Good morning Birdland,
November is usually a “paperwork” type of month in baseball. Options getting accepted or declined. Qualifying offers and arbitration decisions going out. 40-man roster shuffling. The bigger stuff tends to happen later. But whether or not we can even get to those marquee moves all depends on if/when a new CBA can be agreed to. At the moment, it’s all up in the air. But we do have some news there.
Major League Baseball has delivered a proposal that makes a couple of headline changes
from their last offer. First, the salary cap and floor system they wish to implement remains, but they have increased the threshold for both. Second, implementaion for those requirements would be delayed until 2028, giving teams one full season to become compliant.
The floor in this latest proposal has been lifted from $171.2 million to $180.2 million, while the cap has gone from $245.3 million up to $258.2 million. All of these numbers refer to the Competitive Balance Tax numbers. The Orioles CBT for 2026 was about $220 million. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Padres, Red Sox, and Cubs would have some cutting to do. Twelve other teams would need to spend, at least a little, to reach the necessary payroll, including both the Brewers and Rays.
In addition, there were several other changes or agreements from the prior proposal:
- The period to hit free agency would be reduced from six years to five years for 30-year-old players
- The qualifying offer system would be eliminated, so no more draft pick compensation attached to free agents.
- Minimum salaries would increase from $780,000 to $1 million for players with at least two years of service, and up to $900,000 for players with less than two years.
- The Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool will increase by 30% from $50 million in ‘26 to $65 million in ‘27, and then eventually to $75 million by the end of the CBA.
- The Prospect Promotion Incentive program will be expanded to allow prospects to earn their team up to two selections in their career (one domestic and one international)
- The number of times a player can be optioned in a season would be reduced from five to four and there would be no more fourth option years
- Weekly rosters would be implemented, preventing players from being optioned or outrighted during the “playing week”
- Changes to Rule 5 draft that would require players to be protected one year sooner, and would allow claiming clubs to option players to the minors.
None of this has been finalized, and it is entirely possible that much of this changes before an agreement is actually made. Many of these things are quite good for the players, but the continued presence of a cap is going to be a sticking point. Players do not want it. The owners clearly do. That single reason is why a lockout feels inevitable.
With that understood, it’s fair to say that this proposal feels more like public relations than it does a real offer from the league at this point. The changes read as very conciliatory and player friendly. And yes, there is certainly some good stuff in here. But it will be interesting to see if all of these stick should the proposed salary cap eventually be removed. Ultimately, that is the whole ball game.
Links
MLB increases cap and floor in latest proposal, sets 2028 target | MLB.com
Here are all of the details on the latest offer from the league. Younger players will probably like a lot of what is in here. More established, mid-tier players likely have serious concerns.
Notes on arbitration eligibles, Kjerstad’s exit and latest free agent projections | Roch Kubatko
It’s a shame how things worked out for Heston Kjerstad here in Baltimore. There is clearly offensive talent in him, but his health just would never cooperate for long enough to show it. Hopefully he gets a chance somewhere that can give him some extended big league at-bats to prove himself.
Improving Orioles rotation ‘absolutely on the menu’ | Orioles.com
Lather, rinse, repeat. The Orioles—and most teams, really—are always looking for pitching. The Orioles need an ace type, especially if Trevor Rogers does depart.
5 big-swing trade ideas for the Orioles to consider | The Banner
The headline is no joke! Some of these ideas would be a massive trades. Reid Detmers is mentioned, and he does feel like “The Guy” that Mike Elias would covet this offseason. Young, left-handed, under team control for a long time. It would be great. But he’s also coming off of a career-best season, and every other team sees the same thing. A deal would be expensive.
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
- Johnathan Rodríguez turns 27 today. The outfielder played in seven games for the Orioles this past season, including several starts as the team’s clean-up hitter. It was a weird season.
- Larry Bigbie is 49 years old. The O’s first-round pick in 1999, Bigbie would play parts of five seasons in Baltimore from 2001 through ‘05. Then he was traded to the Rockies in a swap for Eric Byrnes.
- Doug Corbett is 74 today. The right-handed reliever appeared in 11 games out of the Orioles bullpen in 1987.
- The late Tito Francona (b. 1933, d. 2018) was born on this day. His MLB career began with the Orioles from 1956-57. After the ‘57 season he was part of a seven-player trade with the Chicago White Sox.
This day in O’s history
1975 – Jim Palmer wins his second Cy Young Award, coming off a season in which he led the AL in wins, shutouts, and ERA.
2002 – Orioles pitcher Rodrigo López finishes second in the voting for AL Rookie of the Year. He had a 3.57 ERA over 196.2 innings. Blue Jays slugger Eric Hinske finishes first.
2014 – J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis are named Gold Glove winners at their respective positions. It’s the third straight year for Hardy and Jones, but it’s Markakis’ first win since 2011.
