Iowa’s win over the Iowa State Cyclones certainly was not pretty. The Hawkeyes went into the matchup favored by as many points as any game in the Cy-Hawk series in a decade. However, instead of the thrashing Iowa fans yearned for, we were given yet another slug fest in which we saw both teams trade punches down to the wire.
But an ugly win over your in-state rival is still a win and this one came stuffed with numbers worth chewing on. Here’s what stood out from the 16-13 win, what it means against
the history of this series and what it might tell us about where this team is headed.
The Kick, the Symmetry and the Series
Saturday marked the 73rd meeting all-time between the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones. While things were lopsided for a stretch a generation ago, the last nine meetings have now been decided by 10 or fewer points. Of course, the last two were won by the Clones thanks to the right foot of kicker Kyle Konrardy, who hit game-winners in Ames a season ago and in Iowa City back in 2024.
Caden Buhr’s 42-yard field goal with 15 seconds left gave Iowa their narrowest margin of victory in this series since the 18-17 victory in Ames back in 2019. While there have been some close ones and the Cyclones have needed game-winners in each of the last two meetings, the Hawkeyes haven’t won via final drive field goal in this series in the modern era.
The game-winner gives Hawkeye fans some symmetry with the 16-13 final exactly matching the score in Ames after Konrardy hit the game winner in that one. Iowa is now 47-25 all-time against the Cyclones.
Buhr’s kick gave Iowa its 10th win since 2015 on a field goal in the final 30 seconds of the fourth quarter. The previous one: Drew Stevens, 44 yards vs. Michigan State last November.
The Cleanest Cy-Hawk You Will Ever See
While this thing has become an absolute slop-fest over the years with limited scoring and mistakes making the difference, things were incredibly clean on Saturday night. Neither team recorded a sack and neither team turned the ball over.
The turnover battle has decided this series for two decades, but for one night, nobody flinched. Iowa is 76-5 across all games since 2012 when winning the turnover battle. The Cyclones have had at least one turnover in El Assico every year since…. 2006.
It’s also worth calling out the penalties. New head coach Jimmy Rogers cited the flags postgame in his first loss with the Cyclones. They were flagged 6 times for 45 yards, but things could have been much worse. Rogers’ Wazzou team was flagged an average of 7 times per game a season ago and ranked 84th in penalty yardage per game.
While they managed to escape Kinnick without a single false start, they certainly played with fire on multiple occasions.
The Balance Shift Nobody Noticed
Inside Kinnick and around the comment sections, there seemed to be plenty of angst over the play-calling and what some perceived as a reversion to the classic KF style. We had all hoped Tim Lester would have full control of this offense and it seemed like perhaps that wasn’t the case on Saturday night with more conservatism than we’d like in a game where Iowa was favored so heavily.
But the numbers tell a slightly different story. Iowa threw 30 passes and ran the ball 29 times. In a one-score game. In 26 games across 2024-25, Lester’s offense threw as often as it ran exactly twice and both came while chasing losses.
Saturday marked just the second time under Lester that Iowa out-threw its run total and won. The other? Week one against Northern Illinois.
In year one under Lester, Iowa 20 passes against 38.5 runs per game. In 2025, with a running Gronowski under center, the split moved to 22 passes to 38.8 runs per game. This year? Iowa is averaging 35 passes to 33.5 runs per game.
Part of the shift in game two was necessity. Iowa’s running game was largely contained, finishing with just 93 yard as Kamari Moulton managed only 57 on 15 carries with a long of seven – Hank Brown’s nine-yard scramble was the longest run of the day.
That’s a sharp drop from Week 1, when Moulton rushed for a career-best 183 yards. He did leave Saturday early, though Ferentz said postgame that Moulton “seemed fine,” and seemed to indicate on Tuesday that he is questionable this weekend.
Hank Brown Settled the QB Job, Right
Iowa released its official depth chart on Monday afternoon and Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are listed with the vaunted “OR” at the starting spot. That tracks with the “neck and neck” conjecture we heard all camp and the assertion this thing would bleed well into the season.
But it seems pretty disconnected from reality after Saturday, where Brown took every offensive snap for the Hawkeyes with Hecklinski watching from the sidelines. Brown finished 21-for-30 with 191 yards and rushed for 22 yards and Iowa’s lone touchdown.
While the lack of touchdowns and overall yardage don’t seem to suggest anything is locked in, the two numbers to know there these:
100 – as in 100% of the snaps despite a slow start on offense
70 – as in 70% completion percentage
That was Iowa’s first 70% game on 30+ attempts since Spencer Petras against Northwestern in October 2022, and the first in a win since Petras at Maryland in 2021. The Hawkeyes didn’t have a QB complete 70%+ of his passes in any game in 2020, 2023 or 2024.
Through two weeks Brown has completed 33 of 50 passes for a 66% completion percentage – a number that would be the highest for the Hawkeyes over the last three seasons (48.9% in 2023, 62.7% in 2024, 62.9% in 2025).
Tony Diaz Is Tracking Toward History
The Boogeyman made his Iowa debut in style with 15 targets for 7 catches, 84 yards and a TD. It was the most any WR had been targeted in a debut performance in the KF era.
So it stood to reason the Cyclones would do their best to take him away in week two and given the size and athleticism Iowa State boasts at corner, that was perhaps the expecation.
The reality? Diaz did more in week two than week one. He was targeted 12 times against Iowa State, amassing 95 yards on eight catches.
Even more notable, he hauled in a 56-yard bomb from Brown that was the longest pass by the Hawkeyes since Kaleb Johnson’s 72-yard screen touchdown against Nebraska in November 2024.
Diaz is in elite company when it comes to Iowa WRs and he is single-handidly changing the narrative on the passing game. He is the only Hawkeye pass catcher in the pass-charting era (dating back to 2011) to have 12+ targets in back-to-back games. His 15 catches through his first two games are the most by any Iowa WR since Kevonte Martin-Manley in 2014. The only Hawkeyes with more than his 179 receiving yards through two games? Matt VandeBerg’s 228 yards in 2016 and Marvin McNutt’s 201 in 2011.
The pace math is absurd for Iowa: 7.5 catches per game works out to 90 over the regular season. The program record is 82 (Kevin Kasper in 2000, matched by Marvin McNutt in 2011). No Iowa receiver has caught even 60 passes in a season since VandeBerg’s 65 in 2015.
Things will surely slow down as the defenses get tougher, but the narrative on Iowa’s passing game is being flipped in front of our eyes.
Defense, Betting and the Week Ahead
Iowa held Iowa State to 13 points and one touchdown, allowing just three points in the second half. The Cyclones managed just four first downs in the second half and went three-and-out on three of its final five possessions.
Iowa State did total 138 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per attempt. That may be a bit more of a concern given the Cyclones’ struggles on the ground against SEMO. But Jaylen Raynor finished just 10-of-19 for 117 yards through the air and Hank Brown actually out-rushed him on the night.
Season-to-date, Iowa has allowed 13 points and one offensive touchdown in two games. They’re top-10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense and passing defense and still sit 18th nationally in rush defense despite the week two performance.
We were nervous about a step back in Phil’s group heading into the year and while there were some minor struggles in week two, they’re performing right on par with prior seasons to this point.
That strong defense has led to two straight unders hitting while Iowa has split on covering the spread. This week, the Hawkeyes opened as a 41.5-points favorite in a game with an over/under set at 48.5 total points according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under head coach Kirk Ferentz, Iowa is now 2-10 against the spread when favored by more than a touchdown against Iowa State after failing to cover last week. Against the Panthers, the Hawkeyes haven’t won by less than a touchdown except for the infamous two blocked FG game back in 2009.
While Iowa is 17-1 all-time against UNI, they haven’t lost to the Panthers since the turn of the 20th century. They’ve only won by 40+ three times in the series. The first two came over a century ago with a 69—0 thumping in 1900 and the widest margin of 95-0 coming in 1914. The largest moder-era differentialcame in a 66-0 drubbing back in 1997.
The Hawkeyes and Panthers are set to kick off at 3:05 pm CT on FS1.
Go Hawks!
