In 2022, everyone watched Yordan Alvarez hit a middle-middle José Alvarado sinker over the batter’s eye in game six of the World Series. In 2023, everyone watched Alek Thomas take a 93.8 miles per hour
Craig Kimbrel four-seam fastball to right field in game four of the National League Championship Series.
In 2024, despite having two all-stars, a stable ninth inning arm in Carlos Estévez, and a very good Orion Kerkering, the bullpen imploded against the New York Mets and near single-handedly took the Phillies out of October in just four games.
Then, 2025 saw those bullpen moments creep all over the regular season. Jordan Romano put up an 8.23 ERA with the Phillies, Matt Strahm and Kerkering took steps back, Alvarado got suspended for a failed drug test, and the club failed to develop in-house backup plans. There was no Jeff Hoffman or even Andrew Bellatti to help.
So, even after signing David Robertson, Dave Dombrowski went for the kill shot. Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel were shipped to Minnesota for Jhoan Duran.
2025 (Phillies) Stats
20.2 innings, 2.18 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 33.3% strikeout rate, 1.2% walk rate, 0.92 WHIP
The Good
Jhoan Duran was already one of baseball’s rare lockdown closers with the Minnesota Twins but he took another step after joining the Phillies.
The first notable change comes with his four-seam fastball. He started throwing a tick harder and it started making the pitch nearly impossible to hit and a real swing and miss weapon. Here is a comparison between his four-seam fastball’s time with the Twins and the Phillies
Twins: 100.2 mph, .317 xwOBA, 28.3% whiff rate, 92.9 mph exit velocity, 46.3% hard-hit rate
Phillies: 101.3 mph, .199 xwOBA, 42.3% whiff rate, 90.7 mph exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate
Having this good of a four-seam fastball makes you impossible, especially when you have the secondary offerings like Duran. His curveball played just as well as it did with the Twins and hitters kept struggling to get his splinker off the ground.
From a counting stats standpoint, he struggled a bit after the Phillies locked in a playoff seed, but in his first 18 games with the Phillies, Duran had a 1.15 ERA and 0.46 FIP. He was pitching better than prime Mariano Rivera!
With an additional two years of club control remaining, the Phillies solidified their closer role (assuming good health).
The Bad
On a three-two count to Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts with the bases loaded, Duran missed his fastball high, and Justin Dean was able to walk home. Game tied 1-1.
It is not entirely Duran’s fault that this was his only high-leverage appearance of the series. It’s certainly not Duran’s fault that Cristopher Sánchez couldn’t get a called third strike against Alex Call. It’s not his fault for Orion Kerkering’s lasting moment on an Andy Pages dribbler.
But he did walk Mookie Betts in his biggest outing of the season, and the Phillies needed every little break to steal this game.
Los Angeles struggles were a theme for Duran this year. Duran allowed three pull-side home runs all year. Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages… and Heriberto Hernández against the Marlins? Ohtani and Pages happened in Los Angeles, of course.
If you want to have the most irrational doomsday thought in the world, maybe Duran is the new Jonathan Broxton in the Phillies-Dodgers brewing rivalry.
The Future with the Phillies
Duran will obviously return to the club and have the closer role for the foreseeable future. While Duran is represented by Scott Boras, the Phillies could still look to get him to sign an extension. With the uncertainty of the next CBA and the injury history for hard-throwing relievers, Duran might be wise to lock in a contract early. It might seem like a stretch, but it’s worth a thought.
The Phillies might be able to get him to sign something below market value and have an established support system in place that has kept pitchers healthy. They’ve gone into every October of this run with a healthy bullpen and durable starting pitchers. There is reason to believe they make Duran an outlier.
If Duran is here beyond his team control years, he may go down as the greatest closer in the club’s long history. He has stuff that the Phillies haven’t had in their bullpen since Billy Wagner, the pedigree from his time with the Twins, and is only 27 years old. If Duran is here over the next five seasons, he should break Papelbon’s saves record, right?
