The clarion call from Phillies fans is simple and clear.
Make changes. Don’t run it back.
Of course, it’s not that simple. Despite the calls for change, the vast majority of fans would love to see John Middleton
and Dave Dombrowski back up the Brinks truck and give Kyle Schwarber what will likely be the largest non-Shohei Ohtani DH free agent contract of all-time to return. They also acknowledge they have no other choice than to offer catcher J.T. Realmuto a free agent deal to return for at least another two seasons behind the plate.
Next year will be Schwarber’s age-33 season. Realmuto will be 35. They will once again join Bryce Harper and Trea Turner for their age 33 seasons next year and for multiple years beyond, if both sign. Harper and Turner have full no-trade clauses and will almost certainly be back.
In short, the Phillies’ Big 4 from the last four seasons would all return for a fifth and sixth season together, at least, if everything goes as hoped.
So how much can change between now and next year?
According to Spotrac, the Phillies already have the sixth-largest payroll commitment for next season, $192.7 million for eight players already under contract: Zack Wheeler ($42 million), Harper ($27.5), Turner ($27.2), Aaron Nola ($24.5), Nick Castellanos ($20), Taijuan Walker ($18), Matt Strahm ($7.5), and Cristopher Sanchez ($3.5). Jesus Luzardo, Alec Bohm, Jhoan Duran, Edmundo Sosa, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh all have arbitration figures that will land between $5-12 million each, so when you factor in all players who are in arbitration or pre-arb, the Opening Day estimated luxury tax payroll stands at $250 million.
Last off-season, it was expected the Phillies would make a run at some big-name free agents, most notably Juan Soto. It never came close to happening, as it became clear the front office didn’t want to go too far beyond the third luxury tax threshold. The signings of Max Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals didn’t work out. The trade for Luzardo certainly did. By the end of the season, the Phils’ 2025 luxury tax payroll was $313 million, fourth-highest in baseball.
One would expect the 2026 payroll to be close to this season’s. If that’s the case, the Phils have roughly $60-70 million to spend. While it’s likely they will move on from Castellanos in some fashion, they may not be able to shed much of his salary in doing so. Same with Walker.
Let’s say Schwarber lands a J.D. Martinez-type deal of about five years and $120 million. That’s $24 million. Realmuto is far and away the best catcher on the open market. If the Phils can make a two-year deal work for something around $15 million a season, that’s another $39 million just to retain two players who have already been in the mix, pushing the Opening Day payroll to $289 million.
That would leave about $20-30 million to make improvements. Trading away some combination of Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and/or Alec Bohm could free up payroll, moreso if they deal Bohm than Stott or Marsh. Bohm is slated to earn around $10.25 million next year, with Marsh and Stott to get about $5.5 million each. You then need to replace whoever leaves, and one would hope they won’t once again shop in the Romano/Kepler bargain bin. Stott and Marsh are cheap and, if faithfully platooned, are effective in the regular season. Both were overexposed in the playoffs once again, facing left-handed pitching too frequently.
Some will call for the Phillies to sign Pete Alonso to a free agent contract and move Harper back to right field, which would give them, for the first time ever in the Harper era, a legitimate No. 4, right-handed slugger in the lineup. They could go after Alex Bregman or Eugenio Suárez to play third base and deal Bohm away. Many want to move Trea Turner to the outfield, which would open up shortstop for prospect Aidan Miller, although that scenario seems unlikely for 2026. And there is, of course, Kyle Tucker, the only true superstar outfielder on the free agent market, whose value slipped a bit with a down second half but will undoubtedly receive a contract north of $200 million. Signing him along would catapult the Phils over the third luxury tax.
Here’s a look at the full projected roster breakdown, courtesy of Spotrac, for 2026.
After breaking down the numbers, it’s clear Dombrowski will have to get creative, or Middleton will have to hold his nose and pay a bunch of dead tax money if they want to change the mix while adding Schwarber and Realmuto back into the fold. Dombrowski reportedly tried to make a number of moves a season ago, but to no avail.
But this is why Hall of Fame general manager/team presidents get the big bucks. But fans should realize something, too.
If you bring back Turner, Schwarber, Harper and Realmuto, the main core is returning, and it’s expensive.
Just something to remember as the front office deals with conflicting and competing interests to remake the roster ahead of another crack at the playoffs a year from now.
