The Minnesota Vikings are on the road again in Week 3, traveling to Tampa Bay to face a desperate and dangerous Buccaneers team.
They are desperate because, at potentially 0-3, they face only about a 3% chance to recover and make the playoffs. And it’s only that high because the Houston Texans managed it last year, which was oddly their second time achieving the rare feat (2018).
Dangerous because they are arguably the NFL’s most consistently inconsistent team. It would not surprise me if they went
on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs or lost a game at home to, well, the Cleveland Browns. The range of outcomes on any given Sunday is enormous.
SETTING THE STAGE
The Buccaneers have been the big fish in the small pond that is the NFC South, winning the division three of the last four years under head coach Todd Bowles. However, their best record over that span was 10-7. They actually won the division with an 8-9 record in 2022.
The Vikings and Buccaneers have met only once in the Kevin O’Connell era, a 20-17 home loss in Week 1 of 2023. That was a frustrating game. The Vikings started slowly, but Kirk Cousins finished with 344 yards and 2 TDs. In the end, three turnovers proved too much to overcome. It was indeed a harbinger of an up-and-down, but ultimately disappointing season for the Vikings.
The game also marked Brian Flores’ first as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator. It wasn’t without drama, as Baker Mayfield later claimed he had figured out the Vikings’ defensive signals coming in from the sidelines. I suppose it’s plausible, given it was Flores’ first game and the players were in a new and incredibly complex defensive scheme. Needless to say, Mayfield won’t benefit from anything like that again on Sunday.
VIKINGS ON OFFENSE
The big news, of course, is the return of Kyler Murray. Hopefully, we can finally see what this offense can do. He should get an opportunity, as Tampa Bay’s defense has been far better against the run (4th) than the pass (21st). They’re also coming off a game in which they let Deshaun Watson have maybe his best outing since being traded to the Cleveland Browns (238 yards, 2 TDs, 121.9 QB rating). Over the first two games, they’ve allowed a whopping QB passer rating of 105.4.
Bowles also serves as the Buccaneers’ defensive coordinator, and his fondness for the blitz is no secret. After seeing the first few series in Week 1, it’s unlikely he will question that philosophy. I’d be shocked if he didn’t test Murray and the Vikings’ offensive line early and often with varied pressures. Getting home has been an issue for their defense, with just three sacks in two games. That is not good given their high blitz rate. I’d expect KOC to be ready for this and to run effective screens and quick-hitting counters. Murray’s mobility will also help.
The challenge for the Vikings offense will be to maintain its commitment to the run against a tremendous Buccaneers front that’s allowing only 75 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. Bowles wants to get you into those 3rd-and-long, predictable passing situations so he can bring the house. If things aren’t going well for Aaron Jones early, KOC may seek to manufacture plays through read-option/Murray keepers or other creative ways to stay ahead of the sticks.
There should be opportunities for Murray to make hay if the offensive protection holds up. If things go as planned, this could be the debut of what could be a scary offense. Then again, we are the Vikings. Things going as planned hasn’t exactly been our thing over the years. Let’s be optimistic, shall we?
VIKINGS ON DEFENSE
Brian Flores has the Vikings defense rolling into Week 3, allowing 12.5 points per game and ranking in the top five in DVOA. Under Flores, the Vikings have ranked #1 in blitz frequency every year of his tenure here, but this year is on another level altogether. While he previously topped out at 49.4% in 2023, he’s at an absolutely ridiculous 75% clip so far in 2026.
I’m fist-pumping the air as Frank Sinatra sings “My Way” in my head.
This philosophy will face a Buccaneers offense under new coordinator Zac Robinson that has been mediocre over the first two weeks: 16th in points, 19th in net yards, 23rd in net pass yards, and 12th in rush yards. They already have a horrible -4 turnover margin, and Baker Mayfield has taken seven sacks in two games.
In the end, Baker is going to be Baker; he’s capable of looking like the league’s MVP one game, then making a series of head-scratching mistakes the next. And while Mike Evans is gone, the cupboard isn’t bare when it comes to offensive weapons. Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka form an explosive and dangerous wide receiver combination. Cade Otton is solid at tight end. Running back Bucky Irving has a tremendous 5.4 yards per attempt so far this season.
Given the state of desperation and since this is as much of a “must-win” game as you can have in Week 3, I expect Zac Robinson to roll the dice. It’s going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win this game without a handful of explosive plays, and Baker Mayfield is not the type of guy you need to ask twice to channel his inner Nick Mullens.
What makes the Flores defense so innovative and difficult to play is that he plays like Buddy Ryan upfront but like Vic Fangio in the back end. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote a great article on it back in 2023, and it explained how Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi helped influence Flores to create something new and unique at the NFL level. Given these defensive intricacies, if Robinson and Mayfield do the Rex Grossman routine on Sunday, it could very well blow up in their faces. We shall see.
PREDICTION
I believe Todd Bowles wants to put this game on (yet) unproven Kyler Murray. He’s going to take away Aaron Jones and force Murray to show he’s comfortable with KOC’s new system. Given that it’s Week 3 of the regular season and Murray has played only 11 snaps, it’s a sensible strategy.
I’ve been on record saying Murray will have a strong season overall, but it may take time for him to truly hit his stride. The key here is to avoid turnovers. I have a hard time seeing the Buccaneers win this one without winning the turnover battle and getting some short fields. We couldn’t do that in the 2023 meeting, but we do so this time around.
Murray is solid, and the defense continues to play at an exceptional level.
Minnesota Vikings: 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 14
