The Portland Trail Blazers advanced to the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs last night by virtue of a 114-110 win over the Phoenix Suns in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament. It’s a benchmark of success for a team that set making the postseason as its goal at the start of the year. They made it!
That’s the good news. Here’s the bad. By virtue of their appointment, the 7th-seeded Blazers will face the 2nd-seed San Antonio Spurs, winners of 62 games, in what looks like a lopsided mismatch of a series.
The main reason for that mismatch is French center Victor Wembanyama. The first-overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Wemby stands 7’4, earns constant consideration for Defensive Player of the Year, and entered the fringes of the NBA MVP conversation this season by scoring 25 points per game as easily as he’d sniff daisies in a mountain meadow.
Hope springs eternal among Portland fans, of course. About five seconds after the Blazers earned their spot this question came into the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag:
Dave,
Yes! We won! The playoffs are back!
The thing I am looking forward to most is Cling Kong going up against Wemby. Donovan is one of the best defenders in the league. We’re going to match up better than most people think. I can’t want to see Clingan clash against Wemby! How do you see this playing out?
Trevor
Oh Trevor, my sweet, summer child…not well.
First of all, there’s a rule in playoffs series. The team with the best player has a huge advantage. With all due respect to Deni Avdija, Wembanyama is the best player in this series by far. He’s a physical marvel. He’s not just a 7-footer, he’s 7’4. That makes him one of the tallest players to ever play the game. But he has quickness, hops, he’s lithe and agile. Almost invariably people describe him as a guard in the body of a center. Plus he’s smart. He understands how to get his own shot and how to set up teammates. That’s a lot of tools for one oversized, physically-gifted center.
Donovan Clingan has had a GREAT season. I fully anticipate that next year, he’s going to be mentioned on the regular as a force in this league. But Clingan’s wheelhouse is the lane. He’s huge, bulky, intimidating. When he gets outside of the paint, his utility decreases.
It’d be one thing to pull out the old saw of, “Wembanyama can bring him out to the arc and shoot threes.” That’s true. Wemby’s 35% success rate beyond the arc will force Clingan to the perimeter. The heart of Portland’s defense is going to spent a lot of time 22 feet away from the bucket. That’s going to inhibit Donovan’s shot-blocking and rebounding. But that’s only the beginning of the nightmare.
Wembanyama isn’t limited to the three-pointer. Unlike almost every other center in the league—certainly unlike all the 7-foot-tall ones—Wemby has the ability to put the ball on the floor and drive past Clingan if Donovan closes on him. That puts Portland in a terrible position. If they don’t sent anybody to help, he’ll score. He can pull up or just soar in for the dunk (seemingly from about 15 feet out because of that infernal wingspan). But if the Blazers do send help, Wemby is tall enough to see over the defense and get the ball to whomever Portland just left open. Remember, he’s a skilled passer along with everything else he does.
Portland’s defense without Clingan isn’t anything to write home about. Portland’s defense with Clingan getting tied up in knots is an exercise in futility. That’s exactly what Wembanyama will do in this series.
On the other end, the Blazers will have to make a choice about how to use Donovan. He can shoot threes almost as well as Wemby: 34%. That’s fine. But keeping Clingan on the perimeter takes away his offensive rebounding, a key aspect of Portland’s offense. It might bring Wembanyama out of the lane, but bringing him to the perimeter is not the same as bringing Clingan out there for a couple reasons:
- Wembanyama is quick enough to recover and defend the lane even if he starts the possession outside. He’s not averaging 3+ blocks per game because he’s tall, but because he’s tall and fast.
- It’s likely Wembanyama will just sag off of Clingan anyway, putting him closer to the bucket to begin with. I imagine the Spurs will live with whatever offense Donovan produces as long as it isn’t accompanied by a ton of offensive boards. They don’t care if DC scores 20 as long as it comes on long shots and Wembanyama can roam free on defense otherwise.
For these reasons, it’s likely that Clingan will have a bad time against Wembanyama despite his size and defensive prowess. But that’s ok…nobody really has a good time facing Wemby.
The only counter I can see to these things—and it probably won’t work either, but it’s a counter—is to go smaller. I don’t think Portland can bench Clingan entirely. They’ll lose all their rebounding and half of their defense if they try. Besides, Wemby would just post up the 6’8 player the Blazers used in Donovan’s place. But there is a world in which Clingan defends whatever player the Spurs keep near the basket, letting a smaller teammate take Wembanyama at the arc. Wemby will be able to loft threes, but he shouldn’t be able to put the ball on the floor and cause chaos. Portland can probably live with that.
On the other end, offensive rebounds are the big measuring stick. Even if Wembanyama generates a big statistical advantage over Clingan otherwise, can Donovan still work the offensive glass, perhaps taking advantage of the opponent leaving him to chase blocks? If so, then those extra possessions will provide at least a small counterpunch to the Wembanyama flurry.
But either way, the fact that we’re spending 1000 words on how the Blazers need to deal with their huge opponent problem instead of writing how San Antonio has to compensate for what Portland brings tells you everything you have to know about this matchup. This center battle isn’t Clyde Drexler going up against Michael Jordan back in 1992, which didn’t turn out great anyway. This is more like Buck Williams trying to take on Mike. Buck was a great player, dominant in his own way. But he didn’t have the tools, speed, or range to deal with the likes of Jordan. It’s likely to be the same way with Wembanyama and Clingan. Unless the Blazers pull something miraculous out of their hat, their unsolved Wemby problem is going to cast a very big shadow over this series.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
