Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, October 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Acrisure Bounce House — Orlando, FL
- Spread: Baylor (-1.5)
- Over/under: 48.5
- All-time series: Baylor leads, 2-1
- Last meeting: Baylor 30, UCF 3 — November 1, 2025
- Current streak: Baylor, 2 (2023-25)
Setting the scene
Baylor and UCF have only met three times, but there is no shortage of iconic moments between these programs.
UCF entered the 2013 Fiesta Bowl as a 13.5-point underdog to Big 12 champion Baylor. However, Blake Bortles led the Knights to an electrifying 52-42 victory on New Year’s Day, sealing the program’s first-ever AP Top 10 finish. Ten years later, UCF held a 35-7 lead in the late third quarter over Baylor, but the Bears rallied with 29 unanswered, surviving a wild fourth down conversion and a 59-yard
field goal attempt to hold onto a 36-35 win.
Perhaps another memorable finish awaits as the programs meet in Orlando for the 10th annual Space Game. UCF continues one of college football’s most recognizable modern traditions, rebranding to the “Citronauts” for a night and donning space-themed alternate uniforms as a nod to the university’s aeronautical roots.
The Citronauts are one of the better teams in college football history, owning an 8-1 record in Space Games and outscoring opponents by an aggregate result of 432-189:
- 2017 – UCF 63, East Carolina 21
- 2018 – UCF 52, Temple 40
- 2019 – UCF 44, Houston 29
- 2020 – UCF 51, Tulane 34
- 2021 – UCF 24, Memphis 7
- 2022 – UCF 70, Temple 13
- 2023 – UCF 45, Oklahoma State 3
- 2024 – UCF 56, Arizona 12
- 2025 – Houston 30, UCF 27
However, Houston defeated UCF in last year’s Space Game, spoiling the Citronauts’ perfect record. UCF, coming off its first top-5 victory in program history, aims to recapture its galactic momentum as Baylor strolls into the Bounce House.
Baylor Bears outlook
Baylor (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) fired head coach Dave Aranda in the middle of his seventh season in Waco. Aranda’s tenure was quite volatile, featuring highs of a 12-2 finish and Big 12 championship in 2021, but lows including a 3-9 record in 2023. The Bears lacked consistency under Aranda, improving or declining by at least three wins in every year from 2019 through 2025.
Baylor moves forward with interim Joe Klanderman, who also retains his defensive coordinator duties. In year one on campus, Klanderman has done a stellar job reforming Baylor’s defense. He implemented a 3-3-5 base scheme and vastly improved the unit, allowing them to skyrocket from 122nd to 19th in scoring defense and 122nd to 22nd in run defense. The Bears let up just 16.1 points per game, and last Saturday’s 25-24 loss to Kansas was the first time they surrendered more than 17 points all season.
The defense showed promise even in losing efforts, falling 17-16 to Auburn and 17-6 to TCU. Baylor is the best in the Big 12 at getting to the quarterback and its 3.9 sacks per game rank third nationally. There isn’t one dominant pass rusher, rather, it’s a concerted effort. Edge rusher Garrick Ponder leads the charge with 4.0 sacks while safeties Daniel Cobbs and Bo Onu are tied for second with 3.0 apiece.
With great pressure comes great chaos, and Baylor is producing takeaways at a high rate. The team ranks 15th nationally with 13 takeaways, and strong safety Micah Gifford has been omnipresent with three interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
While the passing defense has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, and forces opponents to a 59.8 completion rate, Baylor still allows 236 passing yards per game, which ranks 103rd nationally. Teams regularly hit explosives on the Bears, which have given up 13 passes of 30 yards or greater through seven games.
Last season, Baylor excelled offensively and struggled on defense. This year, the opposite is true. Outside of the 55-19 rout at Arizona State, the Bears have not been able to consistently generate points. They scored 24 or fewer points in four of seven games, and all three losses were attribute to a lack of scoring.
Still, quarterback DJ Lagway has moved the ball well for the nation’s 24th-ranked passing offense. The veteran starter averages 270 passing yards per game, delivering nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Efficiency has been an issue through the air though, and Baylor checks in at 124th in the FBS with a 56.4 completion rate.
Wide receiver Gavin Freeman operates as the main target. His 58 receptions are the second-most in the country and his 678 receiving yards rank second in the Big 12. Louis Brown and Jayden McGowan are among Lagway’s other frequented options. Baylor hasn’t been as lethal on the ground, still awaiting its first 90-yard rusher of the season. The Bears were held to 54 rushing yards against TCU and 122 against Kansas — a significant reason Baylor enters Orlando on a two-game losing streak.
UCF Knights outlook
UCF (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) is coming off a win for the ages. Although the Knights won multiple New Year’s Six bowls and secured an NCAA-recognized national championship in 2017, last Saturday’s double overtime triumph over No. 2 BYU was the program’s first-ever top-5 victory in history.
It was the long-awaited signature win of Scott Frost’s second tenure in Orlando and restored energy into a fanbase, which will certainly show up in droves for the annual Space Game.
There were moments throughout the BYU game where it appeared UCF missed a golden opportunity for an upset. However, the Knights stayed the course and won just their second October game in their last 13 tries. One of the heroes last week was quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for an additional score in the 39-31 win. After witnessing several strong performances by the FIU transfer, Frost named Jenkins the starting quarterback moving forward, even though original starter Alonza Barnett III has recovered from a Week 2 hamstring injury.
UCF has received stronger support from the passing attack in recent weeks, which has been efficient. The Knights have thrown 13 touchdowns against four interceptions, while completing 66.5 percent of attempts this year. It hasn’t been the most explosive unit, completing just seven passes spanning 30 yards and two spanning 40, but Jenkins has allowed the Knights to piece together methodical possessions.
The run game has been the hallmark of UCF’s offense all season. Running back Duke Watson is eighth in the Big 12 in rushing and averages 6.8 yards per carry. Landen Chambers has also stepped up from the backfield lately, scoring two touchdowns in last week’s win over BYU.
But the true emerging star in UCF’s offense is true freshman wide receiver Tyren Hornes. After being underutilized in September, Hornes has become one of the top options for the Knights, producing 137 yards on six receptions last Saturday. He now ranks second on the team in receiving yards behind Josh Derry, who leads all Knight receivers in catches (34), yards (358), and touchdowns (3).
Although the last two weeks were more offensive oriented games, UCF has been best on the defensive side this year. The Knights allow 23.0 points per game, allow just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt, and hold opponents to a completion rate of 58.9 percent.
However, UCF must play the Space Game without arguably its best defensive player. Strong safety Demari Henderson suffered an injury in overtime against BYU, and the team will miss his production, which includes 35 tackles, two interceptions, and five pass breakups. The Knights still have several veteran faces in the secondary including cornerbacks Antione Jackson and Jayden Bellamy, who both have one interception and one forced fumble on the season. Thanks to these defensive backs, UCF is a plus-5 in the turnover battle this season.
Prediction
Can UCF avoid a letdown after an emotional win? Signature wins haven’t been easy to follow up in college football this season. Auburn beat Georgia and then lost by 21 to LSU at home. BYU took down Notre Dame and then dropped an overtime thriller to UCF a week later. Ole Miss’ triumph over LSU was followed by a thrashing at the hands of Florida. And so on.
Baylor also had an eventful week, as the Bears move on from head coach Dave Aranda and now must respond with an interim head coach in a hostile Orlando environment. The Bears’ defense has been consistently sound this year, and UCF may struggle to come close to its Space Game average of 48 points per game. The defenses control this matchup, and the Bears prevent a successful launch with a game-winning field goal in the final minute.
Prediction: Baylor 24, UCF 21
