Houston gets him at a discount, but is it that much a value? Besides, if Houston has to rely on Murray for an extended time frame, do they get the two-time Pro Bowler, or will it be the recent iteration, the one that Arizona is paying over $38M to say “goodbye”?
- Replacing Mills: In 2023, when Ryans went with Case Keenum as the starter vs. Mills when Stroud was out two games with a concussion, you could have made the inference that Mills’ days in Houston were numbered. That has not been the case since then. While Mills may not offer the best numbers, especially if called upon as a relief QB in a game, Mills has been effective in the backup role. Since 2023, he is 3-0 in games where he is the starter, to include wins against playoff contenders Jacksonville and Buffalo. He knows the team and they responded to him. If Mills gets shipped out, could Murray get that same level of response from the team? The defense is powerful enough to lead to victory in the league, but you can’t completely disregard the intangibles.
- Massive Distraction Issues: The only thing a team wants less than bad headlines about the starter is too much attention on the backup. A former #1 pick like Murray could generate those headlines. The distraction element is never far from the surface in this instance. It is one of those things that if things are going well for the team, it is no issue, but if things go south, it becomes a problem.
Assessment:
Given the salary cap considerations for the Texans, the potential to upgrade at backup QB plus Houston’s rather aggressive trade actions this past week, this thought experiment does have some slight plausibility. However, the biggest factor is Murray himself. Once released, he is free to engage with any team interested in his services. There will be multiple teams on the lookout for a starting QB like him, with places like Minnesota and the New Jersey Jets leading the way. Likely, he’ll want to prove himself a starter. He won’t get that in Houston. Yet, if the market doesn’t work to his liking, then Murray considers Houston. However, the odds suggest that Mills remains the primary backup, and if Murray enters the confines of NRG in 2026, it will be as an opposing QB.
