The 7-7 Carolina Panthers, with today’s loss to the New Orleans Saints, are tied again with the 7-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Technically, they are second in the NFC South. They have multiple paths to the NFC South title from here and are still, very barely, in control of their own destiny.
NFC South
Apparently, nobody wants to win this division. That’s my big takeaway from the last week of football. The Bucs look tired, the Panthers look like they still haven’t figured out how to tie their shoes every day, and
the 4-10 New Orleans Saints might legitimately be the best team in the division.
For the Panthers to win the division, they have to at least split their games against the Bucs. Likely, they will need to sweep them.
Splitting the Bucs
A 1-1 or 0-0-2 record against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the next three weeks will see the Panthers into the playoffs IF the Bucs LOSE to the Miami Dolphins and the Panthers WIN against the Seattle Seahawks. Fun fact, the Seahawks could be the projected first seed in the NFC when they play the Panthers. Carolina is 2-0 against projected first seeds this season. They are also 0-2 against the New Orleans Saints, so who knows.
A winning record against the Bucs
This is the simplest path forward and where the Panthers destiny is in their hands. Win and they are in. Even a 1-0-1 record against Tampa Bay with a Tampa Week 17 win and a Panthers Week 17 loss sees the Panthers winning the division with an 8-8-1 record. Fun fact, that is the only way to get to a .500 record in a 17-game season.
The fourth seed
Despite today’s unlikely, yet inevitable performance, the Panthers still have a technical path to climb to the third seed in the NFL playoffs. Doing so would require the Panthers to win out and finish with a 10-7 record while a complicated series of results, including a Bears vs Packers tie in Week 16, are required to jump Carolina ahead of a lot of teams that are already at nine wins and are all but guaranteed to make the playoffs.
It’s possible in the same way that Bryce Young converting a 4th & 1 on a QB sneak is possible.
The wildcard?
With today’s loss, and a handful of other results around the league, the Carolina Panthers have been eliminated from wildcard contention. They either win the NFC South, or they miss the playoffs.
The Panthers paths to the playoffs:
- 10 wins is a first place finish in the NFC South
- 8-8-1 with an 1-0-1 record against the Bucs is a first place finish for the Panthers.
- 9-8 with two wins against the Bucs is a first place finish for the Panthers.
- 9-8 with one win against the 8-9 Bucs and one win against the Seahawks is a first place finish for the Panthers.
- Any scenario with two losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is an elimination from the playoffs.
