Bayern Munich striker and England star Harry Kane is still firmly in the running to win a Golden Boot, but it will not be easy. With a supercomputer breaking down the odds, Kane would likely need some help to overtake his three primary competitors:
- Lionel Messi, Argentina – 8
- Kylian Mbappé, France – 7
- Erling Haaland, Norway – 7
- Harry Kane, England – 6
Below, are the odds on who will win and how the supercomputer developed its odds:
Harry Kane now has a 12% chance to win the Golden Boot at this World Cup after scoring his match-winning penalty in England’s victory over Mexico. The Bayern Munich striker
is on-track to score nine goals this tournament, just behind the projected tallies of Kylian Mbappe (13), Lionel Messi (12) and Erling Haaland (10) according to the Betting Lounge supercomputer.
Kylian Mbappe’s chance of winning the World Cup Golden Boot is up to 28.5% after he netted a penalty against Paraguay in the round of 16. Mbappe’s main competition comes from Lionel Messi, who is also on seven goals and has a 26.5% chance of winning the prize. England’s Harry Kane has a 12% chance to win his second Golden Boot, just behind third-favourite for the award, Erling Haaland on 25%.
At his current rate of scoring, Mbappe is projected to put away 13 goals to level the record set by compatriot and France legend Just Fontaine in 1958 for the most goals scored in a single World Cup tournament.
Methodology
To estimate each player’s chance of winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot, a simulation-based approach was used once all players expected goal projections were modelled. Each player’s projected xG was modelled using both domestic and international data including xG per 90, shot volume, penalty conversion rates and overall conversion rate. Each team’s team strength ratings were then mapped based on their outright probability of winning the tournament, using Elo ratings to project how deep each nation will go in the tournament. From then, a Monte Carlo simulation method was used – in which 100,000 tournament simulations were completed based on the information gathered. Each % probability reflects the amount of times each player won the Golden Boot over the full course of simulations.
It would be awesome to see Kane win the award, but England will need to continue to win and Kane will have to start racking up goals to make up his current deficit.
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