Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, August 29 at 9:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Shell Energy Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: UNLV (-9.5)
- Over/under: 61.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
It’s the only FBS Week 1 matchup where we game film exists for both teams. Only nine teams participated in Week 0, and Sam Houston and UNLV will be two games through their 2025 campaign before most programs run out of the tunnel for the first time.
UNLV (1-0, 0-0 Mountain West) is technically 1-0, but that victory was followed by a sigh of relief rather than an exclamation point. The reigning Mountain West runner-up, which finished ranked No. 23 last season, was expected to demolish FCS opponent Idaho
State at Allegiant Stadium. Instead, the Rebels found themselves in a track meet, escaping 38-31 after trailing by seven in the early moments of the fourth quarter.
Sam Houston (0-1, 0-1 CUSA) realized the harsh reality of returning zero defensive starters in a 41-24 loss to Western Kentucky. The Bearkats weren’t without bright spots in Phil Longo’s first game as head coach, leading in the early portion of the third quarter before a late collapse. They look to build on some successes as they return “home.”
However, Sam Houston will never truly be home this year. While Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, TX is under constructed, the Bearkats will set up shop in downtown Houston at Shell Energy Stadium — a venue primarily used for professional soccer.
UNLV Rebels outlook
The Dan Mullen era is officially underway. Mullen’s Rebels are 1-0 but far from a finished product after a disastrous defensive showing against an FCS opponent. UNLV found itself in a 10-0 hole right away due to miscommunications in coverage and inability to tackle. Those issues never exactly corrected themselves Saturday, as Idaho State produced 555 yards.
UNLV found one method of producing stops, and that involved relying on turnovers. The Rebels secured four interceptions in the victory including three in the final 24 minutes of action. All four takeaways were quite instrumental, and the penultimate one occurred in a deadlocked 31-31 game, providing the Rebels advantageous field position to secure the go-ahead touchdown.
Mullen and interim defensive coordinator Paul Guenther have the challenge this week of manufacturing stops without utilizing interceptions as a crutch. There are challenges in assembling a defense comprised of eight transfer starters with transfers operating in many of the second-string roles as well. Although Sam Houston hired an air raid disciple head coach in Phil Longo, Hunter Watson hasn’t thrown for more than 229 yards in 13 starts as a Bearkat, implying UNLV will be challenged in different ways other than a vertical passing attack this week.
Still, the Rebels need to generate more backfield pressure. Inside linebacker Marsel McDuffie produced the team’s lone sack last week in a performance featuring six tackles and an interception. The team registered two quarterback hurries in Week 0, meaning defensive ends and outside linebackers such as Chief Borders and Justin Flowe will be tasked with jump-starting that aspect of the defense Friday night.
Offensively, the Rebels exude plenty of firepower, collecting 532 yards in their opener in a balanced effort. The main question entering last Saturday asked who would start at quarterback, and Mullen chose a unique answer — both. UNLV’s first offensive played involved Michigan transfer Alex Orji handing the ball off to Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea, who instantly launched a deep ball. Colandrea handled QB1 efforts for the majority of the contest, and the fearless playmaker connected on 15-of-21 passing attempts for 195 yards and a touchdown, while adding 93 rushing yards fueled by six double-digit pickups.
Orji played recurring snaps and checked in for more rushing-oriented packages, delivering the Rebels’ game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter on an 11-yard carry. Both quarterbacks have wheels, and UNLV’s run game could be one of the best in the country this year with Jai’Den Thomas leading the show. Fresh off a 918-yard season, Thomas looked like an improved version of himself in the opener with a seamless 147 rushing yards and a hat trick of touchdowns on just 10 attempts.
Jaden Bradley — who, along with Jai’Den Thomas and left tackle Will Thomas, is one of three non-transfer offensive starters — turned heads with his offensive production as well. Bradley was the recipient of 131 of the Rebels’ 232 passing yards, capturing six receptions on seven targets.
Explosive playmakers surround Colandrea on offense, but what happens when UNLV stalls in plus territory? The Rebels missed field goals of 30 and 41 yards in a controlled environment in Vegas, which could cause concerns in tight games moving forward.
Sam Houston Bearkats outlook
Sam Houston is still navigating life after longtime head coach K.C. Keeler. The Bearkats lost plenty this offseason — a coaching staff, six offensive starters, 11 defensive starters, and a home stadium. Now it’s up to Phil Longo and his staff to reload the Bearkats, which were the only Conference USA team to notch 10 victories in 2024.
The opener at WKU featured some positives. One was quarterback Hunter Watson, who returns for his second season as Sam Houston’s starter. The Bearkats kept their No. 1 quarterback decision private until moments before kickoff vs. WKU. Although Watson didn’t have as much familiarity with Longo’s air raid systems as competitors Mabrey Mettauer and Landyn Locke, his sheer experience won him the gig and that experience showed Saturday.
Watson finished with a game-high 91 rushing yards, breaking away for a 55-yard touchdown in the second quarter and producing a handful of 5-8 yard carries throughout the contest. He’s a unique breed of mobile quarterback who relies more on toughness and grit rather than speed or agility, but it gets the job done and the Bearkats will use this attribute to their advantage in their Friday night home opener.
Another positive was the re-emergence of Alton McCaskill. Once the lead running back on a 12-2 Houston team in 2021, McCaskill suffered an ACL tear in 2022 and took a long journey back to the top of a depth chart with stops at Colorado and Arizona State. He produced 72 yards and a touchdown on 11 handoffs in the opener, and although only three attempts exceeded three yards, that explosive playmaking is exactly what the Bearkats need in this new-look offense. The run game could be accelerated with the return of All-CUSA center James Dawn II, whose status remains uncertain after missing the opener due to injury.
McCaskill’s backfield partner Elijah Green wasn’t as productive on the ground, but Green carried Sam Houston’s passing attack. He claimed seven of the team’s 19 receptions to produce 61 yards, and those running back screens will be a focal point of this Longo offense. However, the Bearkats couldn’t get their wide receivers heavily involved. Qua’Vez Humphreys (second in receiving yards in 2024) was held to one reception and Michael Phoenix II surprisingly saw zero snaps, so adjustments may be made to the aerial attack — especially considering UNLV’s struggles in defending the pass a week ago.
The key to the Bearkats is sustaining drives. Their two offensive touchdown possessions were essentially produced by 50+ yard runs, and they finished 2-of-14 on third down. While explosive plays are helpful, Sam Houston needs to find a more sustainable manner to pile on points.
Defensively, Sam Houston faced quite a challenge against WKU’s pass-happy offense, which fired 51 times on the defense for over 400 yards. UNLV presents similar explosive tendencies to WKU, and its important for Sam Houston’s secondary to have good eye discipline in coverage and not miss downfield tackles — two recurring issues in Week 0.
There were some highlights on the defense, however. One was the play of Texas State transfer Alonzo Edwards Jr. The strong safety landed a team-high eight tackles and two tackles for loss, and he forced a critical third quarter fumble, which inside linebacker JaMair Diaz returned for a go-ahead touchdown.
Prediction
Sam Houston opened its season facing an incredibly high-powered offense belonging to WKU. The Bearkats must do the same against UNLV, although the Rebels’ offense will present more balance than that of the Hilltoppers. A litany of factors must be considered — from Jai’Den Thomas’ abilities as a runner to Anthony Colandrea’s dual-threat tendencies to Alex Orji packages to Jaden Bradley’s downfield playmaking. There are so many options for Sam Houston to limit, and the Bearkats must rely on a fortunate turnover output to keep pace with the UNLV offense.
The biggest question in this game asks, how much impact the Bearkats can do to a vulnerable UNLV defense? Idaho State lit up the Rebels for nearly 400 passing yards and that isn’t exactly Sam Houston’s MO. The Bearkat offense doesn’t possess that degree of verticality; rather, it inflicts damage using the run game and a slew of screens. Phil Longo’s squad should still find its way to the end zone several times, but the revamped defense may struggled holding UNLV below 35.
Prediction: UNLV 42, Sam Houston 21
