The Toronto Raptors are in a weird spot.
From a circumstantial point-of-view, they’re not supposed to win this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is the franchise’s first playoff appearance since the 2021-22 season and the move they made at the trade deadline was for tax reasons. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers went all-in with the blockbuster acquisition of James Harden. Toronto is also without its starting point guard for the series, while its centre is fighting off a relentless back injury.
Yet, it still feels like this roster is expected to push the Cavaliers to the brink, or significant changes may occur in the off-season. The team’s payroll is similar to that of other true contenders, making it tricky to improve the questionable roster construction.
But here the Raptors are, one game away from resetting the series into a best-of-three.
Before the scheduled tip-off at 1:00 p.m. EST, here are three storylines to consider ahead of today’s matchup on TSN.
Familiar territory
Despite playing against only 23 playoff opponents during its 30-year history, Toronto is familiar with falling into an early 2-0 series deficit. It’s happened an astonishing 11 times. Ironically, the Cavaliers have won the opening two contests in each of their four playoff matchups against the Raptors.
When the Raptors win game three, they are 4-1 in the fourth contest of the series:
- Defeated the Detroit Pistons 89-83 (2001)
- Lost to the Orlando Magic 106-94 (2008)
- Defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 105-99 (2016)
- Defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 120-102 (2019)
- Defeated the Boston Celtics 100-93 (2020)
The rookie and the vet
When Collin Murray-Boyles was taken with the organization’s first top 10 pick since 2021 (Scottie Barnes), no one could have expected that he would look like a calm veteran in his first post-season experience. Murray-Boyles is averaging 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists on a hyper-efficient 72.7 per cent shooting. He’s also adding nearly one block and steal per contest.
One thing Murray-Boyles was chastised for leading into the NBA draft was how his size would hold up against taller centres. While Cleveland has outrebounded Toronto in two of three games, Murray-Boyles looks like he belongs on the court. The Cavaliers arguably have the most dynamic defensive big man duo in the Eastern Conference with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, yet Murray-Boyles looks comfortable navigating through playoff defences.
While it’s likely that Mobley rediscovers some of his defensive aura, Murray-Boyles’ effectiveness in the paint, particularly with his push-shot, should cause Cleveland to second-guess going with a smaller line-up. As long as the Cavaliers believe their best chance at winning means playing both Mobley and Allen in meaningful moments, that opens up new options made possible by the emergence of Jamison Battle.
Another way Murray-Boyles can dramatically affect the outcome is as a fulcrum in off-ball actions designed to get Brandon Ingram the ball. During numerous instances in the second and third quarters, Murray-Boyles’ screens were visibly more effective at getting Ingram open. When the Cavaliers sold out to deny Ingram, the rookie looked comfortable serving as the connector with the ball in his hands.
Mobley matters
It’s reasonable to think that one of – and probably both – Donovan Mitchell and James Harden produce a supernova-like offensive explosion at some point in the remainder of the series. Toronto has proven it can weather those storms up to a certain point. The Raptors will need RJ Barrett to continue dominating and Brandon Ingram to rediscover himself, but both asks are within the realm of possibilities.
The X-Factor could end up being Mobley. The six-foot-11 big man is averaging 19.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 60 per cent. These are within the vicinity of his regular-season numbers. Where he could swing the momentum back in Cleveland’s favour is through his defence and shooting.
Mobley can’t let Barnes and Murray-Boyles push him around in the paint. That’ll have a direct impact on whether or not the Cavaliers can improve their spacing on the offensive end with an Allen-less lineup.
His shooting will also further complicate matters for the Raptors. In the first two games, Mobley went a combined 2-for-4 from three. In game three, he finished 0-for-4 from beyond-the-arc. Toronto can’t defend everything. With the Raptors exhausting several resources on containing Mitchell and Harden, they have to hope Mobley struggles from three for the rest of the series.
